Welcome to Draft Enchantments, where I pose deep, philosophical questions ahead of the Draft and write through opinions that may or may not be triggering to some fans.
To start off the series – are the Houston Texans actually taking a quarterback with the second overall pick?
This was a question posed to me by a good analyst in this business, Mr. Michael Vogel (no relation… that I know of – who knows what my single uncle did in his younger days). Well, the honesty of the situation is that all hell breaks lose if they don’t. If the Texans pass on a quarterback, chances are other teams will too as the top-tier defenders start coming off the board faster than anyone wanted them to.
If you read my Mock Draft 2.0, I spoke about the potential of Will Levis going second overall, and the fit that presented to the Houston system, especially with Levis’ Liam Coen connection. However, Levis has certainly raised fair concerns over his handling of the pre-draft process, which is becoming a more heavily scrutinized procedure every year. Levis has reportedly not done well this offseason, something I said myself that I could believe.
Let’s start with the situation in Houston. Why would they need a quarterback?
We have always just assumed that the Houston Texans are taking a quarterback, no questions asked.
The Houston Texans rolled out Davis Mills as the quarterback last year, a third round pick from the 2021 NFL Draft that the Texans added as depth who ended up starting the back end of his rookie season. Mills had an interesting season. There were certainly good moments throughout it, but overall it was a depleted roster and inconsistent performances from Mills, who was actually benched for Kyle Allen and Jeff Driskel at the end of the season, that contributed to the fall of the season, ending 3-13-1.
This offseason, the Texans signed quarterback Case Keenum as a free agent from Buffalo, where he has backed up Josh Allen the last year. He’s been a journeyman quarterback at this point of his career. After leading Minnesota into a playoff run and being replaced by Kirk Cousins, Keenum started for a season in Denver and was replaced by Drew Lock. He ended up starting half a season in Washington in 2019, and has settled into a backup role over the last three years with the Browns and Bills.
The Texans also currently hold EJ Perry on the roster, an intriguing small school prospect from Bryant who was an undrafted free agent last year.
Do they really have to take a quarterback early?
The assumption is that the Texans can’t roll out Mills for another season, especially since it seems that there was no consistency last year with him.
Do they really have to take another quarterback?
Davis Mills, first of all, has been put through hell in a hand basket, especially with the way the Texans have handled this coaching situation since he has been there. First, it was David Culley. Then, it was Lovie Smith. This is Mills’ third season in the NFL and he’s getting his third NFL head coach. The schemes that Culley and Smith ran were different in a lot of ways. How is he supposed to develop with complete staff turnover constantly in Houston?
Secondly, it appears that the Texans have landed their head coach for the future in DeMeco Ryans. His six-year contract certainly guarantees him at least three years as the head coach of the Texans. What does that mean?
Coach Ryans has time to put together a roster worthy of playoff contention.
What will the Texans offense look like in 2023?
The Houston Texans offensive coordinator will be Bobby Slowik in 2023, which means that there will be heavy Kyle Shanahan-styled schemes in Houston next season.
Slowik started coaching after playing wide receiver at Michigan Tech and UConn in 2012 with the Washington Redskins staff under Mike Shanahan as a defensive assistant. After Shanahan was fired, Slowik worked as an analyst for PFF, from 2014 to 2016, before being added to Shanahan’s staff as a defensive quality control coach in 2017. Shanahan moved him to the offensive side of the ball in 2019, and he was the passing-game coordinator in San Francisco last season.
The Texans quarterback coach is Jerrod Johnson, who started for three seasons at Texas A&M at 6’5″ and 250 lbs before getting beat out by Ryan Tannehill in his senior season. Johnson was an undrafted free agent in 2011 who floated around until 2016. He got a job through the Bill Walsh Diversity coaching fellowship with the 49ers in 2017, spent three years with the Indianapolis Colts as an offensive quality-control assistant, and then served as the assistant quarterbacks coach in Minnesota last season.
What that tells me about the offense is that is should be heavily influenced by Kyle Shanahan and his schemes. This should be the most quarterback friendly system that Davis Mills has ever played in.
How does this play into the Houston Texans’ draft plans?
It certainly appears that the Carolina Panthers are sold on Ohio State quarterback CJ Stroud with the first overall pick. He fits everything that they want and I think that can pretty much be written in with a sharpie.
That means that with the second overall pick, the Texans (if they were to take a quarterback) would have to pick between Will Levis, Bryce Young, and Anthony Richardson. All of those guys (as much as I love Bryce Young) have question marks – are Levis and Richardson ready to play right now? Does Young have the frame to hold up in the NFL?
What it all comes down to is how the new staff feels about Davis Mills. If they think he can flourish in a quarterback friendly system, which he might be able to, then they may like their quarterback room and just add someone to push the third quarterback spot. Case Keenum, at 35 years old, is both a capable backup and an additional coach at this point of his career.
You could try Mills one more year and push off the need for a quarterback until next year’s class – which will feature players like Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, Bo Nix, and Spencer Rattler.
So, with all of this in mind, what do you think?
Tell me on Twitter; @DraftVogel.
