I’ve made it known over the years that I hate mock drafts, especially too early ones. However, it is a fun exercise for two reasons: how is my evaluation, and where are these guys looking at getting drafted right now? A lot of this particular mock draft (0.5 because of its incompleteness) is focused on the non-playoff teams and who they could be looking at on Draft Day.
Remember – so much is subject to change, and it will be based on the free agency cycle and trades that could pop up out of the blue. Regardless, we’re going to throw a couple of potential trades into the mix and see what we can come up with for the first 18 picks of the 2023 NFL Draft.
Here are a few interesting notes to point out before we begin;
- The last time the Chicago Bears drafted first overall was 1947, when they selected running back Bob Fenimore out of Oklahoma State. Fenimore would play in only ten games, running for 189 yards and scoring three touchdowns.
- The last time the Detroit Lions had back-to-back seasons with multiple first-round picks was 2009-2010, when they selected Matthew Stafford (1), Brandon Pettigrew (20), Ndamukong Suh (2), and Jahvid Best (30). Last year, the Lions selected Aidan Hutchinson (2) and Jamison Williams (12).
- The last time the Indianapolis Colts selected a quarterback in the first round was when they took Andrew Luck first overall in 2012. They took one quarterback 4th overall in 1982, Art Schlicter, who ended up playing just 13 career games.
- The last time the Las Vegas Raiders drafted a quarterback in the first round, they were in Oakland and took Jamarcus Russell in 2007 with the first overall pick. Russell, to this day, is still considered one of the biggest busts in NFL Draft history. They have drafted seventh overall three times, the last time being in 2009 when they took wide receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey.
Let’s get into it.
1. Chicago Bears – EDGE Will Anderson Jr, Alabama
The Bears are set on Justin Fields as their quarterback, at least for now. They have made that very clear so far this year. Personally, I would have said this offseason that I’m iffy about my quarterback situation to see if I could get the Texans (or anyone else) to bite and trade up to get their guy, but I digress.
Will Anderson Jr makes so much sense right here for the Chicago Bears. Their current pass rushers are Trevis Gipson, Dominique Robinson, and Al-Quadin Muhammad. It’s not a group that gets you excited for next year, even with young, developing talent.
Chicago struggled to get after the quarterback last year. The decision to move Robert Quinn in a trade to the Philadelphia Eagles didn’t ever make much sense, but it certainly didn’t help their pass rush. I mean, for crying out loud, rookie safety Jaquan Brisker led the team in sacks (4.0)! The Bears generated just 43 quarterback hits and 20 sacks over 18 games.
Anderson is a freak of nature. His ability to line up across the defensive formation and get after the pass rusher is special. He posted tremendous numbers in 2021, setting conference records for sacks and tackles for loss in a season, which garnered him a ton of attention after that in 2022. The Bears would have a faster, leaner version of Khalil Mack again to anchor on that defense.
2. Houston Texans – QB Bryce Young, Alabama
There are so many people who are all up in arms about the potential of Will Levis, or CJ Stroud, that they look right past the obvious best passer in this entire class.
Oops, did I say the quiet part out loud?
Bryce Young is a tremendous playmaker who will succeed at the next level as long as he’s on the field. The tape shows that Bryce Young is a tremendous improviser. He has a solid arm, solid athletic ability, and can see the field exceptionally well. I think a quarterback has to have two “calling cards,” or elite traits, to be a great NFL quarterback. Young has those. The problem is his size and lack of frame, which gets a lot of knocks from anyone who knows anything about football.
Young’s proven he’s fairly durable in the toughest conference in football, starting a full two seasons and missing one game with a shoulder sprain. His traits, accuracy, ball placement, and playmaking ability should trump the size concerns, and I think the Texans will pull the trigger on their franchise quarterback here.
3. Detroit Lions (Projected from Arizona) – DT Jalen Carter, Georgia
Projected trade: Detroit sends 6th overall, 49th overall, and 193rd overall to the Arizona Cardinals for the 3rd overall and a 2024 5th-round selection.
The Arizona Cardinals do not land the vaunted Sean Payton because Payton does not want to work with Kyler Murray. I think it’s very clear that Murray would not work with Payton anyways. The two personalities would clash horribly. With the quarterback’s input on the coaching search, Payton will not be in Arizona, so the Saints will not land the third overall pick. Instead, because of their awful cap situation, I think Arizona trades back. They need players badly – cheap, rookie contracts will help do the job.
With that out of the way, let’s get into the pick! Detroit looks to complete their defense, which showed incredible promise this year, with the final piece of the defense – Jalen Carter, the inside presence. Detroit has gotten phenomenal play from several pieces over the last year – first-round pick Jeff Okudah, finally healthy and playing up to his billing, strong seasons from pass rushers Aidan Hutchinson and James Houston, and a sturdy inside presence from Malcolm Rodriguez. Now, the Lions can address the interior with a versatile and dominant force who gets after the football – and to move up three spots, they didn’t have to give up their second first-round pick.
4. Indianapolis Colts – QB Will Levis, Kentucky
Do the Indianapolis Colts swing the fences at another veteran quarterback, or is it time to start the rebuild fresh? After the Philip Rivers, Carson Wentz, and Matt Ryan experiences, the Colts are ready for fresh blood. They also know that Sam Ehlinger is not the answer. With all of the money they will still owe Matt Ryan, it’s hard to believe they’re going after a high-dollar veteran.
I don’t believe there is much doubt that the Colts will go with a quarterback. The question at this point is, who will the Colts like more? If Jim Harbaugh gets the job there, Will Levis makes a ton of sense and fits the stereotype that Harbaugh has always liked in his system. Levis is mobile, he’s big, he’s tough, and he has a good arm. I don’t think Levis is ready to start in 2023, but he may get pressed into action early as teams become desperate. The Colts are there and will probably spend a season breaking Levis in with trial by fire.
5. Seattle Seahawks (from Denver) – EDGE Myles Murphy, Clemson
Seattle has a free pick here, and they are looking to bolster their pass rush against a traditionally solid division of quarterbacks. Right now, they’re projected to bring back Alton Robinson, Darrell Taylor, and Boye Mafe. It’s a solid group, but imagine being able to rotate those guys through with Myles Murphy?
Myles Murphy simply looks like a Seattle Seahawk. I mean, he has the athleticism and length they traditionally love at that position. He’s better than anyone else on that unit right now and can step in and start immediately. With the rest of the defensive line that they have (Shelby Harris, LJ Collier), they immediately have one of the best defensive line rotations in the league. This is an extra pick for the Seahawks, anyways. Make something a strength for the forseeable future.
6. Arizona Cardinals (from LA Rams projected through Detroit) – DT Bryan Bresee, Clemson
The Arizona Cardinals are losing a stud defensive lineman in JJ Watt, who announced his retirement from the NFL two weeks before the closing of the 2022 season. While this does help the Cardinals cap situation tremendously, it doesn’t help their defensive line, that was pretty stellar through 2022. They generated 36 sacks, led by Watt’s 12.5, and featured three players with more than 20 quarterback pressures (per Pro Football Reference).
With Cameron Thomas on the roster, the Cardinals are going to build from the trenches back and make sure their team is dominant from there. Bryan Bresee fits that billing perfectly. Bresee, while obviously not at the same level as JJ Watt, is much of the same type of player. He’s a three-tech who can play all across the line and win repetitions – then has the athleticism to get after the quarterback. In 912 career college snaps, Bresee has eight sacks and 39 quarterback pressures, per PFF – which is pretty good.
Bresee steps in and helps fill the void immediately left by JJ Watt.
7. Las Vegas Raiders – QB CJ Stroud, Ohio State
The Las Vegas Raiders made it clear that they are not retaining the services of Derek Carr and as a result will have to take a massive salary cap hit to move him out of the team. That means that a veteran quarterback not already on the roster is probably off of the table. I think the Raiders were encouraged by what they saw from Jaret Stidham at the end of the season. Granted, no one thinks he’s a franchise quarterback, but a bridge quarterback? That could make sense.
Enter CJ Stroud, the Ohio State quarterback who still hasn’t officially declared for the NFL Draft (knock on wood). Stroud is projected by most in the media as a first round pick – and while I agree with the projection, I still don’t think he’s that level of player. But, desperate teams reach for need, and the hapless Raiders couldn’t be more desperate. They were not in a position to trade for a higher pick and were forced settling for a guy with traits and hope that they hit. I think that Stidham is a potentially solid bridge quarterback, but Stroud will see the field by the end of 2023.
8. Atlanta Falcons – CB/S Kelee Ringo, Georgia
Let’s be straight for a moment before we really get into this pick. You heard it here first. Kelee Ringo, love him or hate him, is going to shoot up NFL Draft boards in March. His testing is going to be through the roof and his tape has first round talent written all over it. Ringo can play both cornerback and safety and versatility is exactly what the Falcons need to help bolster their secondary.
AJ Terrell has done a terrific job with the Falcons since joining the organization. Now, it’s time for the Falcons to shore up the other side and start running the coverages that the rest of the league will be running by storm.
9. Carolina Panthers – EDGE Isaiah Foskey, Notre Dame
The Carolina Panthers have a lot of issues that they have to address, and collecting edge rushers isn’t really one of them. But come on, have you seen Isaiah Foskey? The thought of him on one side and Brian Burns on the other is concerning to any offense in the game.
Foskey is a very talented finesse rusher who gets after the passer with speed and determination. While most of the attention he has received as a prospect has been from his pass-rushing prowess, Foskey is also a talented run defender and sturdy tackler. As the Panthers settle into their offense, which they have to feel comfortable about right now, Foskey is an addition and welcomed piece to their pass rushing unit.
10. Philadelphia Eagles (from New Orleans) – LB Henry To’o To’o, Alabama
The linebacker position was the only weak spot on the Eagles last year. They weren’t bad, either. They just really could use an upgrade. TJ Edwards is instinctive but not as athletic as most linebackers, and Kyzir White is… Well, Kyzir White. It’s a good unit, but not great.
With Nakobe Dean on the rise, the Eagles could upgrade the position and bolster the group as a whole by investing in another instinctive linebacker, this time turning to Nick Saban and the heart of his defense – Henry To’o To’o. The Eagles defense requires rangy linebackers who can roam the middle of the field with instincts and versatility – something both Dean and To’o To’o can do very well.
11. Arizona Cardinals (Projected from Tennessee) – CB Joey Porter Jr, Penn State
Projected trade: Arizona sends WR DeAndre Hopkins to Tennessee Titans for 11th overall and 2024 3rd Round picks.
In an effort to clear some valuable cap space and initiate the rebuild, the Arizona Cardinals send away DeAndre Hopkins and his big contract to the Tennessee Titans as they continue to build an arsenal of picks in the 2023 NFL Draft.
Teams in cap trouble, I predict, will be doing this in this particular draft class. As the effects of the covid eligibility begin to wear off, players cycle through, and this could be the deepest class across the board that the league sees for a long time.
Regardless, the Cardinals turn to the secondary this time, adding another weapon which is the best cornerback in the class, in my evaluation. Joey Porter Jr is another level of man coverage, teach-tape cornerback. He’s physical, not afraid to press, not afraid of size, and has the athleticism and body control to stay with anyone.
12. Houston Texans (from Cleveland) – TE Michael Mayer, Notre Dame
Building around the offense will be critical for the Texans, who suffered from one of the worst offenses in football last year. They finished 30th in points, 31st in total yards, and 31st in first downs. After adding a quarterback in Bryce Young, who will be their franchise star, the Texans get him one hell of a security blanket in Michael Mayer.
Mayer is an unbelievable player. His ability, just as a route runner, is almost unreal, creating play opportunities with every route he runs. His athletic ability at his size makes him a valuable target for anyone looking for that type of a receiver. While Mayer is going to be able to stretch the field and be a deep threat, his real danger will be as a Travis Kelce-like receiver, working a lot underneath and creating substantial run after catch gains.
13. New York Jets – OT Peter Skoronski, Northwestern
What a dissapointing end to a promising season for the New York Jets. The eventual collapse of the team led by the appearingly insufferable Zach Wilson forced the Jets into one of the leagues worst offenses combined with one of the leagues best defenses. What was that old phrase again? Defenses win championships? As nice as that mantra sounds, it didn’t work for the New York Jets.
It’s hard for me to justify tackles coming off of the board, even with their projections, because I don’t believe that there is a first-round tackle in this entire class. The only reason that I have projected them here is because of the need for tackles in the league and the fact that need often drives players up boards.
Peter Skoronski clearly has some positives to his game. Arm length will be a concern once he officially measures at the Combine, and I think he’s susceptible to a good outside move and speed rush. Part of that is his lack of arm length, those extra inches make it that much harder for him to better set and contain an edge rusher. I think Skoronski ends up being a solid guard, but will struggle his first couple of years in the NFL as a tackle.
14. New England Patriots – S Christopher Smith, Georgia
It was a wild season for the New England Patriots, an uncustomary roller coaster ride. After a 1-3 start, the Patriots won five of their next six before dropping five of their last eight, a Monday night loss to the Chicago Bears cost them a playoff appearance, dropping their final record to 8-9. Bill Belichick returns for his 24th season as the head coach of the New England Patriots, an absurd number of seasons, but the real question still remains – how much longer will he actually be there?
Christopher Smith plays like a Patriot, and he happens to be coming out around the end of the McCourty twins career. Obviously, they have a very talented safety in Kyle Dugger, but adding Smith would be a very Belichick-like move to sure up his secondary and back end. I’m sure Steve Belichick is all for it, too. Smith has a nasty hit, plays with a lot of speed, and is rangy and instinctive. The Patriots might be the only team with a first round grade on him, but they’ve always shown that they never care what the rest of the league thinks.
15. Green Bay Packers – OT Matthew Bergeron, Syracuse
One of the biggest problems in Green Bay this year has been the lack of protection that they have been able to provide their quarterbacks. David Bakhtari was only able to start eleven games this season, and with injuries across the line, Yosuah Nijman ended up having to start thirteen games. I think that’s reason enough for the Packers to think that they have to go with bolstering their offensive line.
As I mentioned earlier, I don’t think Matthew Bergeron is a first-round player because I don’t believe there is a true first round tackle in this class. I can see him going in the first round as teams reach for players at this point in important positions. As we’ve discussed before on this site, there are three positions that teams will consistently reach for because they are so valuable – quarterback, edge rusher, and offensive tackle. Everything comes back to the quarterback.
Bergeron is an intriguing lineman prospect, mostly because of his size and quickness at the position. That being said, he really struggled in the games when he played against NFL-level defensive linemen, and that will be a cause for concern with teams across the board. I think the Packers feel they just need a right tackle right now, someone who could potentially develop to the left side (or just anchor the right side) and Bergeron makes sense for that spot.
16. Washington Commanders – LB Nolan Smith, Georgia
Washington is caught in a tough space, and that’s the limbo otherwise known as “quarterback purgatory.” While they clearly have talent across the board and a good roster, the lack of an effective and efficient quarterback prevents them from taking the next step as a team. Now, they perform well enough to pick outside of the top ten – but that’s a double blessing/curse because now they can’t get a top-end quarterback that they need without paying a kings ransom for the spot.
Washington is in no rush with their first round pick, and are more than capable of waiting for a great player like Nolan Smith, who is a stout run defender as well as an explosive pass rusher.
17. Pittsburgh Steelers – LB Andre Carter II, Army
One thing was proven this year in Pittsburgh – when TJ Watt is not on the field, the entire defense plays differently. It’s not that the Steelers don’t have the pass rushers to get after the quarterback when he’s not playing, because they do. Alex Highsmith led the team with 14.5 sacks, Cameron Heyward followed behind with 10.5.
I know what Steelers fans are thinking. “What about the offense? We need to fix the offense!” Well, to be honest, the success of the offense is predicated on the growth and development of Kenny Pickett at this point. The weapons and the tools are all there, and I don’t think there’s really an upgrade to be found in the NFL Draft this year that they won’t address in free agency.
Let’s be fair – Andre Carter II embodies the type of player that the Pittsburgh Steelers love. He’s gritty, he’s physical, and plus he’s a part of the United States Army, something that has been strong in the Pittsburgh organization for years. Remember that Alejandro Villanueva served in the Army before playing as a stout left tackle for the Steelers for several years. Carter offers a good rotation for the Steelers to run and generate a lot of additional pass rush, and have a step in replacement for Highsmith when he becomes a free agent in 2024.
18. Detroit Lions – RB Bijan Robinson, Texas
Jamaal Williams is likely hitting free agency, and he’s beginning to hit that stage of being an aging running back in his career. His season this year was phenomenal, but imagine D’Andre Swift and Bijan Robinson sharing a load out of the same backfield. It’s a terrifying proposal.
Imagine the Detroit Lions being able to bring Amon-Ra St. Brown in motion, fake the reverse motion to him, then give the ball to Bijan Robinson on an inside zone. Man, if that doesn’t send chills down your spine, football isn’t for you.
I will be continuing mock draft 0.5 next week with 0.5.1 – that will be the next six picks as determined by the Playoff results this week. Also, my coverage will be coming to you live from Orlando, Florida, as I will be attending the SPIRAL Tropical Bowl. Enjoy!
