NFL Mock drafts are always a joy to complete – full sarcasm intended. It’s a lot of “what if’s” and taking guesses at what an NFL team is going to do – and a lot of the time, they don’t even know either! If you missed my Mock Draft 0.5, you can check it out here, where I broke down the first 18 picks before the start of the NFL playoffs.

It’s good to see how a draft appears to be looking right now – but let’s make one thing very clear. I’m working off of speculation at this point. Most NFL teams have no idea what they want to do yet. That’s why there’s a pre-draft process. Ideas, rumors, and all sorts of drama float around this time of year, and mock drafts fuel the fire.

So let’s fuel this fire, baby.

This is the first of three complete first-round NFL Mock Drafts that I will have this year. You can expect 2.0 to publish after the NFL Combine and 3.0 to drop a couple of days before the 2023 NFL Draft.

Vogel’s Pre-Combine NFL Mock Draft 1.0

Starting the first mock draft off with a BANG – a projected trade between the Indianapolis Colts and the Chicago Bears! The Colts trade up to the first overall selection with their next three years of first-round picks, their second round this year, and a fourth-round pick next year. The Colts’ next pick in the 2023 NFL Draft will now be with the 80th overall pick, one they acquired from Washington last year for Carson Wentz.

1. Indianapolis Colts (Projected from Chicago) – QB CJ Stroud, Ohio State

It’s no secret that the Indianapolis Colts are in the market for a quarterback. They understand that they have to jump up in this class ahead of everyone to get their guy. Arizona could trade down, and they get jumped. It’s not a comfortable situation to be in. I think everyone knows that they aren’t going to target the veteran again, not after the last couple of acquisitions went south. The Colts understand that they need their young guy to develop and build around.

Enter CJ Stroud.

The Colts have faith in CJ Stroud, who reportedly has awesome play recall, something that a quarterback had in Indianapolis before… Oh yes, Peyton Manning. I think the Colts are going to like Stroud a ton, and that propels him to the top of the draft via a trade to secure him. Look no further than what new head coach Shane Steichen has done with the development of Jalen Hurts – the same can be done for CJ Stroud.

2. Houston Texans – QB Bryce Young, Alabama

I don’t know if there is any truth to the rumor, but word on the street is that CJ Stroud told the Houston Texans he did not want to get drafted by them and would refuse to play for them. As I mentioned earlier, I don’t know if there is any credence to that report. I’m just repeating what I was told.

That being said, the Texans understand that they need a playmaker who can facilitate the ball to the additions that they make. Davis Mills is a solid low-tier starter who can probably win with a talented roster, much in the same mold as Jimmy Garoppolo. Bryce Young is a playmaker and a creator – at least, that’s what he showed us at Alabama.

Young proved this season that he could still win with far less superior talent and make plays, leading Alabama to an 11-2 record and a Sugar Bowl win over Kansas State. Alabama has typically been an offense that has great receivers to throw to, and this year the talent was young and underwhelming. It didn’t stop Young from making plays, and that’s exactly what the Texans need. Young makes a ton of sense here.

3. Arizona Cardinals – EDGE Will Anderson Jr, Alabama

The Arizona Cardinals are losing their veteran pass rusher, JJ Watt. Don’t be thinking that Anderson is the replacement for Watt because these two are completely different types of players. BUT – for a team that needs a star pass rusher after letting Chandler Jones go last year to the Raiders and now losing Watt, they need someone to work opposite of Cameron Thomas, who looked solid last year.

Will Anderson Jr is a prospect who’s primed to be the next elite pass rusher (Von Miller type) in the league for a decade. He looks the part of a fearsome pass rusher who can win in a variety of ways. If indeed Jonathan Gannon is hired as the head coach of the

4. Tennessee Titans (Projected from Houston through Indianapolis) – QB Will Levis, Kentucky

Chicago pulls off another stunner – this time going from the fourth overall pick to the eleventh spot with the Tennessee Titans on a draft night trade. The Titans send two first-round picks, a second-round pick next year, and a third-round pick this year to the Bears to move up to the fourth overall pick.

The Titans’ quarterback situation is pretty dire. Ryan Tannehill is not in a position to help this team very much anymore. Malik Willis looks very unprepared for the next level, and the Titans don’t seem to have a lot of confidence in him being their long-term answer. That being said, Tennessee got a pretty good scoop on Will Levis for a week in Nashville while the Kentucky team was preparing for the Music City Bowl.

Levis is one of those guys that has the potential to develop into a mid-tier starter – and a lot of young scouts love him because there isn’t a glaring weakness to his game. The problem to me is that Levis doesn’t have an elite trait, either. The Titans don’t need a star to facilitate their offense, though. They simply need a capable game manager, and Levis is perfect for that role.

5. Carolina Panthers (Projected from Seattle through Denver) – QB Anthony Richardson, Florida

The Carolina Panthers are getting aggressive with their new coaching staff, and they’re going after a high-upside quarterback to develop. Frank Reich has succeeded with several young quarterbacks, most notably Carson Wentz. He can get another high-profile draft pick with raw ability and unlimited upside.

Anthony Richardson certainly is far from a ready quarterback, but the Panthers have options at the quarterback position. PJ Walker hasn’t been bad in games with the Panthers and could be viewed as a bridge quarterback as they work through Richardson, who has two elite traits in his phenomenal arm talent and athletic ability.

6. Detroit Lions (from LA Rams) – DT Jalen Carter, Georgia

The Detroit Lions are cashing in on the Matthew Stafford trade with a fortunate bounce, as the run on quarterbacks has pushed one of the very best prospects in the class down to their sixth overall selection. Jalen Carter is a guy who is going to be a monster in the league for ten years and will have the same type of impact at his position as another former Detroit Lions defensive tackle – Ndamukong Suh.

Carter’s disrupting ability as both a run stopper and a pass rusher will make him a very valuable addition to the team immediately as soon as he starts.

7. Green Bay Packers (Projected from Las Vegas) – EDGE Myles Murphy, Clemson

The Green Bay Packers need pass rushers badly. Are they known for being aggressive in the draft? No. But things change as situations become direr. The Packers’ situation is getting direr, especially after missing the playoffs for the first time since Matt LaFleur was hired as head coach.

This draft day trade comes after the Raiders were outbid to move up for a quarterback and decided to drop back into the draft. Clemson’s Myles Murphy is an athletic freak. The Packers use it as an opportunity to take one of the top pass rushers in the class and upgrade their pass-rushing unit into an elite group. Myles Murphy, Rashan Gary, Preston Smith, and Kenny Clark certainly make it an interesting group.

8. Atlanta Falcons – EDGE KJ Henry, Clemson

Perhaps it’s a surprise to many to see KJ Henry this high in this mock draft, but let’s get something straight about Henry – he’s a monster, and his athletic profile after the Combine is going to be special. If you don’t believe me, watch.

Henry was a five-star prospect coming out of high school and didn’t really produce at Clemson until this year, where he started the entire season for the first time in his career. He’s shown massive improvement over the last two years and played very well in the Senior Bowl last week, too.

9. Seattle Seahawks (Projected from Carolina) – DT Bryan Bresee, Clemson

Seattle settles in with the trade compensation from Carolina and takes an anchor to set on the interior of their defensive line. Overall, it’s a good group that Seattle has, and they simply don’t have a stand-out talent. Bryan Bresee is a guy who can become a standout. His run-defense ability is stellar, and he has also found ways to impact the pocket as a pass rusher.

Seattle’s group is a couple of players away from becoming a stellar unit again, and Bresee brings them a step closer to being the dominant group we remember back during their Super Bowl runs.

10. Philadelphia Eagles (from New Orleans) – CB Joey Porter Jr, Penn State

It’s been a long time since the Eagles have invested a high pick in a defensive back. It’s also presumed that James Bradberry will not be back in 2023, which means that the Eagles need to try and fill that gap and keep their secondary as a strength of the defense. Why not add Joey Porter Jr, who is not just an in-state talent but also a versatile coverage cornerback who compliments what Darius Slay wants to do very well? It just makes sense.

Porter is a capable man and zone coverage cornerback who likes to play with tremendous physicality. That would be why he is a good fit on the other side of Darius Slay.

11. Chicago Bears (Projected from Tennessee) – EDGE Isaiah Foskey, Notre Dame

I’ve been on record saying that Chicago needs to get out of this draft with either Will Anderson Jr or Jalen Carter, and if they don’t, it will come back to hurt them. However, if Chicago wants to go for the long-term rebuild, stockpiling picks over the next couple of years is a great idea, and Isaiah Foskey is a nice consolation prize for paying the price.

Foskey is much like the player they traded last season to the Chargers, Khalil Mack. He’s a good pass rusher with solid athletic ability and looks the part of a top-ten talent in this draft class.

12. Houston Texans (from Cleveland) – WR Kayshon Boutte, LSU

Houston needs to add a lot of tools to give Bryce Young the weapons that he needs to be successful. Last year, the Texans surprised people by taking Derek Stingley Jr with the third overall pick. There’s a good chance they could surprise people and take Kayshon Boutte over any receiver in this class.

Why Boutte? His biggest problem at LSU was subpar quarterback play. His skill set is great, but his lack of productive film and stats is why people tend to overlook his abilities. His frustration boiled over early in the season as he was close to transferring, but he did a good job to rebound and finish the season strong. Pair Boutte with Young, and he’s a dangerous weapon.

13. New York Jets – OT Peter Skoronski, Northwestern

The New York Jets have found themselves in a peculiar place. Contenders for the playoffs at the midway point of the season, the wheels fell off the car, and the Jets missed the playoffs entirely. Now they seem to be blowing up what they have and looking for a quick fix to their quarterback position after what appears to be a bust in Zach Wilson.

The Jets’ offensive line is getting better but still needs investing, especially with the amount of time that Mekhi Becton has been unavailable. Peter Skoronski makes a lot of sense as a guy who’s going to play better at left guard but can swing out to the left tackle to fill in for injuries.

14. New England Patriots – WR Zay Flowers, Boston College

The New England Patriots are known for drafting players well before they are projected to be selected, and this year feels no different as Bill Belichick is still making decisions.

Zay Flowers is a first-round talent with a mid-round player’s body. There are questions about whether Flowers can get himself out of the slot and play from the boundary, as he measured in at just 5092 (5’9″) and 182 pounds at the Shrine Bowl. Oh, and the Patriots coached Zay Flowers at the Shrine Bowl. It just sounds like a match made in Heaven.

15. Las Vegas Raiders (Projected from Green Bay) – OT Jaelyn Duncan, Maryland

The Raiders are looking to rebuild now too, which is problematic to their short-term success. After getting outbid in the arms race for a quarterback, the Raiders fell back and regrouped, taking Jaelyn Duncan to settle their nerves. They need tackle help, and Duncan has flashed great signs of strong play despite his inconsistencies.

16. Washington Commanders – DB Kelee Ringo, Georgia

I thought this pick made a ton of sense for the Commanders. Still, Kelee Ringo is listed as a defensive back here because he played mostly cornerback at the University of Georgia but looks to me more as a safety. Washington’s defensive scheme uses a bunch of positionless roles to float around and play versatile football – Ringo fits that and can settle in at both cornerback and safety.

17. Pittsburgh Steelers – CB Devon Witherspoon, Illinois

The Pittsburgh Steelers love physical press cornerbacks, and Devon Witherspoon fits that description well. The cornerback position wasn’t a strong point for the Steelers last year, as they struggled through games between injuries and a rotating back end. This is the perfect time to add a player to the secondary who can start for the next several years, as Witherspoon looks the part to do.

18. Detroit Lions – CB Mekhi Blackmon, USC

Detroit has three free-agent cornerbacks this year and could use speed to play on the opposite side of Jeff Okudah to help strengthen their back end. Mekhi Blackmon makes a lot of sense to fit this role. A transfer from Colorado this year, Blackmon went to USC and played well last year, putting together a good season.

19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – EDGE BJ Ojulari, LSU

There are many ways that Tampa Bay can go here with their first-round pick. The quarterback position is in dire need, which isn’t good for the Buccaneers, who weren’t blindsided by Tom Brady’s retirement but were woefully unprepared for it. I think that they understand that they will have to address the position in free agency and maybe select a quarterback to develop behind Kyle Trask later.

Either way, BJ Ojulari is an interesting option, as Anthony Nelson, and Karl Nassib are free agents. Ojulari had a stellar season at LSU as he finally stayed healthy for a year and produced.

20. Dallas Cowboys (Projected from Seattle) – WR Quinton Johnson, TCU

An astonishing draft day trade moves the Dallas Cowboys ahead to nab an in-state talent at wide receiver Quinton Johnson from TCU. Jerry Jones has realized that his decision to move Amari Cooper hurt this offense, even though it freed up a lot of cap space. Noah Brown and TY Hilton are free agents this season, so adding Johnson to the duo of CeeDee Lamb and Michael Gallup makes this attack potentially very explosive.

21. Miami Dolphins (Forfeited)

22. Los Angeles Chargers – WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Ohio State

The Chargers need a third receiver option to pair with Keenan Allen and Mike Williams next year and prepare to replace Allen in the future. Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s best season in college was as the third receiver to Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave, who both had phenomenal rookie seasons in the NFL. It makes sense for the Chargers to try and give their offense another weapon for Justin Herbert to work with – it was their offense that would stall out at times this year, and a lot of it was due to injuries across the board.

Adding a talent like JSN makes a ton of sense and would be a good move for the Chargers to pull off.

23. Baltimore Ravens – RB Bijan Robinson, Texas

Would the Ravens really spend their first-round pick on a running back in 2023? They just might. The Todd Monken hire tells a lot about the direction of this offense – Lamar Jackson is not coming back. The two sides are too far apart on money, and it’s not something I think they will resolve. They’re going to need a strong running game to build around the new offense, something that Monken is familiar with from the University of Georgia.

Bijan Robinson answers the Ravens running back concerns pretty much instantly. He’s another level of running back between his athletic ability and natural ball-carrying skills. Robinson is a solid running back, and five years from now, the Ravens probably get a great deal on his fifth-year option, as the average running back salary is expected to plummet.

24. Minnesota Vikings – EDGE Derick Hall, Auburn

Between Danielle Hunter and Za’Darius Smith, the Vikings had a strong pass-rushing unit last year that created 44 sacks and 236 quarterback hurries (per PFF). That being said, what Minnesota lacked was depth to keep the pass rush fresh.

A player like Derick Hall makes a lot of sense for the Vikings, who can immediately provide valuable depth off the bench and develop into a fine starter in the NFL. Hall is a good run defender as well and was arguably the top defender at Auburn over the last few years.

25. Jacksonville Jaguars – CB Garrett Williams, Syracuse

The Jaguars could use help in their secondary, as everyone can, and Garrett Williams is a good fit for what they want to do. Williams is a solid zone coverage cornerback who can make solid decisions and play well as a ball hawk in his college career. Williams replaces Tre Herndon quickly and settles into a future starting role on the boundary.

26. New York Giants – WR Jordan Addison, USC

As of right now, there are questions at the quarterback position with the Giants, mostly riding on whether the team comes to terms with Daniel Jones and decides to keep him around. Regardless, they’re going to need help at the wide receiver position, as Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton are both free agents next season.

Jordan Addison certainly helps fill that void. The reliable mid-range receiver who transferred from Pittsburgh to USC last year has solid pro player written all over him, so it’s not a surprise that the Giants could go this direction to help build some of that depth back at the receiver position, getting a reliable and anything but flashy receiver to come in and just produce.

27. Seattle Seahawks (Projected from Dallas) – OG O’Cyrus Torrence, Florida

Seattle moves back with Dallas on a draft day trade as Dallas jumps a few teams to add an electric receiver to their group to play opposite of CeeDee Lamb. After bolstering their defensive line earlier, Seattle comes back with the top guard in this class, O’Cyrus Torrence, to anchor the right side of their offensive line and strengthen their run game.

28. Buffalo Bills – S Arquan Bush, Cincinnati

The Buffalo Bills definitely wanted O’Cyrus Torrence to bolster their interior offensive line but got beat to the punch by a pick! Instead, they will work on their back end and secondary, taking Arquan Bush with their first-round pick and building up the secondary. Jordan Poyer is a free agent and might want too much money to stay.

Bush is a solid free safety type with range, instincts, and a bigger body to deliver powerful, punishing hits.

29. Cincinnati Bengals – TE Luke Musgrave, Oregon State

Luke Musgrave might be the best tight end in the class of 2023 with his blend of strength and athletic ability. Musgrave stretches the field to all levels and can block effectively as well. So, let’s take a minute and look at what Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals offense could potentially look like:

• RB Joe Mixon
• WR Ja’Marr Chase
• WR Tee Higgins
• WR Tyler Boyd
• TE Luke Musgrave

How do you stop that group? Getting a guy like Musgrave could take the offense to another level of special, giving Burrow a security blanket like no one he has ever had before.

30. New Orleans Saints (from San Francisco) – QB Hendon Hooker, Tennessee

And another shocker – despite the injury, Hendon Hooker goes in the first round! The New Orleans Saints need an answer at quarterback, and it makes sense that they go with a quarterback here, especially if things don’t fall favorably with Derek Carr (or whomever the veteran is that they sign). Hooker is certainly a good insurance policy if things don’t go well.

Surprisingly, Hooker is my second-highest-graded quarterback in the class and is a true dual-threat NFL quarterback. Yes, he’s coming off of the ACL tear, but he should be ready to go mid-season when most quarterback changes occur.

31. Philadelphia Eagles – EDGE Will McDonald, Iowa State

With their second pick of the 2023 NFL Draft, the Eagles touch their defensive line depth, adding Will McDonald from Iowa State to the fray. McDonald is a tough fighter, able to bring speed to power effectively. His role would be good in a rotation early, and McDonald has the skillset to develop into a starter over the next couple of years.

32. Kansas City Chiefs – OT Cody Mauch, North Dakota State

The Chiefs have two free-agent tackle spots, so Cody Mauch makes some sense here. He looks much better suited to play guard, but most teams are willing to try a player like Mauch at tackle before they move him inside to guard. He had a very strong Senior Bowl performance and is expected to test very well at the 2023 NFL Combine.