Chicago Bears Column

By: Dave Crippin

5/15/10

Draft ‘10

R3-75) S Major Wright (5114, 206, 4.48, Florida)
Wright comes with fine measurables and solid experience (33 starts). He played a centerfield FS role in college, but was known more for his hitting than ballhawking. Has a chance to solve the perpetual FS problem, but also has a good chance of being just another tweener.

R4-109) DE Corey Wootton (6060, 270, 4.94, Northwestern)
Looked like a high pick in 2008, until a serious knee injury late in the season. Didn’t return to form in 09 and was hurt in 05 too, so health is a major concern. Interestingly, while his 40 was terrible, his shuttle and cone were very good (opposite of what you’d expect from a bad knee). Would be a steal if he recovers, but has a lot of potential to be the next Dan Bazuin.

R5-141) CB Joshua Moore (5107, 188, 4.55, Kansas State)
A second junior DB. Embarrassing output of 2 bench reps and an unimpressive 40, but nice cone and shuttle. Known as aggressive, in spite of his size/strength limitations.

R6-181) QB Dan LeFevour (6032, 230, 4.66, Central Michigan)
Great athlete and extremely productive on the college level. Spread offense, lesser competition, iffy arm, and subpar mechanics all make him less appealing than what the numbers say, though.

R7-218) OT J’marcus Webb (6073*, 328*, 5.28*, West Texas A&M)
Small-schooler with little buzz and info. Has respectable measurables and played well in the Texas vs The Nation postseason game.

All in all, I’m just not very excited. Obviously, without R1 or R2 selections, there wasn’t much room for impact players. Wright will have a shot at the starting FS job, but aside from that, these guys should see very little action in 2010, and then may or may not fit into future plans if there’s a big shake-up after the season.
Depending on his knee, Wootton might be inactive all year, or might get a little backup LDE time.
Moore is liable to get the last DB slot, also be inactive all year, and send newly signed CB Tim Jennings packing. They’d probably like to redshirt him if they could (and maybe Wootton, too), though.
LeFevour and Webb figure to spend the year on the practice squad.

The ongoing insistence on short-changing the OL is just jaw-dropping.

Roster
( ) contain contract years left. +1 shows RFA and +2 ERFA status after their current contract expires. RFA* means they would normally be unrestricted, but assuming the new CBA is not in place, they will be restricted instead. PUP is the Physically Unable to Perform list, IR for Injured Reserve, and INJ is used for a player hampered by injury, but not on the preceding lists. Bold denotes star players, Underline shows an average to good starter, Normal for substandard starters to decent backups, and Italics for poor/raw/ST only players.

OL
CWilliams(3), Shaffer(2), Kreutz(1-INJ), Garza(2), Omiyale(3)
Marten(1+1?), Louis(3), Beekman(1), Webb(R7)
Asiata(PS)

QB
Cutler(4), Hanie(1+1), Basanez(1+2?), LeFevour(R6)

WR
Aromashodu(1), Bennett(2)
Hester(4), Knox(3)
RDavis(1), Iglesias(3)
Peterman(PS)

TE
Manumaleuna(5), Olsen(2), Clark(1), KDavis(2)
Brock(PS)

HB
Forte(2-INJ), Taylor(4), Wolfe(1-IR), Bell(1+2)

FB/h-B
Williams(1)
Ta’ufo’ou(PS)

DL
Idonije(2-IR), Harris(3-INJ), AAdams(1), Peppers(6)
Wooten(R4-INJ), Gilbert(3), Harrison(2), Anderson(1)
Melton(3-IR), Toeaina(1+1?)

LB
Roach(1), Urlacher(3-IR), Briggs(4)
Tinoisamoa(1-IR), Hillenmeyer(2), Shaw(1+1?)
Malast(PS)

S
Harris(?), Manning(RFA*)
Afalava(3), Wright(R3)
Steltz(2), Bullocks(1)

CB
Tillman(4-INJ), Bowman(2), Graham(1), DJMoore(3), JMoore(R5), Jennings(2), Turene(2+1?)

LS
Mannelly(1)
K (1)
Gould(4)
P (2)
Maynard(1-INJ), McGee(1+2)

KR
Knox, Manning
PR
Hester

Misc

Brown did get axed, for minor cost savings, to offset the price of Peppers. Supposedly, Idonije is first in line at the 2nd starting job.

Contrary to previous suggestions that Omiyale was locked in as starting LG, the Bears are now suggesting he’s locked in as starting RT, with the LG job up for grabs.

The Bears attempted to bolster the secondary by trading to bring SS Chris Harris back. To get him, they gave up LB Jamar Williams, who showed some real flashes, but never got a chance to play behind Urlacher and Briggs. A couple years back, I really wanted Briggs traded (or allowed to go elsewhere, for the comp pick) and Williams given his job, so I’ll be very interested to see how he does in Carolina.

The Bears traded SS Kevin Payne away for a late pick, after their S position became overcrowded, with Harris’ return. Ironically, Harris was originally traded away for a late pick the last time the team got overloaded with SSs.

2011 Shopping List

Rank.....Position.....Rounds it could be successfully addressed in.....Comment

1) ………..G...….…2-5……………The run-blocking is atrocious. They could have only 2 OLmen who deserve to be in a starting lineup in 2010, and will be lucky to have 4.
2)…………C?..……2-5……………. Kreutz is done in January unless this is a winning season and the coaching staff survives. Beekman a FA, too.
3)………..FS?....…..1-6..……..……Manning and Bullocks are FAs and Wright an iffy fit for the weak side.
4)………..LB....…...3-7…………...2 UFAs and subpar depth after the Williams trade.
5)………..FB?…….4-7……………A traditional offense would need more help here.

3/27/10

Roster

( ) contain contract years left. +1 shows RFA and +2 ERFA status after their current contract expires. RFA* means they would normally be unrestricted, but assuming the new CBA is not in place, they will be restricted instead. PUP is the Physically Unable to Perform list, IR for Injured Reserve, and INJ is used for a player hampered by injury, but not on the preceding lists. Bold denotes star players, Underline shows a solid starter, Normal for substandard starters to decent backups, and Italics for poor/raw/ST only players.

CWilliams(3), Omiyale(3), Kreutz(1), Garza(2), Shaffer(2)

Marten(1?), Louis(3), Beekman(1)

Asiata(PS)

Cutler(4), Hanie(2+1), Basanez(1+2?)

Aromashodu(1), Bennett(2)

Hester(4), Knox(3)

RDavis(1), Iglesias(3)

Peterman(PS)

Manumaleuna(5), Olsen(2), Clark(2), KDavis(2)

Brock(PS)

Forte(2-INJ), Taylor(4), Bell(ERFA?), Wolfe(1-IR), Peterson(FA)

FB/h-B

Williams(1)

Ta’ufo’ou(PS)

Peppers(6), Harris(3-INJ), AAdams(1), Brown(2)

Melton(3-IR), Idonije(2-IR), Harrison(2), Anderson(RFA*)

Gilbert(3), Toeaina(1)

Roach(RFA), Urlacher(2-IR), Briggs(4)

Tinoisamoa(FA-IR), Hillenmeyer(1), JWilliams(RFA*)

Shaw(RFA), McClover(FA)

Malast(PS)

Afalava(3), Manning(RFA*)

Payne(1), Bullocks(1)

Steltz(2)

Tillman(4-INJ), Bowman(2), Graham(1), Jennings(2), Moore(3), Turene(1+2?)

Mannelly(1)

K (1)

Gould(4)

P (2)

Maynard(1-INJ), McGee(1)

Knox, Manning

Hester

Misc

The Bears exploded out of the gate in free agency, signing DE Julius Peppers, TE Brandon Manumaleuna, and HB Chester Taylor immediately. It does have some excitement, but not as much as it seems at first glance. All the contracts were overly long/large (similar to Fred Miller and Muhsin Muhammed). Taylor hopefully won’t end up a full-time starter. Manu is a fine starter for an offense that needs a blocker, but Manu in Martz’s offense is not really an upgrade over 2009’s TEs in 2009’s offense.

Kevin Jones is out of the picture, after 2 useless, injury-plagued seasons. Adrian Peterson doesn’t sound likely to receive a new offer, either.

Jason McKie was also released, not fitting into Martz’s plans, apparently.

Rumor is that, after Martz and Manumaleuna, the Bears tried to shop Olsen and got nothing but paltry offers.

CB Tim Jennings was added. He has 4 yrs and 21 starts of experience, but is only 5’8 and didn’t receive a tender offer from his original team. This led to Vasher finally getting the axe.

Shockingly, the Bears appear poised to dump Alex Brown. He may be overpaid, but there is little behind him, it’s a win now season, and the cap doesn’t matter in 2010.

2010 Shopping List

Rank.....Position.....Rounds it could be successfully addressed in.....Comment

1) ………..G...….…3-5……………The run-blocking is atrocious. They could easily have only 2 OLmen who deserve to be in a starting lineup in 2010, and certainly no more than 4. Kreutz is done in a year unless this is a winning season and the coaching staff survives.

2)………..FS?....…..3-7..……..……Manning has shown a little improvement. He and Bullocks both are RFAs, though. And there are suggestions Manning could get moved (again!) back to SS.

3)………..WR……..n/a……………Need a good character veteran starter, and a R3 pick isn’t going to help. Neither is the FA list, unfortunately.

4)………..OT?..…..3-5…………….If former R2 Marten is coming along, depth is ok and they don’t like to keep many OL on the roster. If not, there’s a huge hole.

5)……..TE,FB,h-B...5-7……………Hard to know what they intend to do in Martz’s new system.

6)………..LB?..…....6-7…………....Over half the unit will be free agents, but it sounds as if all may be back (with the probable exception of McClover).

7) ……….QB?..…...5-7……………Basanez can’t go on the PS again and hasn’t shown enough for the roster.

No comp picks for the Bears this year.

Even though we have 10 defensive linemen, 7 of whom are from R4 or higher, there is scary talk floating around that DT is one of the team’s top targets in the draft.

The funny thing is: this team is desperate for difference-makers, while having excellent depth – yet they have no early picks, and plenty of late picks with no roster spots available for them.

Players to Watch

As always, this is NOT a ranking of the top players at the position. It is players on my radar as good fits for our needs, schemes, draft slots, and picks we are liable to use on the position.

John Jerry, 6053 328 5.15, Ole Miss

A beastly run-blocker. Stunningly light and fast at Combine.

Vladimir Ducasse, 6043 332 5.21, Umass

Played G and RT

Zane Beadles, 6043 310 ---, Utah

Doubtful to play T at the next level.

Sergio Render, 6’3 320 5.40*, Va Tech

His strength – drive blocking – is what we lack most.

Mitch Petrus, 6031 310 5.29, Arkansas

Academically ineligible as a junior.

Ciron Black, 6044 327 5.49, LSU

Currently plays LT, but may be better suited inside.

Chris Scott, 6045 319 5.49, Tenn

Has played all over.

Looking for a pile-mover.

Major Wright, 5114 206 4.48, Florida (Jr)

Fine speed, but more a hitter than a centerfielder

Darrell Stuckey, 5114 205 4.48, Kansas

Another tweener

Kurt Coleman, 5104 192 4.52*, Ohio St

Plays SS, but will probably move to FS or corner

Looks like an awful year for FS, once you get to R3. Most of the best S prospects are SSs or tweeners who will probably move to SS. Good free safeties get harder to find every year…which is why you can usually only solve it by making it a high priority…which we haven’t.

CBs who might be convertible to FS

Akwasi Owusu-Ansah, 6002 207 4.43, IUP

Could be another Daniel Manning, but could be what Manning was supposed to be

Myron Lewis, 6015 203 4.48, Vanderbilt

Many expect him to have to move

Crezdon Butler, 5116 191 4.49, Clemson

3/4/10

Koaching Komedy

Ok. I guess I have to wade through this sad story, at least a little.

After weeks of teasing where were heard the Bears were making inquiries around the league, we got a press conference with the predictable news.

One of the funny/sad things about this press conference was that they repeatedly emphasized that they recognized how bad things were and that there was such a need for major change…and then informed us that the GM and HC would be back, and that the new DC would still have to run the defense exactly the same way as Lovie did last year when he was his own DC.

Ok, then. So what you’re selling is that everything was OC Ron Turner’s fault…even though Turner has been a pro OC before, with good results (possibly the best in Bear history, for the record). Well, not everything – for good measure, they also threw in QB coach Pep Hamilton, OL coach Harry Hiestand, and TE coach Rob Boras.

This is pretty much standard operating procedure around here. Whenever things go wrong, find some underlings to take the fall. Going into Season 7 of Lovie, he’s on his 3^rd OC and 4^th DC. The turnover at the assistant coach positions has been similar. Now, by itself, that doesn’t sound like vastly more than the league norm. However, you have to factor in that a good portion of league turnover comes from successful coaches leaving voluntarily to take promotions. In the Bears’ case, however, that doesn’t occur – in fact, I don’t think there’s been a single promotion from our staff in 6 years. It’s all coming from hapless minions being thrown under the bus to deflect blame from the higher-ups.

Which segues nicely into Act II. When McCaskey proxy Ted Phillips announced that Lovie was getting one last chance, he also reassured fans, oh yes, the Bears would still be a very attractive destination. What coach wouldn’t want to come be a coordinator for a team that’s been making a habit of throwing coaches under the bus and is fairly likely to be purging the entire coaching staff in a year, regardless? Well, shockingly, the answer is "almost no one". After a number of embarrassing rejections, highlighted by a guy choosing to take a job with the Raiders and declining to even interview here, the Bears went scrambling madly for their fallbacks - Mike Martz, who sat out the 2009 campaign and had no other offers going in 2010, and current DL coach Rod Marinelli, who didn’t have to give up a better offer than the Bears…because he was already stuck on the Bears.

What’s troublesome is not that Martz and Marinelli are such bad hires – they aren’t, really – it’s how people who make their living in the NFL perceived the 2010 Bears and how much they wanted to be a part of it.

After stumbling through the coaching issues, the Bears turned to other staffing and fired director of pro personnel Bobby DePaul, who had been with the team 9 years. It’s hard for a fan to know how good or bad a guy like this is, since we’re not privy to who lobbies for a player to be signed – the pro player man, the GM, the coach, the coordinator? But I do know it’s a major shake-up in the personnel dept, engineered by a regime that is likely to be out the door in 10 months. I’m mistrustful of that and, really, I’m mistrustful of any staffing decisions this bunch makes, ever since the infamous "trust me" from Lovie, upon the dismissal of DC Ron Rivera and installation of personal friend, Bob Babich.

Misc

Kreutz had surgery for bone spurs near the Achilles and expects to be back sometime in the summer.

Hester is actually campaigning to play less receiver and do more returning. For a guy that absorbs a lot of intelligence jokes, he may have more sense then anyone in the Bear Braintrust.

Pace got canned, as expected.

Our restricted free agents all got some level of (1 yr) tender offer.

Lots of rumors about chasing various free agents. Nothing that should be counted on.

Next Month

Updates for the giant Combine shake-up in valuations

1/26/10

Short Summaries

5-8) GB 21, Bears 14

5-9) Baltimore 31, Bears 7

Been quite a while since I’ve seen a Bear team roll over and quit like that.

6-9) Bears 36, Minnesota 30 (OT)

Bears capitalize on a Minn squad in a tailspin.

7-9) Bears 37, Detroit 23

Season Summary

The Bears were aging and fading in the offseason. They made some big moves to try to get back into contention immediately. Pace, Omiyale, Tinoisamoa, Shaffer, and Bullocks combined wound up giving them about 35 (2 men’s worth of) starts – and the number of quality starts…well, the less said the better.

Even Cutler produced a season rating that barely edged Grossman and Hutchinson’s best efforts.

After a promising 3-1 start that I immediately branded deceptive, the bottom fell out and they hit a 2-8 skid, where they could only best pathetic Browns and Lions squads. At the end, they rallied to win 2 meaningless games and make their record look far better than it deserves.

Personnel File

DE Joe Clermond was cut from the PS and rookie LB Kevin Malast was brought back on.

LB Cato June was cut after Briggs got healthy, with PS T James Marten getting his roster spot.

P Richmond McGee was temporarily signed as insurance against Maynard’s "groin" (hip?) problems, with Ogunleye officially going to IR to make room.

Idonije and Tillman went to IR so that Basanez and Turene could be signed to the roster over the winter. In other words, they figure to compete for spots next year, and the Bears don’t want them being available for other offers. As usual, Angelo is diligent, if not shrewd, when it comes to the little things.

Maynard and Forte had surgeries as soon as the season ended. Maynard’s was for his hip, which could be a problem in terms of getting back in time for 2010.

Forte’s was a "clean-up" procedure on his knee. Frankly, given the way the team handles injury information, I find it much easier to believe that he’s getting surgery for a tear from early in the season that the team branded a ‘knee sprain’ and had him play on all year.

RIP

New DE Gaines Adams died of cardiac arrest from an enlarged heart at 26. He left behind a girlfriend and 2 children.

There’s a number of potential causes for an enlarged heart in a young person – genetic condition (hypertrophic cardiomyopathy), a natural result (to a degree) of extensive cardio exercise, and substance abuse (steroids and cocaine being the typical culprits). Cause is not known at this time.

The last active Bear to die was DT Fred Washington back in 1990.

Contrary to what you may read in online forums, there is no compensatory draft pick awarded in the case of player deaths, and the Bears have issued a statement to that effect.

Roster

( ) contain contract years left at the end of the season. +1 shows RFA and +2 ERFA status after their current contract expires. RFA* means they would normally be unrestricted, but assuming the new CBA is not in place, they will be restricted instead. PUP is the Physically Unable to Perform list, IR for Injured Reserve, and INJ is used for a player hampered by injury, but not on the preceding lists. Bold denotes star players, Underline shows a solid starter, Normal for substandard starters to decent backups, and Italics for poor/raw/ST only players.

Letter grades are my preseaon predictions, followed by what we actually got.

CWilliams(3), Omiyale(3), Kreutz(1), Garza(2), Shaffer(2)

Pace(2), Beekman(1), Louis(3), Marten(?)

Raiola(PS), Asiata(PS)

3 new starters, 2 new to the Bears, and 2 playing new positions means this unit is going to need time to gel. Kreutz and Pace are both battling against age to hold on a while longer.

B-

Patience didn’t help any. Pace and Omiyale were big flops.

Cutler(4), Hanie(2+1), Basanez(1+2?)

Cutler is a QB to fear – for other teams, for a change. Hanie is untested. Basanez will run the scout team and serve as an insurance policy.

Bad Oline and route-running gets Cutler some slack, but he made some hideous red zone decisions, too.

Hester(4), Bennett(2)

Aromashodu(1), Knox(3)

RDavis(1), Iglesias(3)

Peterman(PS)

Deep, but feeble at the top and very inexperienced. Good mix of speed and hands guys, but no size, as always.

D+

Nice numbers, but that’s because the run game was hopeless, not because the passing game was great.

C-

Olsen(1), Clark(2), KDavis(2)

Brock(PS)

Olsen still needs lots of blocking work, but is a big receiving threat. Clark still looks at the top of his game. Gaines and Olsen will double as emergency fullbacks, probably leading to a lot of inactivity for Davis.

Clark getting phased out, but Olsen still one-dimensional.

B-

Forte(2), Bell(?), Wolfe(1-IR), Peterson(FA), Jones (1-IR)

Forte was overworked in 08 and is hampered by a hamstring now, but there’s no one behind him to lighten the load. Jones should be finished after another injury. Could well be a B+ if Forte stays healthy, but the low grade comes from concern that he won’t and what’s in store if that happens.

Nailed this. Forte had a preseason hamstring injury and early season ‘knee sprain’ and was ineffective. Bell was fair in spotty relief.

McKie(2)

Ta’ufo’ou(PS)

McKie is an ok versatile FB.

C-

Ogunleye(FA-IR), Harris(3-INJ), AAdams(1), Brown(2)

Melton(3-IR), Idonije(2-IR), Harrison(2), Anderson(RFA*)

Gilbert(3), Toeaina(1)

A lot of guys here have something to prove. After all the high draft picks spent on DTs (Harris, Tank Johnson, Harrison, Dusty Dvoracek, Gilbert), I think the two best ones may be the two undrafteds with the silly names – Idonije and Toeaina.

A whole lot of ‘whatever’. We have half a dozen guys who can be effective starters on a line with a star or two…except our line lacks a star or two.

D+

Roach(RFA), Urlacher(2-IR), Briggs(4)

Tinoisamoa(FA-IR), Hillenmeyer(1), JWilliams(RFA*)

Shaw(RFA), McClover(FA)

Malast(PS)

The Bears are good and very deep here, although it’s unfortunately at the least impactful position group in a 4-3 defense.

B+

A couple ugly games with Roach at MLB, but mostly the depth came in very handy.

C+

Afalava(3), Manning(RFA*)

Payne(1), Bullocks(RFA*)

Steltz(2)

Deleston(IR)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tpl4Cr3-Tm0&feature=related

The best player in the whole group is the rookie 6^th rounder. Manning might just play NB, but might be forced into playing FS, too.

A bit better at avoiding big breakdowns, but 1 combined INT from your two starting safeties is telling you something.

D+

Tillman(4-INJ), Bowman(2), Vasher(3), Graham(1), Moore(3), Turene(1+2?)

Tillman is likely to miss a few games, which is pretty scary, but assuming he comes back strong, this could be a pleasant surprise afterwards. Vasher looked much better in his last 2 preseason games, Graham has always been solid, and Bowman has shown great flashes and has huge physical potential. Graham might switch to FS and someone (McBride, Steltz, Bullocks?) might get cut after his return.

B-

Tillman’s injury count is unnerving, but when he’s fine, the unit is fine.

B-

Mannelly(1)

K (1)

Gould(4)

P (2)

Maynard(1), McGee(1)

Knox, Manning

Hester

Dave Toub hasn’t ever fielded a special teams unit that wasn’t good, although last year’s version certainly was a dropoff from what we’re used to. All the skill players are back.

B+

B+

Koaching Komedy

The hypocrisy, disingenuousness, and ineptitude surrounding the coaching changes, non-changes, and non-hirings is too rich a subject for me to get to right now. I’ll save it for next month, when we may know who the lucky ‘winners’ are.

Buh-bye

With Lovie and his signature scheme returning, not as many Bears will get the boot as they should. But here’s some familiar faces that could be out the door.

Peterson – Bell spelling Forte instead of AP says it all.

Pace – Way too diminished for what he makes. Might be offered a cut to remain as a backup, but not likely to stay.

Vasher – Down to 3^rd/4^th on the depth chart and badly overpriced.

Jones – 2yrs, 1 IR, 0 return on investment.

Tinoisamoa – 2 not pretty knee injuries. FA.

Ogunleye – Underachieving FA, but Adams’s death makes him a lot less expendable.

Wolfe – New OC may or may not be interested in a limited niche player like this.

Manning – Could get a larger offer from a team starved for returners.

Anderson – Underachieving RFA.

Harris – The old Tommie Harris is never coming back, but UT is the key to Lovie’s D, so expect one more season of desperate hoping, followed by the usual limited practicing and limited game performance.

Kreutz – Old and fading. Lovie back should mean he will be, too.

Urlacher – Injury problems, but, again, Lovie will hope he holds up.

2010 Shopping List

Rank.....Position.....Rounds it could be successfully addressed in.....Comment

1) ………..G...….…3-4……………The run-blocking is atrocious. They could easily have only 2 OLmen who deserve to be in a starting lineup in 2010, and certainly no more than 4. Pace is done and Kreutz will be lucky to finish the last year of his contract here

2)………..WR……..n/a……………Need a good character veteran starter, and a R3 pick isn’t going to help. Neither is the FA list, unfortunately.

3)………..DE………n/a……………With Adams dead and Melton nowhere near ready, Ogunleye may be their only option, unless another FA can be found.

4)…….….HB?…….3-4……………Forte needs help, although a veteran FA could suffice

5)………..FS?....…..3-7..……..……Manning has shown a little improvement. He and Bullocks both are FAs, though.

6)………..LB...…....4-7…………....Over half the unit will be free agents.

7) ……….QB?..…...4-7……………Basanez can’t go on the PS again and hasn’t shown enough for the roster.

8)………..FB?……..4-7……………Could be improved and wouldn’t cost much to do it.

With no pick until about 75, it’s going to be an uneventful draft for the Bears in 2010.

Online compensatory pick wizard AdamJT has forecast no compensatory picks to supplement our meager supply, either. http://adamjt13.blogspot.com/

Players to Watch

Montario Hardesty, 6’0 215 4.5, Tennessee

Ryan Matthews, 5’11 220 4.45, Fresno State

Andre Anderson, 6’0 215 4.5, Tulane

Succeeded Forte.

Almost any type will do, so long as they aren’t undersized/light or with serious durability issues.

Ciron Black, 6’5 330 5.4, LSU

Currently plays LT, but may be better suited inside.

Jon Asamoah, 6’4 315 5.3, Illinois

Zane Beadles, 6’4 305 5.3, Utah

Doubtful to play T at the next level.

Vladimir Ducasse, 6’4 330 5.4, Umass

Played G and RT

Chris Scott, 6’5 345 5.2, Tenn

Has played all over.

Mitch Petrus, 6’3 305 5.2, Arkansas

Academically ineligible as a junior.

John Jerry, 6’5 330 5.5, Ole Miss

Weight and footspeed concerns, but a beastly run-blocker.

Sergio Render, 6’3 320 5.3, Va Tech

His strength – drive blocking – is what we lack most.

Looking for a pile-mover.

Major Wright, 6’0 205 4.5, Florida (Jr)

Kurt Coleman, 5’11 195 4.5, Ohio St

Plays SS, but will probably move to FS or corner

Myron Rolle, 6’1 215 4.5, ex-Miami

On Rhodes scholarship in UK. Probable switch to SS.

Jonathon Amaya, 6’2 190 4.45, Nevada

Robert Johnson, 6’2 200 4.5, Utah

So far, looks like a terrible year for FS. Most of the best S prospects are SSs or tweeners who will probably move to SS. Good free safeties get harder to find every year…which is why you can usually only solve it by making it a high priority…which we haven’t.

CBs who might be convertible to FS

Akwasi Owusu-Ansah, 6’1 205 4.45, IUP

Could be another Daniel Manning, but could be what Manning was supposed to be

Brian Jackson, 6’1 200 4.5, Oklahoma

Sherrick McManis, 6’1 190 4.5, Northwestern

12/9/09

Short Summaries

4-5) SF 10, Bears 6

The defense does their job against a bad QB, but no running game and 5 interceptions on offense wastes it.

4-6) Philadelphia 24, Bears 20

Another close one gets away.

4-7) Minnesota 36, Bears 10

1-6 in the last 7 games, and the 3^rd complete blowout loss

4-8) Bears 17, STL 9

Bears slow their 1-6 plummet by scratching and clawing out a victory over a 1-win team.

Personnel File

Wolfe got IRed, so that they could finally bring on a healthy body at HB, in the form of PS rookie Khalil Bell.

To take Bell’s PS spot, undrafted rookie TE Kevin Brock was added.

DeAngelo Smith (who I accidentally referred to as DeAngelo Hall last month) was snatched off the PS by Detroit, leading to DE Clermond being reinstated.

PS DE Ervin Baldwin also found a roster spot elsewhere.

WLB Cato June was signed to fill the void after Briggs’ knee injury. June was cut earlier in the year with an injury settlement and is now healthy again.

Roster

( ) contain contract years left at the end of the season. +1 shows RFA and +2 ERFA status after their current contract expires. PUP is the Physically Unable to Perform list, IR for Injured Reserve, and INJ is used for a player hampered by injury, but not on the preceding lists. Bold denotes star players, Underline shows a solid starter, Normal for substandard starters to decent backups, and Italics for poor/raw/ST only players.

OL (8)

CWilliams(3), Beekman(1), Kreutz(1), Garza(2), Shaffer(2)

Pace(2), Omiyale(3), Louis(3)

Marten(PS), Raiola(PS), Asiata(PS)

QB (2)

Cutler(4), Hanie(2+1)

Basanez(PS)

WR (6)

Hester(4), Bennett(2)

Knox(3), RDavis(1)

Aromashodu(1), Iglesias(3)

TE (3)

Olsen(1), Clark(2-INJ), KDavis(2)

Brock(PS)

HB (3)

Forte(2), Peterson(FA), Bell(PS)

Jones (1-IR), Wolfe(1-IR)

FB (1)

McKie(2)

Ta’ufo’ou(PS)

DL (10)

Ogunleye(FA), Harris(3-INJ), AAdams(1), Brown(2)

GAdams(2), Idonije(2), Toeaina(1), Harrison(2), Gilbert(3), Anderson(FA)

Clermond(PS)

Melton(3-IR)

LB (7)

Roach(FA), Hillenmeyer(1), JWilliams(FA)

June(FA), Shaw(FA), McClover(FA) , Briggs(4-INJ)

Tinoisamoa(FA-IR), Urlacher(2-IR)

S (5)

Afalava(3), Manning(FA)

Payne(1), Bullocks(FA)

Steltz(2)

Deleston(IR)

CB (5)

Tillman(4-INJ), Bowman(2), Vasher(3), Graham(1), Moore(3)

Turene(PS)

LS (1)

Mannelly(1)

K (1)

Gould(4)

P (1)

Maynard(1)

Knox, Manning

Hester

2010 Shopping List

Rank.....Position.....Rounds it could be successfully addressed in.....Comment

1) ………..G...….…3-4……………The run-blocking is atrocious. They could easily have only 2 OLmen who deserve to be in a starting lineup in 2010, and certainly no more than 4. Pace and Kreutz both finished.

2)………..WR……..n/a……………Need a veteran starter, and a R3 pick isn’t going to help.

3)…….….HB?…….3-4……………Forte needs help, although a veteran FA could suffice

4)………..FS?.......3-7..……..……Manning has actually shown some improvement. He and Bullocks both are FAs.

5)………..LB...…....4-7…………....Over half the unit will be free agents.

6)………..CB?…….3-7……………Bowman going through growing pains, Vasher is probably a goner, Tillman breaking down.

7) ……….QB?..…...4-7……………Basanez can’t go on the PS again and hasn’t shown enough for the roster.

8)………..FB?……..4-7……………Could be improved and wouldn’t cost much to do it.

With no pick until about 75, it’s going to be an uneventful draft for the Bears in 2010.

Misc

After a disappointing brief fill-in earlier in the season, Jamar Williams had an excellent outing in his first game at WLB, logging 13 tackles in Briggs’s absence. This is the thing I could never get people to recognize during the Briggs contract debates – a 4-3 WLB may be one of the easiest positions on the field to play, and one of the most replaceable, too.

Bell may be decent at HB – hard to judge behind this line.

Season Outlook

After going 3-1 in the first quarter of the season, the Bears have gone 1-3/1-3 in the last 2, and figure to go 1-3 in the final quarter. They’ve finally found their level – clearly above dregs like Detroit and STL, but below everyone else.

As bad as things are (2-6 in the last 8 games), I don’t have much good news for fans who want the coaching staff out now.

The old claim "the Bears are too cheap for _______" quit being true 15 years ago with regards to players. Unfortunately, it’s still true when it comes to the staff. From the low-balling of Dave McGinnis to the feeble attempt to land Nick Saban, the Bears are still tightwads who only hire inexperienced coaches that come cheap. And they don’t readily dispose of coaches they still owe money to.

While Hub Arkush has sources that say the Bears are making preliminary inquiries around the league, I’m awfully skeptical about them actually pulling the trigger – it would be quite a step forward for the franchise if they did.

Ditka didn't get fired until 2 straight losing seasons.
Jauron didn't get fired until 2 straight losing seasons.

Wanny didn't get fired until 3 straight losing seasons (even though the 2nd was a 4-12!!)

I think we’re probably stuck looking at a complete write-off on the 2010 season before we’re ready to start getting serious about being competitive again.

(Which is unfortunate, because we ought to be drafting to the new coach’s system in 2010, not to Lovie’s. But I guess you can look at having almost no high draft picks as a roundabout blessing in that sense.)

The things that might spare us from this are:

1) There’s some really top-notch out of work coaches right now

2) The Halas/McCaskey family has ties to the Rooney’s – which could lead to a recommendation for Cowher.

As much as I’m eager to get the change process under way, I’m not excited about Cowher, either. This team desperately needs an offense-oriented HC for once. Lovie isn’t, Jauron wasn’t, Wanny wasn't, Ditka wasn’t (he was a ST coach before coming to the Bears)…I don’t know when the last time we had an actual offensive mind in the top spot…and it shows in the product. One way they could account for this without an offensive HC is with someone like Charlie Weis. Still, I’m rooting for Shanahan.

Players to Watch

Myron Rolle, 6’2 215 4.5, ex-Florida State

On Rhodes scholarship in UK. Probable switch to SS.

Kurt Coleman, 5’11 190 4.5, Ohio St

Plays SS, but will probably move to FS or corner

Robert Johnson, 6’2 200 4.5, Utah

AJ Wallace, 6’1 195 4.45, Penn St

A CB we could consider converting

Robert Vaughn, 6’1 200 4.5, UConn

11/12/09

Short Summaries

3-2) Atlanta 21, Bears 14

See-saw affair could have gone either way.

3-3) Cincinnati 45, Bears 10

Cincinnati scores on 7 of their first 7 possessions as the Bears get utterly annihilated. Bears only TD comes late in the game when Lovie had absolutely no business still playing Cutler.

4-3) Bears 30, Cleveland 6

Bears get their revenge against Ohio. Fans and media, however, clearly still don’t have the taste of last week out of their mouths yet.

4-4) Arizona 41, Bears 21

In a flashback to 2 weeks ago, the Bears D allows scores on Arizona’s first 6 possessions of the game.

Personnel File

In a trade that no one saw coming, DE Gaines Adams was acquired from the Bucs for a 2010 R2 pick.

To compound the surprise, the Bears decided to keep 10 on the DL and cut TE Michael Gaines instead.

(Also, as a trickle-down, both PS DEs were dropped, and Asiata and Hall were brought back to it.)

Tinoisamoa immediately went right back down with another, more serious knee injury (possibly from the previous damage not really being healed yet).

Garrett Wolfe is out with a lacerated kidney, but, instead of looking for more help, it looks like they’re just going to count on Peterson being recovered.

One of Tillman’s bad shoulders is acting up and that could be bad news. He’s the only bright spot of the secondary.

Mid-Term Grades

Position grades are based on how strong I predicted the unit would be, right now in 2009, relative to the rest of the NFL, followed by what we’ve actually seen, cumulatively, over the first 8 games.

OL (8)

Pace(2), Beekman(1), Kreutz(1), Garza(2), CWilliams(3)

Shaffer(2), Omiyale(3), Louis(3)

Marten(PS), Raiola(PS), Asiata(PS)

3 new starters, 2 new to the Bears, and 2 playing new positions means this unit is going to need time to gel. Kreutz and Pace are both battling against age to hold on a while longer.

B-

No encouraging signs here.

QB (2)

Cutler(4), Hanie(2+1)

Basanez(PS)

Cutler is a QB to fear – for other teams, for a change. Hanie is untested. Basanez will run the scout team and serve as an insurance policy.

Cutler’s QB rating is unimpressive and he has too many picks, but you do have to give him credit for working with no running game, so-so pass protection, and inexperienced receivers.

WR (6)

Hester(4), Bennett(2)

Knox(3), RDavis(1)

Aromashodu(1), Iglesias(3)

Deep, but feeble at the top and very inexperienced. Good mix of speed and hands guys, but no size, as always.

D+

Very respectable numbers, but some of that is an illusion, caused by a) Cutler making them look good, and b) tons of pass attempts, since the run game has been abandoned.

C-

TE (3)

Olsen(1), Clark(2), KDavis(2)

Defenses have worked to take away Olsen, but he’s still been a disappointment. And still blocks like a WR.

HB (3)

Forte(2), Wolfe(1-INJ), Peterson(FA)

Bell(PS)

Jones (1-IR)

Hard to tell if the blame is all on the OL, or partly Forte, too. I think mostly the former.

C-

FB (1)

McKie(2)

Ta’ufo’ou(PS)

McKie is an ok versatile FB.

C-

DL (10)

Ogunleye(FA), Harris(3-INJ), AAdams(1), Brown(2)

GAdams(2), Idonije(2), Toeaina(1), Harrison(2), Gilbert(3), Anderson(FA)

Melton(3-IR)

Started fair, but humiliated in the last 2 losses.

C-

LB (6)

Roach(FA), Hillenmeyer(1), Briggs(4)

JWilliams(FA), Shaw(FA), McClover(FA)

Tinoisamoa(FA-IR), Urlacher(2-IR)

The Bears are good and very deep here, although it’s unfortunately at the least impactful position group in a 4-3 defense.

B+

Will all the injuries, the depths of the…uh, depth…are being plumbed.

C-

S (5)

Afalava(3), Manning(FA)

Payne(1), Bullocks(FA)

Steltz(2)

Deleston(IR)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tpl4Cr3-Tm0&feature=related

The best player in the whole group is the rookie 6^th rounder. Manning might just play NB, but might be forced into playing FS, too.

Manning has been a little better, and this really hasn’t been worse than any other position. Which is something, I guess.

C-

CB (5)

Tillman(4-INJ), Bowman(2), Vasher(3), Graham(1), Moore(3)

Turene(PS), Hall(PS)

B-

The big cushions go on forever. Bowman enduring growing pains.

C-

LS (1)

Mannelly(1)

K (1)

Gould(4)

P (1)

Maynard(1)

Knox, Manning

Hester

Dave Toub hasn’t ever fielded a special teams unit that wasn’t good, although last year’s version certainly was a dropoff from what we’re used to. All the skill players are back.

B+

About as expected.

B+

2010 Shopping List

Rank.....Position.....Rounds it could be successfully addressed in.....Comment

1) ………..G...….…3-4……………The run-blocking is atrocious. They could easily have only 2 OLmen who deserve to be in a starting lineup in 2010, and certainly no more than 4.

2)…….….HB?…….3-4……………Forte needs help, although a veteran FA could suffice

3)………..FS?....….3-7..……..……Manning has actually shown some improvement. He and Bullocks both are FAs.

4)………..CB?…….3-7……………Bowman looks shaky, Vasher is probably a goner, Tillman breaking down.

5)………..LB...…....4-7…………....Over half the unit will be free agents.

6) ……….QB?..…...4-7……………Basanez can’t go on the PS again and hasn’t shown enough for the roster.

7)………..FB?……..4-7……………Could be improved and wouldn’t cost much to do it.

With no pick until about 80, it’s going to be an uneventful draft for the Bears in 2010.　

Inside Out

When Angelo came to Chicago, he said that you build a team from the inside out (ie, in the trenches).

In his 8 offseasons, here are the meaningful (7^th round fliers excluded) OL draft selections:

R1-2002 Marc Colombo

R3-2002 Terrance Metcalf

R4-2007 Josh Beekman

R1-2008 Chris Williams

Yeah, you read that right. 4 picks in 8 years and a FOUR YEAR span of NONE.

What about free agency? He’s brought in:

G Reuben Brown

T Fred Miller

G Roberto Garza

T Orlando Pace

G Dan Buenning

T John St Clair

T Aaron Gibson

T Kevin Shaffer

G/T/something (in theory) Frank Omiyale

T John Tait

The first five were cheap age and/or injury reclamation projects and, overall, worked about as well as you would expect. Brown – 2 pretty good years, 2 hurt/bad years. Miller – also 2 good years, 2 hurt/bad years. Garza was scooped when he was found to have a missing ACL and no one wanted him. He’s been consistently adequate for 5 seasons. Buenning lost his job due to injury, came here for a late pick and did nothing. Pace looks like his best days are well behind him – not unlike the defenders he was supposed to block. Gibson, Shaffer, and St Clair were considered borderline starters. Gibson started a little (mostly poorly), St Clair some and adequately, and Shaffer not yet. Omiyale was supposed to be a ‘hidden gem’, because he only got 1 start on his rookie contract, but ostensibly had loads of potential. Tait was the only definite starter with no serious health or age issues landed, and he earned his money for 5 years. Why was Tait the only primo acquisition? Good lineman don’t hit FA very often, and the very few that do cost an arm and a leg. You can’t count on building your line with free agents…however, that’s exactly what we’ve been doing.

So, we invested very little in draft picks and we learned that you get what you pay for when you buy cheap scrap-heap FAs. No surprise to see how barren of talent the offensive line is.

On the other side of the line, the story is different. Well, half different, anyway.

R4-2002 DE Alex Brown

R1-2003 DE Michael Haynes

R4-2003 DT Ian Scott

R1-2004 DT Tommie Harris

R2-2004 DT Tank Johnson

R5-2004 DE Claude Harriot

R3-2006 DT Dusty Dvoracek

R5-2006 DE Mark Anderson

R2-2007 DE Dan Bazuin

R3-2008 DT Marcus Harrison

R3-2009 DT Jarron Gilbert

R4-2009 DE Henry Melton

A whopping 12 picks in 8 years, 7 of them in the first 3 rounds. On top of that, they dealt a R2 for DE Gaines Adams and a R3 (and Booker) for DE Adewale Ogunleye. The defensive line certainly isn’t being neglected. However, other parts of the team are (OL and S come to mind), due to all the picks pouring into the DL.

And what have we got to show for all that investment?

From the 5 later picks, Alex Brown is the lone success (a so-so overall ROI) at this point. However, from the early picks, Bazuin and Haynes were complete write-offs. Dusty was a loss, too, due to injuries. Tank’s behavior issues (which were known before the draft) got his ticket punched before he contributed much. Harrison has really underwhelmed the last couple weeks. Adams and Gilbert can get incompletes for now. Ogunleye has been a starter, but a with very checkered production. Tommie was a star for a few years, but a knee injury has reduced him to a tiresome liability the last few. In total, we have 2 so-so starters (Brown and Ogun) and the key to the defense (UT) has been unfilled for years.

When you dump that much resource into a unit, you need to come away with dominance, not spotty mediocrity.

When the discussion starts turning to rebuilding, the lack of quality on the lines – from both trying and not trying to find any, as the case may be – is going to play a large role in the discussion.

Season Outlook

Last month the Bears won ¾ of their games and I warned that they weren’t as good as that looked. This month they’re down to a .500 record…and still might not be as good as that, either. Two pitiful teams (Detroit, STL) will help them stumble to an approximately .500 finish, maybe.

But this team is in big trouble.

When you do things like trade a pile of draft picks (2 R1s, 1 R2, 1 R3) for players, that means you’re sacrificing some of your future to win now. Except, after trading all those picks, the Bears aren’t doing that much ‘winning now’. And this spring, when everyone else is getting better, the Bears will be sitting on their thumbs, hoping to scrounge up a steal or two somewhere.

How many veteran, quality, established players, who will still be able to get it done 2+ years from now are there on this roster? Almost none. There’s a few youngsters that could do something, but are far from definite players. Tillman, Urlacher, Tinoisamoa might be around, but might be health scratches. Cutler, Briggs, and Brown are the only real certainties you can build around. And of those, Cutler is the only one who really qualifies as a difference-maker.

Lovie’s D needs a stud UT, rangy MLB, and good FS to work. Right now, we have none of those things (Urlacher will be back, but not for many more years). This would be the perfect time to cut him loose and rebuild towards a new coach’s system. With two years left on his deal, it’s not going to happen, though. They’ll battle through this season, then (hopefully) 2010 will be enough to get him removed. If the team keeps on scrapping along in the 7-9 win range, they’re never going to be willing to perform the full rebuilding necessary. Also, the sooner Lovie goes, the better Angelo’s contract synchs up with the new coach’s. If Lovie lasts through the end of his deal (2011), then the new coach will be hired with 2 yrs left for Angelo. If Angelo then gets canned, we have a new GM coming in with a coach he didn’t pick and may not want (which is exactly how it was when Angelo arrived – and that made for a messy and awkward couple years).

Speaking of coaches – some people are complaining about Ron Turner (Why, I have no idea. What do you think a coordinator can do with play-calling when your run game is a complete, hopeless, pathetic joke?). Lovie and Angelo might like the idea of making him a fall guy, but a) I think most people can see the defense is the bigger problem, and b) What OC of any talent is going to come here and join on with a lame duck HC like Lovie? No one.

Players to Watch

Montario Hardesty, 6’0 215 4.5, Tennessee

Andre Anderson, 6’0 215 4.5, Tulane

Succeeded Forte.

Javarris James, 6’0 215 4.55, Miami

Inconsistent. Edgerrin’s cousin.

Keiland Williams, 6’0 220 4.5, LSU

One of those guys who could be better as a pro than collegian.

Almost any type will do, so long as they aren’t undersized/light or with serious durability issues.

10/12/09

Short Summaries

0-1) Green Bay 21, Bears 15

The left side of the line (particularly Omiyale) looks awful. Cutler has a Rexian game. Receivers look young and confused, making all sorts of mistakes. The defense does a pretty good job of overcoming the offense, but comes up short when Vasher gets burned badly.

1-1) Bears 17, Pittsburgh 14

Bears salvage the season with a nailbiting win. Offense abandons a pitiful run game and goes all arial. Gould hits 1-1 in the rain, while his Steeler counterpart goes 0-2, and that was the only difference.

2-1) Bears 25, Seattle 19

Bears barely sneak away with a W against a decimated Seahawk team. Cutler shines for the second straight week, while the run game fails for the third time.

3-1) Bears 48, Detroit 24

A much closer game than the final score suggests. Detroit won time of possession by a ratio of more than 60/40 and was having their way with the Bears before a slew of huge kick returns turned the tide.

Personnel File

McBride made the roster temporarily while Tillman and Bowman were hampered, but once he got dinged himself, he was unable to serve as a fill-in, and got the boot.20His replacement was rookie 5^th round CB DeAngelo Hall.

Fringe player Tim Shaw took Urlacher’s roster spot (not LaRocque or McClover, as you would expect), now that he is out for the season.

After a rash of LB injuries, McClover finally was brought back, with Hall getting dropped (although both moves may be temporary).

Bonus Oddity

Speaking of Urlacher getting hurt, here’s an interesting story:

http://chicagosmma.com/2009/08/bas-rutten-tells-the-brian-urlacher-story/

Roster

OL (8)

Pace(2), Omiyale(3), Kreutz(1), Garza(2), CWilliams(3)

Shaffer(2), Beekman(1), Louis(3)

Marten(PS), Raiola(PS)

QB (2)

Cutler(2), Hanie(2+1)

Basanez(PS)

WR (6)

Hester(4-INJ), Bennett(2)

Knox(3), Aromashodu(1)

RDavis(1), Iglesias(3)

TE (4)

Olsen(1), Clark(2), KDavis(2), Gaines(FA)

HB (3)

Forte(2), Wolfe(1), Peterson(FA-INJ)

Bell(PS)

Jones (1-IR)

FB (1)

McKie(2)

Ta’ufo’ou(PS)

DL (9)

Ogunleye(FA), Harris(3-INJ), Adams(1), Brown(2)

Idonije(2-INJ), Toeaina(1), Harrison(2), Gilbert(3), Anderson(FA)

Baldwin(PS), Clermond(PS)

Melton(3-IR)

LB (6)

Tinoisamoa(FA-INJ), Hillenmeyer(1-INJ), Briggs(4)

Roach(FA), JWilliams(FA), Shaw(FA), McClover(FA)

Urlacher(2-IR)

S (5)

Afalava(3), Manning(FA)

Payne(1), Bullocks(FA)

Steltz(2)

Deleston(IR)

CB (6)

Tillman(4), Bowman(2), Vasher(3), Graham(1), Moore(3)

Turene(PS)

LS (1)

Mannelly(1)

K (1)

Gould(4)

P (1)

Maynard(1)

Manning, Knox

Hester

2010 Shopping List

Rank.....Position.....Rounds it could be successfully addressed in.....Comment

1) ………..G?..….…2-4……………The run-blocking is horrible, but will they give up on Omiyale and his 3.5M/yr contract that quickly? He’s got 12 games (at most) to convince otherwise.

2)………..DE?…….2-3……………Ogun and Anderson expire after 09.

3)………..FS?....….2-3..……..……Manning has actually shown some improvement.

4)………..DT?…….2-3……………With Dusty gone and Tommie perpetually broken, there could be yet another pick here (depending on where they want to play Izzy and how Gilbert progresses).

5)………..LB...…....4-7…………....Over half the unit will be free agents.

6)…….….HB?…….2-4……………Forte needs help, although a veteran FA should suffice

7) ……….QB?..…...4-7……………Basanez can’t go on the PS again and hasn’t shown enough for20the roster.

8)………..FB?..…..4-7……………Could be improved and wouldn’t cost much to do it.

9)………..CB?…….3-7……………If Vasher goes as a cost-cutting measure, depth could be sought.

When’s the last time WR wasn’t on the list?

Needs are very unclear at this juncture, as suggested by all the question marks.　

Season Outlook

The early bye actually comes at a very good time for the Bears – they’ve got truckloads of minor injuries that could really use 2 weeks of recovery.

So far, the run-blocking has been terrible and the pass protection fair.

Cutler has had 1 awful game and 3 great.

The young receivers have looked very promising.

The defense has been mediocre, but S has been less conspicuous than feared.

The special teams work has been spectacular.

3-1 is a big accomplishment for such a rough stretch of schedule. However, the team probably isn’t as good as "3-1" makes them sound. 10-6 and a wildcard sounds right as a final outcome to me.

Players to Watch

Ciron Black, 69 95 320 5.4, LSU

Currently plays LT, but may be better suited inside.

Sergio Render, 6’3 325 5.3, Virginia Tech

His strength – drive blocking – is what we lack most.

Mike Johnson, 6’5 300 5.2, Alabama

Talented, but a bit light for our purposes.

Zane Beadles, 6’4 310 5.3, Utah

Doubtful to play T at the next level.

John Jerry, 6’5 345 5.5, Ole Miss

Weight and foot-speed concerns, but a beastly run-blocker.

Tremendous lack of consensus about the best G prospects right now.

9/11/09

Roster

Position grades are based on how strong I feel the unit will be, right now in 2009, relative to the rest of the NFL.

OL (8)

Pace(2), Omiyale(3), Kreutz(1), Garza(2), CWilliams(3)

Shaffer(2), Beekman(1), Louis(3)

Marten(PS), Raiola(PS), Asiata(PS)

3 new starters, 2 new to the Bears, and 2 playing new positions means this unit is going to need time to gel. Kreutz and Pace are both battling against age to hold on a while longer.

B-

QB (2)

Cutler(2), Hanie(2+1)

Basanez(PS)

Cutler is a QB to fear – for other teams, for a change. Hanie is untested. Basanez will run the scout team and serve as an insurance policy.

WR (6)

Hester(4), Bennett(2)

Knox(3), Aromashodu(1)

RDavis(1), Iglesias(3)

Deep, but feeble at the top and very inexperienced. Good mix of speed and hands guys, but no size, as always.

D+

TE (4)

Olsen(1), Clark(2), KDavis(2), Gaines(FA)

HB (3)

Forte(2), Wolfe(1), Peterson(FA)

Jones (1-IR)

FB (1)

McKie(2)

Ta’ufo’ou(PS)

McKie is an ok versatile FB.

C-

DL (9)

Ogunleye(FA), Harris(3-INJ), Adams(1), Brown(2)

Id onije(2), Toeaina(1), Harrison(2), Gilbert(3), Anderson(FA)

Baldwin(PS), Clermond(PS)

Melton(3-IR)

LB (6)

Tinoisamoa(FA), Urlacher(2), Briggs(4)

Hillenmeyer(1), JWilliams(FA-INJ), Roach(FA)

The Bears are good and very deep here, although it’s unfortunately at the least impactful position group in a 4-3 defense.

B+

S (5)

Afalava(3), Manning(FA)

Payne(1), Bullocks(FA)

Steltz(2)

Deleston(IR)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tpl4Cr3-Tm0&feature=related

The best player in the whole group is the rookie 6^th rounder. Manning might just play NB, but might be forced into playing FS, too.

CB (6)

Tillman(4-INJ), Bowman(2), Vasher(3), Graham(1), Moore(3), McBride(1)

Turene(PS)

</ div>

B-

LS (1)

Mannelly(1)

K (1)

Gould(4)

P (1)

Maynard(1)

Manning, Knox

Hester

Dave Toub hasn’t ever fielded a special teams unit that wasn’t good, although last year’s version certainly was a dropoff from what we’re used to. All the skill players are back.

B+

Season Outlook

Originally, this was going to be a mediocre, but overachieving and aging team, crying out for rebuilding. The addition of Cutler, followed by 3 more new starters in Pace, Omiyale, and Tinoisamoa changed perspectives and expectations tremendously.

Now the Bears are in the thick of a 3-horse NFCN race, where anyone could take the division, and any of them could go considerably further.

Still, there are a lot of new starters (probably Pace, Omiyale, CWilliams, Cutler, Tinoisamoa, Afalava, and Bowman), question marks (Forte’s health and no backups, WRs that probably hold the NFL record for fewest total career catches as a unit in the Super Bowl era, a mess at S, Harris and Urlacher’s health, uncertainty at CB), crucial players who could be finished soon (Pace, Kreutz, Ogunleye, Harris, Urlacher), and those on the wrong side of 30 (Garza, Clark, Maynard, Brown, among others).

I can easily see 11 wins and a return to the Super Bowl and I can easily see only 7-8 wins and a lot of shock and rage. I’m going to split the difference and take 9-7 and a wildcard round victory.

9/1/09

Stock Watch

Peterson chewed up the 3^rd stringers in mop-up duty. On the flip side, despite assurances that he’s 100% and spectacular, Jones has yet to show anything in games.

McBride bombed against Denver, prompting the Bears to pounce when Rod Hood was cut.

Pace looked so bad, I started wondering how much further it would have to go for Williams to flip sides and insert Shaffer at RT.

Aromashodu is slowly climbing, while Rideau slowly fades.

Clark has definitely shown far too much to get squeezed out this year.

Gilbert has been invisible while Toeaina has made plays.

I’ve not heard DJ Moore’s name all summer. Now, granted, CB is one of those positions where no news is good news much of the time, but never?

Roster Handicapping

My updated odds on who makes the 53 man.

* shows players both believed eligible for the practice squad and possible candidates

OL (8)

Yes: CWilliams, Garza, Omiyale, Kreutz, Pace, Shaffer, Beekman, Buenning

No: Balogh*, Louis*, Raiola*, Asiata*

Re ed was threatening to break through, then wiped out with a knee injury.

QB (2-3)

Yes: Cutler, Hanie

No: Basanez*

Still haven’t added a vet. Will only keep 2 if they don’t get one.

WR (5-6)

Yes: Hester, Bennett, Iglesias

Maybe: RDavis, Knox*, Aromashodu, Rideau

No: Peterman*, Broussard*

As usual, the starters are pitiful, but there’re more guys with legitimate claims at being NFL-caliber than there are roster spots. Anything more than a hangnail should net Iglesias an IR redshirt. Kinder (2009 R7) cut already.

TE (3-4)

Yes: Olsen, Clark

Maybe: KDavis, Gaines

I think they’re going to keep all 4 for now, treating Gaines as a TE/FB/h-B, and keeping only 1 pure FB.

HB (3-4)

Yes: Forte

Maybe: Jones, Wolfe, Peterson

Carrying 4 (unless one also plays FB or WR, which they can’t) is a terrible waste, but Wolfe and Peterson are darlings of Angelo and Lovie, respectively. Despite assurances from camp that Jones is now fully recovered and spectacular, he’s been done nothing in games.

FB (1)

Yes: McKie

No: JDavis*, Ta’ufo’ou*

Because of the usage of 2 TE sets and the possibility of an extra HB or WR, FB will almost definitely be shorted.

DL (8-9)

Yes: Brown, Idonije, Ogunleye, Adams, Harris, Anderson, Gilbert, Harrison

Maybe: Toeaina*, Melton*

No: Baldwin*, Clermond*

Dvoracek was waived with injury #4. Melton is in a walking boot and will probably get IR. Gilbert is also useless so far, but drafted too high for cutting or PS. Toeaina is significantly better and may force them to keep 9 after all.

LB (6-7)

Yes: Urlacher, Briggs, Tinoisamoa, Freeman

Maybe: JWilliams, Hillenmeyer, Roach, McClover, Malast*, Rivera*

LaRocque got turned loose already. Williams is in jeopardy because of an ankle injury, leading to McClover being brought back. The fact that they added a LB when they already had 6 healthy is a good indication they really want to go with 7.

DB (9-10)

Yes: Tillman, Graham, Bowman, Manning, Afalava, Payne

Maybe: Vasher, Moore*, Hood, Steltz, Bullocks

No: McBride, Turene*, Deleston*, Hamilton*

A draft pick and/or vet will get the axe here, too. Tillman and Bowman may force them to keep 10-11 temporarily, then drop down to 9-10 when they return.

LS (1)

Yes: Mannelly

K (1)

Yes: Gould

P (1)

Yes: Maynard

8/3/09

Welcome to Training Camp 2009 for the Chicago Cutlers!

Everyone’s feverish about having a real QB for the first time in ages. The Cutlers are expected to be in a 3-way dogfight for the NFCN, and for the NFC title itself, if they can make it out of the division.

　

Stock Watch

Urlacher is supposedly in much better shape than last year, when his neck rehab interfered with offseason conditioning.

We were told Tommie Harris is finally completely, 100% back…right before he had his typical limited participation in day 2 of camp.

Kevin Jones is also being talked up as recovered from his knee injury and ready to return to form.

Charles Tillman, one of my very favorites, is starting to pile up the injuries. With his new back surgery, he’s now logged 2 sets of shoulder surgeries and 2 back surgeries at only 6 years in the league. He’s been tough and missed pretty little time, but it’s not an encouraging long-term prognosis for a valuable, not very old guy.

He was told 6-13 weeks to return 2+ weeks ago. He ought to end up missing and/or limited for a few games. Bad news for an already messed-up secondary, where they wanted to move Graham over to FS, but since he was their 2^nd best corner last year, they may not be ab le to.

On the other hand, Zack Bowman was a star of minicamps and has picked right up where he left off. Much more of that and they may firm up Graham’s move, after all (and have
Vasher and Manning looking out for their jobs, when Tillman returns). He’s going to be hard to keep off the field.

Marcus Harrison showed up out of shape, supposedly due to a family issue/distraction, and he was placed on an injury list while he tries to get in playing condition.

Forte seems to be participating, despite the hamstring pull.

Roster Handicapping

My early odds on who makes the 53 man.

* shows players both believed eligible for the practice squad and possible candidates

(however, teams do not follow the CBA PS eligibility rules posted online, so either it has been amended and never updated, or the NFL simply doesn’t care about enforcing them, meaning other longtime fringe players marked with ** could end up there)

OL (8)

Yes: Pace, Omiyale, Kreutz, Garza, Williams, Shaffer, Beekman, Buenning

No: Louis*, Reed**, Balogh*, Asiata*

Roster spots all set, although some starting jobs are up for grabs.

QB (2-3)
Yes: Cutler

Maybe: Hanie*, Basanez*

Still haven’t added a vet. Could surprise by only keeping 2, since roster spots for Hanie and Basanez both would be a huge waste.

WR (5-6)

Yes: Hester, Bennett, Iglesias, Davis, Knox*

Maybe: Rideau**, Aromashodu**

No: Peterman*, Kinder*, Broussard*

Rideau is getting some opportunity and seems to be making a decent early case for keeping 6.

TE (3-4)
Yes: Clark, Olsen

Maybe: Davis, Gaines

No: Mines*

Seem to be considering Gaines as a TE/FB, even though he’s much too tall for FB. Could also count Olsen as a WR, which is what he really is.

HB (3-4)
Yes: Forte, Jones

Maybe: Wolfe, Peterson

Carrying 4 (unless one also plays FB or WR, which they can’t) is a terrible waste, but Wolfe and Peterson are darlings of Angelo and Lovie, respectively. Forte’s hamstring injury may prove to be a job-saver for them.

FB (1-2)
Yes: McKie

Maybe: Davis*, Ta’ufo’ou*

Because of the usage of 2 TE sets and the possibility of an extra HB or WR, FB will almost definitely be shorted.

DL (8-10)

Yes: Ogunleye, Brown, Harrison, Gilbert, Idonije, Harris, Melton

Maybe: Adams, Dvoracek, Anderson

No: Toeaina*, Baldwin*, Clermond*

A name player could get whacked, but I doubt it. Melton may get 'redshirted'.

=0 A

LB (6-7)
Yes: Urlacher, Briggs, Williams, Freeman

Maybe: Tinoisamoa, Roach, Hillenmeyer, Rivera*, Malast*

LaRocque got turned loose already. 3 more vets are on the bubble, though.

DB (10)

Yes: Tillman, Graham, Payne, Bowman, DManning, Bullocks, Moore

Maybe: Vasher, Steltz, Earl, Afalava*, McBride

No: Turene*, Deleston*, Hamilton*, Burgess*

Draft picks and/or vets will get the axe here, too.

LS (1)

Yes: Mannelly

K (1)

Yes: Gould

P (1)

Yes: Maynard

No: McGee

On defense, there’s lots of position competition. On offense, not much – a little WR and Peterson/Wolfe.

The biggest competition at the bottom of the roster is usually at least as much about trying to convince coaches to spend that extra roster spot on your position group as it is between players at a position. So, across positions, these guys are playing the numbers game:

QB Basanez, HB Peterson, WR Rideau, one of a couple Dlmen, and the loser of the 3 vet LBs

2010 Shopping List

Rank.....Position.....Rounds it could be successfully addressed in.....Comment

1)………..FS.....….2-3..…………..Bears are throwing as much as they can at the wall and hoping something sticks here. No individual option is a good bet, though.

2)………..DE……..2-3……………Ogun and Anderson expire after 09. Both have been invisible lately and Ogunleye will be 32.

3) ………..G..….…3-6…………… Only 8 bodies and Buenning a FA.

4) ……….QB..…...4-6…………… As weak a backup situation as you’ll ever see in the NFL, and they seem determined not to bring in a vet.

5)………..LB..…....4-7…………....Williams and Roach are free agents

6)………..FB?…….4-7……………Could be improved and wouldn’t cost much to do it.

We’re in a situation where we’re liable to badly need starting DE and FS, both of those rarely last past mid-R2, and without our R1 we’ll be lucky to be able to draft one likely starter there, much less two.

Myron Rolle, 6’2 215 4.5, ex-FSU

On Rhodes scholarship in UK. Probable switch to SS.

Robert Vaughn, 6’1 200 4.5, UConn

Kurt Coleman, 5’11 190 4.45, Ohio St

Major Wright, 6’1 205 4.5, Florida (Jr)

AJ Wallace, 6’1 195 4.45, Penn St

A CB we could consider converting

Most of the best S prospects are SSs or tweeners who will probably move to SS. Good free safeties get harder to find every year…which is why you can usually only solve it by making it a high priority…which we haven’t.

Early indications are this draft will be loaded with edge rushers – so many that I’m not going to try and list them all. At least half will be gone by our first pick, anyway. But there should be options left in rounds 2-3. R2-3 talent may be more ‘rotational contributors’ than ‘step in and start at LDE’ quality, though, if Ogunleye were cut loose.

6/15/09

Misc

Israel Idonije got a 2yr extension with high pay for a backup (which he might not be next year, if Ogunleye looks as replaceable as he did last season). Like a vastly less annoying version of Kirstie Alley, Idonije’s weight continues to rise and fall, as he’s now a DE again, after being told to lose the 30+ pounds he was told to put on last season.

Another ex-Ram, LB Pisa Tinoisamoa, joined up with a cheap 1yr trial deal. He’ll be fighting for the wide open starting SLB job.

Out of desperation, the Bears have been testing most of the DBs at different positions and claiming they can play positions they can’t. One switch that they may be serious about that might actually work out is they seem to have decided on giving CB Corey Graham a go at FS.

Grossman has finally landed somewhere – 1 yr, no risk, veteran minimum deal with Houston. While he could end up 1 slot higher or lower, he figures most likely to snag the #3 job there.

Meanwhile there’s still zero buzz about the Bears getting any serious backup QB help. The Bucs are well known to be carrying more than they could possibly put on the Opening Day roster. I’d like to think the Bears are engaged in a waiting game of chicken with Tampa, where the Bears want to see who gets cut before choosing which vet to bring in,20while the Bucs try to hold on to them all long enough to force someone to give up a pick (in order to posses them in enough time to teach them their system).

In injury news, Matt Forte went down with a hamstring pull that is being downplayed. However, an audible popping noise from the hamstring is never good and the Bears always publicly minimize injuries. Add up fatigue fears from last year’s heavy usage, no production from any backups last season, and the astounding percentage of the offense Forte accounted for, and it’s definitely worth a little worry.

The other discouraging health report is that, after a full offseason and almost 3 years removed from his first knee injury and at the hale young age of 26, Tommie Harris still is very limited – even in light OTA workouts. I can’t even remember the last time his outlook was good.

Cutlers Both Ways

For various reasons, I didn’t get a chance to talk much about the Cutler deal, back when it happened.

I was initially livid at the price tag, although I’ve moderated somewhat since then. Here are some of the plusses and minuses to the issue:

If you draft a QB in the first round, your odds of hitting are less than 50/50. Therefore, 2 firsts for a sure thing good QB is a steal. 2R1s and a R3 is ok. But you don’t have to waste years watching one of your picks fail or years developing one that does have the goods, so that tips the balance back in favor of making the deal.

A flaw in that argument is – veterans who are well-established with one team/scheme, then move to another one are not sure things. Some players see dramatic improvements when they leave (Jake Plummer and Thomas Jones leaving AZ). Other players drop off significantly when they play somewhere else (Mushin Muhammed or Bryan Cox coming to Chicago).

Usually when a team is up against it and has to trade a player (price tag, falling out, too many bodies at the position), it winds up being at a reduced price less than their ‘true’ value. Cutler’s price was not reduced in way. I can’t remember another player netting that much in draft picks anytime in recent memory. Drew Bledsoe going for a single R1 pick is the most comparable situation I can think of.

Is Cutler that much better than Bledsoe? Well, maybe, maybe not. Supporters like to promote Cutler’s Pro Bowl selection. But, the problem is – Pro Bowl selections are often undeserved and not a very meaningful indicator. For example, look no further than Tommie Harris, a 2007-8 Pro Bowler and a 2008-9 1^st alternate. That’s laughable.

Cutler has had better ratings than Bledsoe. But, remember rule changes and scheme changes have led to a rise in QB ratings over time. Bledso e’s last full season before the trade, his rating ranked 19^th in the league. Last year, Jay Cutler’s rating was…a very, very un-Pro Bowl-like 16^th in the league.

The modern poster child for unwise blockbuster trades is the 1989 Hershel Walker deal. Since that time, not many trades of veterans for major picks has occurred. Here’s all the ones I could come up with:

1998: QB Rob Johnson = R1 + R4

Result – played fairly well, but not healthy enough for a single full season and only 26 starts in 4 years. Regrettable.

2005: WR Randy Moss = R1 + R7 + LB Napolean Harris

Result – one good but not great season, team disruption, 4^th rounder in trade. Regrettable.

2009: LT Jason Peters = R1 + R4 + R6

2007: QB Matt Schaub = 2 R2

2008: WR Roy Williams = R1 + R3 + R6 – R7

2008: DE Jared Allen = R1 + 2 R3

1998: DL Sean Gilbert = 2 R1

Result - 3 good years plus 2 broken down ones, but called a debacle by ESPN, and his coach quoted as regretting it. Team never went anywhere. Regrettable.

2000: WR Keyshawn Johnson = 2 R1

Result – 2 good years and 2 uninspiring. Traded for Joey Galloway. Did win a Super Bowl in one of his good years, though. Worked out.

2000: WR Joey Galloway = 2 R1

Result – 4 very underwhelming years. Later traded for Keyshawn, which gave them 2 decent years. Regrettable.

2002: HB Ricky Williams = 2 R1

Result – 1 spectacular yr and 3 fair, but with the disappearing act in between, I’m sure they don’t feel good about the deal.

2009: QB Jay Cutler = 2 R1 + R3 + QB Kyle Orton – R5

Which is to say:

a) Since the Walker deal taught teams a lesson about dealing big picks for players, what we gave up for Cutler is the most any team has traded in the last 20 years.

b) Of all the deals that were close in size and old enough to judge, almost all of them ended badly for the teams giving the picks.

(Even the one that I’m calling a ‘success’ only worked because he helped them to a Super Bowl and brought them something decent in a subsequent trade, not because he gave production worthy of 2 R1s.)

In summary, I’m excited about the possibilities if Cutler pans out, but I’m quite leery about what history has to say.

I Did It My Way

Back in the day when Bear drafts were consistently horrible, I got the idea in my head that I could do a better job, without even seeing film, meeting players, or having inside medical info (which is a big handicap sometimes) 0 just reading the opinions of experts and studying the combine numbers. As it turns out I was right (at least at that time, and often still). Either way, it’s still fun to play GM and see how the drafts do in comparison. Plus, there’s little going on this time of year, and it’s instructive to look back over past drafts and see how they panned out.

My selections are made on draft day(s) while we are on the clock – not a few days later or a few rounds later - which is infinitely more difficult than a ‘hindsight draft’ (picking players after the draft ends or years later is very easy). (You can tell these aren’t, because there’s almost always at least one player I could have gotten in a later round). Older drafts, I’m not publishing for space reasons, and not yet for the newest ones because there’s nothing much to tell until 2-3 yrs go by.

Here’s who I would have chosen in 2009, and then after that, scorecards on previous years.

3-68) DE Michael Johnson, 6067 266 4.75, Ga Tech

3-99) OT Gerald Cadogan, 6051 309 5.12, Penn St

4-105) WR Louis Murphy, 6023 203 4.43, Florida

4-119) LB Marcus Freeman, 6005 239 4.74, Ohio St

5-140) DT Chris Baker, 6020 325 5.03, Hampton

5-154) WR Kevin Olgetree, 6004 196 4.45, Virginia

6-190) G Trevor Canfield, 6044 307 5.30, Cincinnati

7-246) FS CJ=2 0Spillman, 6000 197 4.50, Marshall

7-251) FB Brennan Southerland, 6000 242 4.68, Georgia

That’s an utterly unprecedented 6 of my 9 selections that went undrafted. I could end up looking very good or very foolish, as a result. Unfortunately, as I’ve noted before, success is partly a function of opportunity, and UDFAs rarely get much opportunity. When my picks that went undrafted get dumped, I’m going to be left wondering whether they could have cut it if a GM had selected and been invested in them, or if I just plain whiffed.

2007 Draft, Angelo vs Me

TE Greg Olsen(31) vs TE Greg Olsen(31)

Draw

HB Garrett Wolfe(93) vs HB Antonio Pittman(93)

Both are backups with few carries

Draw

G/C Josh Beekman(130) vs G/T Allen Barbre(94)

Beekman started 1 season, but will have a tough time doing so again. Barbre a backup.

Slight Advantage - Angelo

LB Michael Okwo(94) vs LB Antwan Barnes(130)

Okwo hasn’t made a roster yet, Barnes is a backup.

Slight Advantage - Me

DB Corey Graham(168) vs CB Marcus McCauley(62)

Both backups with good upside

Very Slight Advantage - Angelo

SS Kevin Payne(167)=2 0vs RB Jackie Battle(168)

Payne was passable as a starter and will compete to keep the spot. Battle a backup.

Slight/Solid Advantage - Angelo

CB Trumaine McBride(221) vs WR Dallas Baker(221)

McBride overrated after injuries forced him into the lineup in 07 – may not make the team at all this year. Baker a backup.

Very Slight Advantage - Angelo

DE Dan Bazuin(62) vs DB Rod Rogers(241)

Bazuin never took a snap. Rogers struggling to stay in the league.

Very Slight Advantage – Me

OT Aaron Brandt(241) vs OT Jacob Bender(167)

Brandt never took a snap. Bender struggling to stay in the league.

Very Slight Advantage - Me

Needs Addressing:

Pretty similar, and the contributions haven’t even been good enough for it to matter much.

Draw

Leader

=0 A

Not a single quality starter out of either bunch yet. Graham and Payne are poised, though, so if Barbre or McCauley don’t break through soon, I’m in trouble.

Very Slight Advantage - Angelo

2006 Draft

I didn’t make my picks this year.

2005 Draft, Angelo vs Me

HB Cedric Benson(4) vs DB Antrel Rolle(4)/CB Carlos Rogers(9)*

R/R have had some injuries, but started and contributed plenty in their 3 seasons. The biggest problem with this was that we already had a good starting HB, and this pick didn’t improve the team (especially when you figure in 5M/yr in dead cap space sitting on the sidelines for most of 3 yrs). And now we had to burn a high R2, because 3 yrs later, no one has any confidence in Benson. Also, having a corner here would have prevented us from wasting a R3 on RMJ.

* I wanted to just pass until one CB went, then take the other (to save enormous amounts of $)

Solid Advantage - Me

WR Mark Bradley(39) vs OT Khalif Barnes(39)

Bradley flashes promise in occasional bursts, Barnes has been 4 yr starter at LT.

Solid Advantage - Me

WR Airese Currie(140) vs QB Adrian McPherson(140)

Both went nowhere, with injuries playing a role.

Draw

QB Kyle Orton(106) vs HB Marion Barber(106)

Barber was a Pro Bowl stud in a shared starting job, but underwhelmed in his first season all to himself. Orton has evolved into a slightly below average starter. Drafting Barber here would have saved us the waste of taking Benson at 5.

Draw

SS Chris Harris(181) vs SS Brandon Browner(220)

Browner broke his arm in 2005, and finding no NFL takers in 2006, went on to become a hit in the CFL. This is a good example of one way I’m at a disadvantage in this game – Angelo’s late picks get serious chances to make a roster, whereas my late picks sometimes go undrafted and don’t get the same opportunities.

Harris had a breakout 3^rd season starting at SS in Carolina, after we traded him away.

Solid Advantage - Angelo

LB Rod Wilson(220) vs LB Ernest Shazor(181)

Wilson was a special teamer for 2.5 yrs, Shazor is out of football.

Very Slight Advantage – Angelo

Needs Addressing:

Orton was a big help in 2005, but an extra starting OT sure would have been nice in recent years, too. Also, I got DB covered here. Taking a HB in the top 5 when we already had a good starter was just a disastrous idea, no matter what Benson became (which isn’t good).

Slight Advantage – Me

Leader

Slight Advantage - Me

2004 Draft, Angelo vs Me

DT Tommie Harris(14) vs DT Vince Wilfork(14)

Wilfork is a mainstay for the Pats. Harris has gotten by on his rep for 2 yrs now.

Slight Advantage: Me

DT Tank Johnson(47) vs LB Dontarius Thomas(47)

Both look like career backups.

Draw

WR Bernard Berrian(78) vs DE Isaac Hilton(78)

Berrian has grown into a solid starter, Hilton becomes my highest bust ever.

Big Advantage: Angelo

CB Nathan Vasher(110) AND DE Claude Harriot(147) vs WR Samie Parker(104)

I refused a mid-draft trade here. Harriot was a complete washout. Vasher and Parker have both started half the time and are both at a major crossroads.

Slight Advantage: Angelo

LB Leon Joe (112) vs T/G Stacey Andrews(112)

Joe logged 5 yrs as a special teams fringe player. Andrews was a top backup before sliding inside to become a starter.

Solid Advantage: Me

QB Craig Krenzel(148) vs HB Ran Carthon(148)

Both were fringe players for a couple years and are gone.

Draw

CB Alfonso Marshall(215) vs CB Roc Alexander(215)

Marshall hung on briefly, Alexander got off to a great start in Denver, but vanished.

Draw

Needs Addressing:
Draw

Overall Leader

Slight Advantage: Angelo

2003 Draft, Angelo vs Me

QB Rex Grossman(22) vs QB Kyle Boller(14)

Career ratings: G – 70.2 and falling, B - 71.9 and rising. Boller found a new #2 job with no trouble, Grossman will probably hang on as a #3.

Slight Advantage: Me

CB Charles Tillman(35) vs LG Eric Steinbach(22)

Tillman is a great starting corner, Steinbach is an elite starting guard, with the potential to move to LT. Given that CB is a more valuable position, let’s call this one a wash.

Draw

DE Michael Haynes(14) vs DE Chris Kelsay(35)

Kelsay is a decent starter, Haynes was a total washout.

Solid Advantage: Me

LB Lance Briggs(68) vs HB Onterio Smith(68)

Briggs is an overrated, but still good starter. Smith started well, but screwed himself (and me) with his character problems.

Solid/Big Advantage: Angelo

S Todd Johnson(100) vs CB Ivan (Ike) Taylor(100)

Johnson is a career backup, Taylor is a quality starter.

Solid Advantage: Me

WR Justin Gage(143) vs WR Justin Gage(116)

Draw

DT Ian Scott(116) vs DT Antonio Garay(139)

Scott is a solid backup, Garay was20in the league for 4-5 years.

Slight/Solid Advantage: Angelo

DT Tron LaFavor(171) vs DT James Lee(143)

Both hung on the fringes briefly

Draw

LB Joe Odom(191) vs LB Scott Shanle(171)

Shanle has grown into a starter, Odom was a backup for a couple seasons.

Solid Advantage: Me

WR Bobby Wade(139) vs WR Ryan Hoag(261)

Hoag still shows up in camps, Wade is mystifyingly getting starts lately.

Solid Advantage: Angelo

HB Brock Forsey(206) vs SS Siddeeq Shabazz(191)

Both are out of the league

Draw

G Bryan Anderson(261) vs T Scott Kooistra(206)

Anderson is long gone, Kooistra is a career backup in Cincy

Slight Advantage: Me

Needs Addressing

Draw

Overall Leader

Very Slight Advantage: Me

2002 Draft, Angelo vs Me

I came out a little ahead

2001, Me vs Hatley

I won in an underwhelming first effort for me and last for him.

Coming In July

Some roster analysis and perhaps some more draft history analysis.

5/6/09

Fresh Meat

R3 – 68) DT Jarron Gilbert (6052, 288, 4.87, San Jose State)

Not just a YouTube pool-jumper, Gilbert is a high-quality defensive lineman. He started at DE, but got bigger and moved to DT, where he was catching fire, after a brief adjustment. In this system, he projects to the inside. While bigger than the scheme prototype (Tommie Harris), Gilbert uses his long arms to good advantage.

R3 – 99) WR Juaquin Iglesias (6007, 210, 4.56, Oklahoma)

Iglesias is an experienced starter who offers good hands and toughness in traffic, but subpar speed. He’ll be competing with Bennett for work.

R4 – 105) DE Henry Melton (6’4*, 265*, 4.65*, Texas)

Great measurables, but a real project. Started as a HB, converted after 2 seasons, and spent his Jr yr as a backup. Started as a senior, but produced decidedly underwhelming numbers. He’ll make the team, but look for him to be inactive a lot and contribute little if any on defense this year.

R4 – 119) CB D.J. Moore (5087, 192, 4.53, Vanderbilt)

The comparisons to Nathan Vasher are inevitable. Both were regarded as possible 1^st round talent, based on very productive college careers. Then they measured out disappointingly small and slow and fell to the 4^th round. Coincidentally, this selection probably means the end of Vas her in Chicago.

R5 – 140) WR Johnny Knox (5114, 185, 4.34, Abilene Christian)

Superfast, with better hands than typical for a speedster, and very productive, although against weak (JUCO and small-school) competition. Very likely to stick for now as a developmental 5^th/6^th receiver.

R5 – 154) LB Marcus Freeman (6005, 239, 4.74, Ohio State)

Even though his workout numbers surprised by being only very slightly above average, Freeman is a great value at this point. Very productive at a major program, Freeman fits best on the weakside and should be a lock to make the team as a backup there, barring any late additions. Has good upside.

R6 – 190) S Al Afalava (5’11*, 207*, 4.48*, Oregon State)

Has played both sides, but primarily on the strong side. He hits hard, and, regardless of the worrisome team comment that they think he has the tools to play either position, he projects better to SS. Might have as high as even odds at making the Opening Day roster.

R7 – 246) G/TE Lance Louis (6’2* 303* 4.78*, San Diego State)

A former TE who grew out of the position halfway through college, Louis turned heads with phenomenal speed for a 300 pounder. Mixed signals are coming out about whether they intend to keep him at guard or shrink him back down for TE.

R7 – 251) WR Derek Kinder (6 0* 202*, 4.52*, Pittsburgh)

Was developing nicely until a torn ACL wiped out all of 2007 and probably hindered him somewhat in 08. A pure flanker who has a slim chance at sticking as a 6^th receiver, but will probably be fighting for a PS job. Three slow possession receivers at once is too many.

UDFAs

LB Mike Rivera (6’2*, 245*, 4.65*, Kansas)

LB Kevin Malast (6’0*, 236*, 4.63*, Rutgers)

WR Eric Peterman (6’0*, 200* , 4.49*, Northwestern)

HB Tyrell Fenroy (5’9*, 200*, 4.51*, Louisiana-Lafayette)

S Dahna Deleston (6’0*, 212*, 4.52*, UConn)

CB Woodny Turenne (5’11*, 183*, 4.52*, Louisville)

FB Will Ta’ufo’ou (5’11*, 253*, 4.85*, California)

C/G Dennis Conley (6’2*, 305*, 5.34*, Hampton)

G Johan Asiata (6’4*, 312*, ?, UNLV)

Of the undrafteds, only Rivera was given any kind of chance at all to be selected. As a group, they have surprisingly good measurables, though, which is a departure from past years.

DB Derek Pegues (5095 199 4.56, Miss St) was the most notable name amongst those granted minicamp only tryouts.

*less reliable non-Combine data

Draft Recap and Analysis

When 49 rolled around, although Delmas, Barwin, Nicks, Britt, and Rob iskie had been plucked, Michael Johnson, Rashad Johnson, and Sherrod Martin all remained. Angelo passed on these 3 and traded down to 68 for an extra 4^th. Since none of those three were likely to last until 68, but many WRs would be available, it seemed clear that’s what he was fixated on.

Surprisingly, Johnson and Johnson were both still on the board when 68 came up, and both were great value by this time. Not only did the Bears not go that way, but they didn’t go receiver, either – they went DT (which you may recall I mentioned as a dark horse early selection possibility to keep an eye on in last month’s column). Never start a land war in Asia, never spit into the wind, and never discount the possibility of a DT in a Lovie/Angelo draft.

By 99 FS was picked clean, but Sidbury was still out at DE, which was the only serious non-WR consideration I could see. However, WR Juaquin Iglesias it was.

Soon after came the extra 4^th (105). With WR checked off and FS empty, surely this would be a DE. And it was – however, not the one expected. Instead of Sidbury (a very fast edge rusher with great numbers in a small program) Angelo opted for Melton (a very fast edge rusher with poor numbers in a big program). Considering most observers rated Sidbury as a high R3 and Melton a 5 at the earliest, this is sticking their necks out.

After that, the only obvious need left was LB. Since you can find an abundance of them in R4-5 (and sometimes even 6) and we had many picks coming up in that range, no urgency existed, and we were mostly free to contemplate Best Player Available from here on out.

At 119, CB DJ Moore definitely fit that profile. At 140 the Bears picked up Johnny Knox, another solid WR prospect from a deep WR draft, touching off a mini-run of 4 receivers in 9 picks.

By now, LB was looming important. Not that we need a starter quality LB for this year, but if you’re going to get a LB (which we clearly were), and you’ve got the opportunity to get one with a mid-round pick (which we did), you ought to get one before the big dropoff in talent (which in most years is very roughly around 150). And that’s exactly what Angelo did, landing an excellent value in Marcus Freeman at 154.

Because 190 was the last chance to do it, the next pick should have been visible from a mile away – the annual R4-6 SS. While I was guessing Curtis Taylor, the Bears went off of most drafniks’ radar with Al Afalava, on the heels of his unexpectedly impressive Pro Day.

For their ‘almost Mr Irrelevant’ picks to close the draft, Angelo took one guy with a freakish 40 and one coming off an injury, who was previously more highly regarded – both the right kind of gambles to make in late rounds.

The value on each individual player take n was reasonably good. Four of the top six selected were 15-30 places later than I had them rated. Freeman was taken a lot later than he was on my board. Only Melton came significantly earlier than I (and all amateur pundits) had him figured for. Angelo traded away picks (getting an upgrade at the most important position) and still ended up adding 9 players, probably 6 of whom will make the roster. He also concentrated most of his picks in the middle rounds, where he is usually at his most effective.

As usual, the biggest complaint I have is how the picks related to our current roster.

Early in his tenure, Angelo became notorious for neglecting the OL, particularly OT. Now FS is threatening to join in the infamy. The position has been a wreck for 5 (probably soon to be 6) years straight, with only one serious (and failed) attempt to fix it.

DE – 1 of the 3 key needs for 2009 – got addressed, but with a player who probably won’t be able to contribute for quite some time to a team that’s ready to contend now.

We also made some selections at places that are very crowded. Whenever you make a pick, the question isn’t ‘how good are they going to be?’, the correct question is ‘how much better will they make you than if you didn’t have them?’. Take DJ Moore. I like his future fine. But his selection probably means Vasher is out. If Vasher is w ashed up, Moore does improve depth. If Vasher is recovered, we spent a pick to replace a guy with the exact same guy. And at the top, I think Gilbert is a very exciting prospect who could really blossom. Except that we’ve still got a 3^rd round DT from last year with a ton of promise that we haven’t gotten much opportunity for yet. Along with 3^rd rounder Dusty Dvoracek, who isn’t a known quantity yet. Along with ex-2^nd rounder Anthony Adams. Along with Tommie Harris, who they still haven’t made a decision on yet. Point being, DT – in fact, the whole DL – is exceptionally crowded. Selecting Gilbert adds another body vying for playing time from other players who really need playing time and evaluation, too. As it is, most 4-3 teams carry 8 linemen. We’re guaranteed 9 and I have a hard time seeing less than 10, unless they can trump up an injury for Melton. That’s going to squeeze players out of other positions (notably WR, RB, and DB).

Alternative approaches could have been: taking DE at 68, trading up slightly from 49 for Barwin, trading up slightly from 105 for Rashad Johnson, staying at 49 and getting FS or DE.

I can’t make up my mind on how to grade this. We got plenty of things that will help. We also missed some really obvious needs, which is going to hurt. Before the Cutler trade, we had enough ammunition that I was filling all our needs well in mocks. After the trade, we didn’t have nearly as much to work with. So the key factor, I suppose is how much of an upgrade we got out of that deal. If we got a QB who’ll be flirting with the Pro Bowl for the next 8 years, it was worth it. If we got a 15^th – 20^th best in the NFL QB, we’ve been had. For now, I lean hopeful for Cutler, but skeptical as to how we’ll fill the holes we have now and probably will next off-season.

Overall Grade: B

Oh, Yeah

The Bears still don’t have a serious #2 QB on the roster. A FA will have to be brought in, at some point.

First, the creaky old men of age 38-40 (it’s fun to type that, then note that’s exactly where your own age falls):

Gus Frerotte – 38 and played significantly and adequately last last year.

Brad Johnson – 40 and hasn’t played much since 2006.

Trent Green – 38, but pretty seriously concussed, IIRC.

Then the kids in their physical prime:

JP Losman – most experienced here and had a good full season in 2006

Brooks Bollinger – tolerable 2005 with the Jets, his only season of consequence

Tim Rattay – solid career rating, but tiny and not even on a roster in 2008

Charlie Fyre – tolerable 1.5 yrs in CLE, minimal opportunity last 2 seasons

Losman is easily the best available under 35. Of the oldsters, only Frerotte appeals to me. And, after that, the 3^rd best option is…Rex.

Guess who I think our 2009 backup QB will be.

Roster

( ) contain contract years left after the 2009 season. +1 shows RFA and +2 ERFA status after their current contract expires. PUP is the Physically Unable to Perform list, IR for Injured Reserve, and INJ is used for a player hampered by injury, but not on the preceding lists. Bold denotes star players, Underline shows a solid starter, Normal for substandard starters to decent backups, and Italics for poor/raw/ST only players.

In a month or two, I’ll switch to showing all signed players and handicapping their chances to make the team.

Pace(2), Omiyale(3), Kreutz(1), Garza(2), Shaffer(2)

Williams(3), Buenning(FA), Beekman(1)

Reed(PS), Balogh(PS)

Cutler(2), Hanie(2+1)

Hester(4), Bennett(2)
Davis(1), Iglesias<R3>

Knox<R5>, Rideau(ERFA?)

Aromashodu(1), Kinder<R7>

Broussard(PS)

Clark(1), Ols en(2), Davis(2), Louis<R7>

Mines(PS)

Forte(2-INJ), Jones(1), Wolfe(1-IR), Peterson(FA)

McKie(2), Davis(ERFA?)

Ogunleye(FA), Harris(3-INJ), Adams(1), Brown(2)

Idonije(FA), Harrison(2), Dvoracek(FA-IR), Anderson(FA)

Melton<R4>, Gilbert<R3>, Toeaina(FA), Baldwin(2)

Clermond(PS)

Roach(FA), Urlacher(2), Briggs(4)

Hillenmeyer(1-INJ), Williams(FA), Freeman<R5>

LaRocque(3)

Payne(1), Bullocks(FA)

Earl(FA), Steltz(2)

Afalava<R6>, Bowman(3-IR)

CB
Tillman(4-INJ), Graham(1), Vasher(3-IR), Moore<R4>, DManning(FA), McBride(1), Hamilton(FA)

Burgess(PS)

Mannelly(1)

Gould(4)

Maynard(1)

Manning

Hester

2009 Shopping List

Rank.....Position.....Rounds it could be successfully addressed in.....Comment

1)………..DE…….1-6…………E2Ogun and Anderson both expire after 09. Ogunleye and Anderson have been invisible lately and Ogunleye is 31. With only 1 high pick, may end up just staffing the 4^th slot, rather than drafting Ogun’s heir.

2)……….WR?..….1-4……………. 2 promising, developing youngsters, but utterly atrocious in immediate top-end talent. A veteran is more probable than a rookie.

3)………..FS?....….2-3..…………..Bears are throwing as much as they can at the wall and hoping something sticks here. No individual option is a good bet, though.

4)………..LB..…...4-7…………….. McClover and/or Hillenmeyer could be gone and Williams will probably get offered better than backup money elsewhere next year.

5)………..QB?……4-5……………. Terrible top prospects, but late rounds shaping up to have average or better value. A veteran is more probable than a rookie.

6)………..FB?…….5-7…………….A lot of late picks and not many other places they could make the roster.

2010 Shopping List

Rank.....Position.....Rounds it could be successfully addressed in.....Comment

1)………..FS.....….2-3..…………..Bears are throwing as much as they can at the wall and hoping something sticks here. No individual option is a good bet, though.

2)………..DE……..2-3……………Ogun, Idonije, and Anderson all expire after 09. Ogunleye and Anderson have been invisible lately and Ogunleye will be 32.

3) ………..G..….…3-6…………… Minimal depth. Buenning a FA.

4)………..LB..…....4-7.…………..Williams and Roach are free agents

5)………..FB?…….5-7……………Could be improved and wouldn’t cost much to do it.

We’re in a situation where we’re liable to badly need starting DE and FS, both of those rarely last past mid-R2, and without our R1 we’ll be lucky to be able to draft one of those, much less both.

Mailbag

Feel free to write me (click blue name in the upper right) with your questions. On the down side, I don’t have access to some of the great stats they do on the official team site. Also, I’m mighty busy, and I hope you’ll be patient if it takes me a while to reply. But, on the flip side, I do eventually reply to most questions. And, unlike the team site, I’m not constrained by having to toe the company line in my replies.< /div>

Coming Soon

Plenty of off-season talk. The Cutler trade, past drafts, jobs up for grabs…

4/22/09

The Big Board

Roughly 300 of the finest young athletes the colleges have to offer. 256 players assigned to rounds 1-7.

<Draft Boards>

Positions are where I feel they fit best as a pro. () are other possibilities.

[RT] indicates tackles only suitable for the right side

I used [FL], [SE], [SL] to help sort all the different WRs. Flanker denotes a larger, slow, possession receiver, SE a taller, fast, explosive type, and slot for the little (mostly fast, but not all, once you reach the late rounds) guys. That’s not at all to suggest that they’re limited to that position, or even that that’s their likely position - it’s merely a way to help identify different physical types out of a large group. I could have called them type A, B, and C, but this is easier to remember.

h-Bs are tweeners somewhere inbetween WR/TE. They have ball skills, and you throw to them, but the lack the speed and size to be an every down player at either spot.

[SS] denotes safeties that are either big and big hitters, or too slow to play FS well, or both. Sometimes you’ll find a slow guy at FS out of necessity, but it rarely works well. Mike Brown is the only exception I can think of, and that was only before injuries slowed him some more.

At LB, S/M/W are 4-3 Strong/Middle/Weak=2 0slots, O/I are 3-4 Inside/Outside positions.

On DL, E suggests a player suited to 3-4 DE, and NT are the space-eaters.

* shows wildcard players whose slot/value is especially hard to forecast, due to injury concerns, position uncertainty, character issues, high measurable but minimal experience, etc.

+s indicate players I like more than most, who probably won’t go as high as I list them.

Conversely, -s are for players I think aren’t all they’re cracked up to be – meaning they will probably go higher than I list them, but I wouldn’t do it.

Caught Looking

http://blogs.suntimes.com/bears/2009/04/unofficial_list_of_pre-draft_v.html

These are players the Bears have shown interest in.

2009 Shopping List

Our picks are now 2-49, 3-99, 4-119, 5-140, 5-154, 6-190, 7-246, 7-251

Rank.....Position.....Rounds it could be successfully addressed in.....Comment

1)……….WR....….2-4……………. 2 promising, developing youngsters, but utterly atrocious in immediate top-end talent.

2)………..DE?…….2-6……………Ogun and Anderson both ex pire after 09. Ogunleye and Anderson have been invisible lately and Ogunleye is 31. With only 1 high pick, may end up just staffing the 4^th slot, rather than drafting Ogun’s heir.

3)………..FS?....….2-3..…………..Bears are throwing as much as they can at the wall and hoping something sticks here. No individual option is a good bet, though.

4)………..LB..…...4-7…………….. McClover and/or Hillenmeyer could be gone and Williams will probably get offered better than backup money elsewhere next year.

5)………..QB?……4-6……………. Terrible top prospects, but late rounds shaping up to have ok value. A veteran (after the draft) is more probable than a rookie.

6)………..FB?…….5-7…………….A lot of late picks and not many other places they could make the roster.

Eye on the Future

Players that fit the Bears’s needs, scheme, and draft slots well. Not a complete ranking of the position.

Louis Delmas, 5113 202 4.53, W Michigan

Was rising steadily, but reputedly poor (12) Wonderlic is a huge surprise and a yellow flag.

Rashad Johnson, 5112 203 4.53, Alabama

Mediocre speed numbe rs. Smart, good leadership.

Sean Smith, 6034 214 4.53, Utah

1yr at WR, 2 at corner, and likely to move again to S. Obviously needs time.

Sherrod Martin, 6010 198 4.52, Troy

A CB/FS tossup. Has visited with the team.

The first 3 may or may not last to 49, but Martin should. After that, there’s no one to count on, and we’ve got plenty of ‘maybe’s already.

Connor Barwin, 6035 256 4.66, Cincinnati

Had a breakout season in first year playing defense.

Larry English, 6021 255 4.85, N Illinois

3 very productive seasons, but will probably have to play in a 3-4

Paul Kruger, 6042 263 4.86, Utah

24, but only 2 yrs experience. Great motor/intangibles, but not great speed/burst.

Lawrence Sidbury, 6023 266 4.64, Richmond

Big Combine elevated him into R3.

Cards don’t seem to be falling well on this. Kruger is the highest one probable to be available at 49 and not good value at that point. Doubtful Sidbury makes it to 99.

Simulated Draft

As always, I did a full 7-round 32 GM draft in April. Unfortunately, we’d already started by the time the Cutler and Pace deals happened, so my early pic ks don’t make sense anymore. But I still like the late selections.

119.Chicago Bears- Mike Wallace, WR, Mississippi
149.Chicago Bears (from Denver)- Tony Fiammetta, FB, Syracuse
154.Chicago Bears- Cornelius Lewis, OG, Tennesee State
190.Chicago Bears- DeAndre Levy, LB, Wisconsin
246.Chicago Bears (compensatory)- Marlon Lucky, RB, Nebraska
251.Chicago Bears (compensatory)- Travis Bright, OG, BYU

Final Thoughts

The Bears have 3 prime needs (WR, DE, FS). In a deep WR class, they could probably get a decent player at 119. But DE and FS are both likely to be completely tapped of starter material by 99. Therefore, we’re probably going to be stuck only hitting 2 of 3. In fact, if they go WR first (which I’m really hoping against) we might see FS and DE both not get serious help. Assuming Sidbury is gone by 99, I think FS in 2, WR in 3-4, and backup DE later may be our best combo.

With McClover not offered a contract (yet, at least), they will definitely be looking hard at LB. Possibly depth, possibly a challenger for the SLB job. Too many possibilities to delve into, although I like Wisconsin’s DeAndre Levy.

A stunner pick could be a DT if they’ve lost faith in Harris and/or Dvoracek, who both underwhelmed last season.

Similarly, Vasher’s stock is falling ha rd, but I don’t think they have enough early picks in 09, so I think they will have to give him one more try to get back on the horse, rather than go CB now.

The OL is pretty full, but they only have 8, where most teams keep 9. So they could add a player for the roster, or a late player to replace a current PSer.

A late safety would be a waste, as we already have a smorgasbord of mediocrity, but Angelo almost always goes that way, so it won’t be a surprise.

TE is totally full. K and LS are locked. Maynard is getting up in years, but has shown no dropoff yet, so P isn’t likely. With Jones re-signed, HB is (overly) full.

A #2 QB is a dark horse possibility. Very quietly, a number of the best options have gone. After Losman (who might be seeking better odds of starting than behind Cutler), there’s just a couple fading geezers and a few youngsters that are about the same quality as Grossman (in fact, I’d set the odds of him coming back around only 2-1 against!).

Even though the FB isn’t too important here, they could easily get their top choice of FB with a R5 pick, who could make the roster at worst, and maybe unseat McKie and improve the position before long.

Coming Soon

Post-draft analysis

4/4/09

The Big Board

256+ of the finest young athletes the colleges have to offer.

It’s a little rough on the late end right now, as real life has interfered a lot.

Most Pro Day results haven’t been taken into account yet.

Normally, I would have at least one update before the draft and hope to find time this year.

Draft Boards: Offense / Defense

Positions are where I feel they fit best as a pro. () are other possibilities.

[RT] indicates tackles only suitable for the right side

h-Bs are tweeners somewhere in-between WR/TE. They have ball skills, and you throw to them, but the lack the speed and/or size to be an every down player at either spot.

[SS] denotes safeties that are either big and big hitters, or too slow to play FS well, or bo th. Sometimes you’ll find a slow guy at FS out of necessity, but it rarely works well. Mike Brown is the only exception I can think of, and that was only before injuries slowed him some more.

At LB, S/M/W are 4-3 Strong/Middle/Weak slots, O/I are 3-4 Inside/Outside positions.

On DL, E suggests a player suited to 3-4 DE, and NT are the space-eaters.

* shows wildcard players whose slot/value is especially hard to forecast, due to injury concerns, position uncertainty, character issues, high measurable but minimal experience, etc.

+s indicate players I like more than most, who probably won’t go as high as I list them.

Conversely, -s are for players I think aren’t all they’re cracked up to be – meaning they will probably go higher than I list them, but I wouldn’t do it.

Old Bear Reality

Angelo claimed not to be very interested in big free agents, including any QB that would compete for the QB job - and he’s stuck by it, although, there’s hardly anyone to sign anymore, anyway. Teams have mastered free agency and cap management and very few worthwhile players hit the market these days. He has, however, chased a lot of cheap, young player with upside. This is Angelo’s usual MO and his forte – scouring the league for overlooked vets with something to offer.

The first signing was young T/G Frank Omiyale. Fair measurables, ex-5^th rounder, 4 yrs in the league, 1 fill-in start. Obviously not anyone to get excited about, but some young depth with a little experience and upside. At first he seemed a clear replacement for St Clair, but more recent comments suggest they’d rather start him at LG if at all possible.

Metcalf got cut as a result of Omiyale’s arrival, which should be a big tip-off where they want to use him.

After a small bidding war, St Clair signed with Cleveland, however, leaving Omiyale as the only choice at RT, at least for the time being.

Josh Bullocks was added at FS with a cheap 1 yr trial deal. It’s decent insurance against getting shut out in the draft or getting a rookie who isn’t ready on Day One. As long as it isn’t an excuse to ignore FS in the draft and be satisfied with Bullocks/Steltz, it’s a nice pickup.

Glen Earl, a former starting SS with Texas, whose been out of action for 2 yrs, following a Lisfranc (foot) injury was also added to a cheap 1 yr deal. McGowan and Worrell, therefore, are unlikely to receive any new offers from Chicago.

Bowman has also been working at FS in mini-camp, and the move will probably last at least for the season. I’ve speculated for a while that Tillman, Graham, or Bowman might be moved, given the logjam at CB and the dearth of talent at FS. It’s a worthwhile experiment. As inexperience d as Bowman is (he spent most of college hurt), he has a lot to learn wherever you play him, so in that sense, he’s the ‘easiest’ move.

It’s unclear whether nickel back Manning is being considered more of a S or CB at this time, but it will definitely have ramifications for some bubble players, and may impact draft decisions, too.

Finally, in a virtual swap, Kevin Shaffer, the Cleveland RT whose job was taken by John St Clair, is coming to Chicago on a 3 yr deal. This gives us some desperately needed T help, and means Omiyale should play at G, unless Williams experiences further back problems.

New Bear Reality

After adding Jay Cutler and Orlando Pace (with a WR likely to follow), while losing a lot of draft picks, everything for the Bears has turned upside down.

An aging team that needed to rebuild with lots of picks is now a runaway division favorite with little ammunition to plan for the future and not much immediate need for it, either.

I’ll cover this blockbuster development more thoroughly next time.

Consolation Prizes

In exchange for losing Berrian, Ayanbadejo, and Gilmore the Bears picked up a compensatory 3^rd and 2 7ths. Not as good as what we lost, but a lot better than nothing, and certainly a big help.

Roster

0A

( ) contain contract years left. +1 shows RFA and +2 ERFA status after their current contract expires. PUP is the Physically Unable to Perform list, IR for Injured Reserve, and INJ is used for a player hampered by injury, but not on the preceding lists. Bold denotes star players, Underline shows a solid starter, Normal for substandard starters to decent backups, and Italics for poor/raw/ST only players.

Pace(3), Omiyale(4), Kreutz(2), Garza(3), Shaffer(3)

Williams(4), Buenning(1), Beekman(2)

Reed(PS), Balogh(PS)

Cutler(3), Grossman(FA), Hanie(2+1)

Hester(5), Bennett(3)

Rideau(1+2?), Davis(2)

Aromashodu(2)

Broussard(PS)

Clark(2), Olsen(3), Davis(3)

Mines(PS)

Forte(3-INJ), Jones(2), Wolfe(2-IR), Peterson(1)

McKie(3), Davis(1+2?)

Ogunleye(1), Harris(4-INJ), Adams(2), Brown(3)

Anderson(1), Dvoracek(1-IR), Idonije(1), Harrison(3), Toeaina(1), Baldwin(3)

Clermond(PS)

Roach(1?), Urlacher(3), Briggs(5)

Hillenmeyer(2-INJ), Williams(1), McClover(FA-IR), LaRocque(3)

Payne(2), Bullocks(1)

Earl(1), Steltz(3)

Bowman(3-IR)

CB
Tillman(5-INJ), Graham(2), Vasher(4-IR), DManning(1), McBride(2), Hamilton(1)

Burgess(PS)

Mannelly(2)

Gould(5)

Maynard(2)

Manning

Hester

2009 Shopping List

Our picks are now 2-49, 3-99, 4-119, 5-140, 5-154, 6-190, 7-246, 7-251

Rank....Position...Rounds it could be successfully addressed in.....Comment

1)………..DE…….1-6……………Ogun and Anderson both expire after 09. Ogunleye and Anderson have been invisible lately and Ogunleye is 31. With only 1 high pick, may end up just staffing the 4^th slot, rather than drafting Ogun’s heir.

2)……….WR?..….1-4……………. 2 promising, developing youngsters, but utterly atrocious in immediate top-end talent. A veteran is more probable than a rookie.

3)………..FS?....…2-3..…………..Bears are throwing as much as they can at the wall and hoping something st icks here. No individual option is a good bet, though.

4)………..LB..…...4-7…………….. McClover and/or Hillenmeyer could be gone and Williams will probably get offered better than backup money elsewhere next year.

5)………..QB?……4-5……………. Terrible top prospects, but late rounds shaping up to have average or better value. A veteran is more probable than a rookie.

6)………..FB?…….5-7…………….A lot of late picks and not many other places they could make the roster.

Eye on the Future

Players that fit the Bears’ needs, scheme, and draft slots well. Not a complete ranking of the position.

Louis Delmas, 5113 202 4.53, W Michigan

Was rising steadily, but poor (12) Wonderlic is a huge surprise and a yellow flag.

Rashad Johnson, 5112 203 4.53, Alabama

Mediocre speed numbers. Smart, good leadership.

Sean Smith, 6034 214 4.53, Utah

1yr at WR, 2 at corner, and likely to move again to S. Obviously needs time.

Jarius Byrd, 5101 207 DNP, Oregon

Coin flip on CB vs FS. Intriguing twist is that his father would be coaching him (Gill Byrd is a Bear DB asst) .

Sherrod Martin, 601 0 198 4.52, Troy

Another CB/FS tossup.

The first 3 are each iffy to make 49. The last 2 should, but aren’t great value there and doubtful to last to 99.

Connor Barwin, 6035 256 4.66, Cincinnati

Had a breakout season in first year playing defense

Larry English, 6021 255 4.85, N Illinois

3 very productive seasons, but will probably have to play in a 3-4

Robert Ayers, 6031 272 4.80, Tenn

Fair prospect has mysteriously transformed into the most overrated player in the draft

Paul Kruger, 6042 263 4.86, Utah

24, but only 2 yrs experience

Lawrence Sidbury, 6023 266 4.64, Richmond

Big Combine’s going to get him a lot of second looks

Cards don’t seem to be falling well on this. Kruger is the only one likely to be available at 49 and iffy value at that point. Doubtful Sidburry makes it to 99.

3/6/09

Turnover

Some of those key personnel departures I was just saying would be happening soon have begun.

Marty Booker was dumped and Brandon Lloyd won’t be getting any phone calls from the Bears.

Not surprising or sad. But that makes all 4 starting receivers from the last 2 years that kept young guys from getting reps, then wound up out the door. Terrible roster management. (Although, encouragingly, Angelo recently sounded as if he may not give the coaches any potential veteran starters, forcing them to rely on developing the youngsters.)

The Bears announced they wouldn’t offer Mike Brown a contract.

John Tait decided to retire.

Surprising timing, given that all indications are the Bears intended to try and squeeze one last run out of this group. You’d think Tait would stick it out for the last hurrah. It would be interesting to know if he declined because he’s just breaking down that much, or because he doesn’t believe this team can be a serious contender and there’s no point to hanging on another year or two.

With these kind of losses, it’s clearly a season that should be considered a rebuilder with an eye on developing young talent with a future. I think maybe Angelo is coming around to my way of thinking on this.

Free Agency

Angelo claimed not to be very interested in big free agents, including any QB that would compete for the QB job. It should be noted he also said that right before signing big free agents in 2005. However, there’s hardly anyone to sign anymore, anyway. Teams have mastered free agency and cap management and very few worthwhile players hit the market these days.

The first (and possibly last) signing was young T/G Frank Omiyale. Fair measurables, ex-5^th rounder, 4 yrs in the league, 1 fill-in start. Obviously not anyone to get excited about, but some young depth with a little experience and upside. At first he seemed a clear replacement for St Clair, but more recent comments suggest they’d rather start him at LG and get St Clair to come down in price and return at T.

Grizzled Old Bears

While wandering around online, I discovered that there’s a lot of ex-Bears still involved in Chicago professional football.

The Sears Centre is home to the Chicago Slaughter (CIFL), coached by Bear great Steve McMichael. Other staffers include: William Perry, Jim McMahon, Otis Wilson, Emery Moorehead, Ron Cox, and Mickey Pruitt.
Either CIFL players are assigned by college location, the scouts are really lazy, the scouting travel budget is very limited, or they’re trying to sell tickets with familiar faces, but the roster is loaded with local playe rs.

http://www.chicagoslaughter.com/

And, just down I-90 a ways is the Chicago Rush (AFL) – still helmed by ‘Spare Bear’ Mike Hohensee and with their new kicker, Paul Edinger.

http://www.chicagorush.com/

(league temporarily suspended – may return)

Roster

Williams(4), Omiyale(4), Kreutz(2), Garza(3), St Clair(FA)

Buenning(1), Beekman(2), Metcalf(3), Miller(FA-IR)

Reed(PS), Balogh(PS)

Orton(1), Grossman(FA), Hanie(2+1)

Hester(5), Bennett(3)

Rideau(1+2?), Davis(2)

Aromashodu(2)

Broussard(PS)

Clark(2), Olsen(3), Davis(3)

=0 A

Mines(PS)

Forte(3-INJ), Jones(FA), Peterson(1)

Wolfe(2-IR)

McKie(3), Davis(1+2?)

Ogunleye(1), Harris(4-INJ), Adams(2), Brown(3)

Anderson(1), Dvoracek(1-IR), Idonije(1), Harrison(3), Toeaina(1), Baldwin(3)

Clermond(PS)

Roach(ERFA), Urlacher(3), Briggs(5)

Hillenmeyer(2-INJ), Williams(1), McClover(FA-IR), LaRocque(3)

Payne(2), Steltz(3)

McGowan(FA-IR), DManning(1)

Worrell(FA)

CB
Tillman(5-INJ), Graham(2), Vasher(4-IR), Bowman(3-IR), McBride(2), Hamilton(ERFA)

Burgess(PS)

Mannelly(2)

Gould(5)

Maynard(2)

Manning

Hester

2009 Shopping List

Our early picks should be roughly 18, 49, 85, and probably an early compensatory pick (97-100ish?) for Berrian.

Our FA position is discussed further down, in the Mailbag.

Rank.....Position.....Rounds it could be successfully addressed in.....Comm ent

1)………..FS....….2-3…………….Manning has only 1 yr left, and they prefer him at nickel back. Watching Payne, Steltz, and Manning bumble at FS in 08 really underscores how dire this is.

2)………..OT….…1-3..……….….Williams has a potentially serious injury concern, Omiyale is ordinary athletically with 1 career start. St Clair (if even back) is old and subpar.

3)………..DE…….1-4……………Ogun, Idonije, and Anderson all expire after 09. Ogunleye and Anderson have been invisible, they want Idonije to do ST and rotational DT. Ogunleye 31.

4)……….WR?……1-3……………. 2 promising, developing youngsters, but utterly atrocious in immediate top-end talent.

5)……….HB?…….2-5…………….None of the backups has contributed anything with the ball. Forte getting seriously overworked.

6)………..QB?……1-7……………. Terrible top prospects, but late rounds shaping up to have interesting value. Since they like Hanie, signs are pointing more to veteran backup.

7)………..G?……...2-3…….……...Decent depth now, but very lacking in top-end talent

8)………..LB?.…...5-7E2…………..Roach, McClover, and/or Hillenmeyer could be gone. Even though each is likely to be back, Bears love PS LBs to groom for future ST duty.

In spite of having a winning record, there’re almost no young building blocks, almost no difference-makers, and almost no position groups that are off-limits for this aging bunch with the arrow pointing down.

Eye on the Future

Players that fit the Bears’s needs, scheme, and draft slots well. Not a complete ranking of the position.

Eben Britton, 6060 309 5.16, Arizona(Jr)

Michael Oher, 6044 309 5.19, Ole Miss

Overhyped, risky, and small.

William Beatty, 6060 307 5.12, Connecticut

Finesse LT might need a little time

Andre Smith, 6040 332 DNP, Alabama(Jr)

Came in at a decent weight, but chickened out of working out, and left without telling anyone.

Phil Loadholt, 6076 332 5.45, Oklahoma

RT only. Long arms.

Troy Kropog, 6053 309 5.22, Tulane

Small school project with LT athleticism. Mixed reviews.

Jamon Meredith, 6045 304 5.03, South Carolina

Borderline tackle size, but plenty else to like.

Fenuki Tupou, 6053 314 5.30, Oregon< /div>

Pro RT. Powerful.

Lydon Murtha, 6070 306 4.89, Nebraska
People are rushing back to check his tapes again, after the kind of Combine many players would sell their soul for. Will need development time, but the upside is sizable.

A good year for OT. I’ll probably be adding more to the watchlist and I’ll pitch a tantrum if we don’t get one.

Rashad Johnson, 5112 203 4.53, Alabama

Smart, good leadership

Louis Delmas, 5113 202 4.53, W Michigan

Good intangibles, mediocre measurables

William Moore, 6’0 221 4.53, Missouri

Very unclear what position he fits well – if any. Needs to drop some weight to play pro FS.

Patrick Chung, 5112 212 4.54, Oregon

Good intangibles, mediocre measurables

Chris Clemmons, 6001 208 4.41, Clemson

Great combine should jump him into middle rounds

Weak year for FS

Michael Johnson, 6067 266 4.75, Ga Tech
Good measurables, but production lags a bit. Unbelievably passed on the Senior Bowl, despite not
being an elite prospect.

Connor Barwin, 6035 256 4.66, Cincinnati

A breakout season in first year playing defense< /div>

Larry English, 6021 255 4.85, N Illinois

3 very productive seasons, but will probably have to play in a 3-4

Robert Ayers, 6031 272 4.80, Tenn

Solid measurables, but overrated after the Senior Bowl

Paul Kruger, 6042 263 4.86, Utah

24, but only 2 yrs experience as a DE

Lawrence Sidbury, 6023 266 4.64, Richmond

Big Combine’s going to get him a lot of second looks

Mailbag

Feel free to write me (click blue name in the upper right) with your questions. On the down side, I don’t have access to some of the great stats they do on the official team site. Also, I’m mighty busy, and I hope you’ll be patient if it takes me a while to reply. But, on the flip side, I do eventually reply to most questions. And, unlike the team site, I’m not constrained by having to toe the company line in my replies.

Dave---Good piece, and I, unfortunately, share your relatively grim assessment of where the team stands: Aging, underperforming lines, essentially no impact players. A couple of questions. 1) I’m curious why you’re optimistic about Bennett. I understand receivers take a while to develop, but it’s hard to think of a good one who, drafted for the position, had a rookie year in which he was healthy but essentially never20saw the field (never made a catch, anyway). You could see that if he were trying to break into a talented, veteran group, but that’s hardly the Bears’ situation. I never saw him play in college, but he looks oddly shaped and, in any event, is too close to Hester in size to be a great complement. I hope you’re right and that he’ll develop, but I don’t see the reasons for optimism. 2) Staying with receivers, I suspect you also have a higher opinion of Olsen than I do. He’s competent as a receiver but not even adequate as a blocker. I assume what makes a tight end special is the ability to block, and force the defense to play run, while being able to get free of the run supporting linebacker or safety that must cover him. Olsen doesn’t present that dilemma, since while he can get free of a linebacker, his deficiencies as a blocker allow the defense to substitute a non-run supporting DB. Minnesota said this explicitly, after it changed to nickel coverage in their second game against the Bears. While he still gets catches, he’s very containable when so covered. I’ll note that Greg Cosell, far and away the best of the mass media analysts, wrote early on that Olsen didn’t play as fast as he timed. 3) Finally, I hope, as you continue with draft coverage, that you keep the spotlight on Angelo and his, in my opinion, miserable record as a talent evaluator. It would be interesting to compare his record with high round picks with that of the league at large. If I’m not mistaken, Angelo’s tenure has produced only one pro bowl quality first round pick (Harris) and only one other long-term starter (Olsen). Outside of Detroit, who’s been worse? There’s a little bad luck in there (Columbo) and the jury’s out on another (Williams---the only one of 6 2008 first round tackles who never started—Go Bears), but mostly it’s busts and poor evaluation (Grossman---Bill Walsh said before that draft that he’d never go near him because of his decision-making; Benson---Cosell early on wrote that he had no lateral agility and couldn’t be a featured back; and Haynes---did anyone like him; note also that they were pissed at the time that they didn’t get Jimmy Kennedy, who went just before Haynes. Polamanu went a couple of picks later). His record in the second and third rounds has produced more contributing players, but it’s still littered with absolute busts (Okwo---never saw the field; Bauzin---ditto; Roosevelt Williams---unfortunately did see the field; Wolfe---maybe a good ST player, but I think that’s it; Bradley---don’t know what happened there). You can’t build a contending team with that many misses at the top, and the maddening thing is that Angelo thinks he so g ood at evaluating talent, and even gets some mass media credit for it.

Dennis R

I liked Bennett reasonably well coming out of college and he was generally pegged a 3^rd, possibly 2^nd round guy. Usually, the fact that he didn’t get on the field while the rest of his position unit looked pathetic, as you noted, would be cause for concern about his ability.

However, with receivers having a long curve and with Bennett coming out as a junior, it’s forgivable if he needed more time. More important, though, is the track record of the coaching staff. Last year, we had a mess at G, for example, yet Beekman remained anchored to the bench. Then, 6 months later, Beekman was their entrenched starter. Also in 2007, when we were eliminated from the playoffs and Moose was about to be cut and Berrian was about to become a highly sought after FA and we had lots of untested WRs on the bench – they stayed untested, leaving us to go into 2008 not knowing what we had. In 2009 our bumbling receivers kept logging the snaps, while Hass and Rideau, as well as Bennett languished, untested. In 2006, Rex’s epic bungling in the second half of the season wasn’t enough to get Griese off the bench. And in 2005, they rode Orton’s unreadiness all the way up to late season when Grossman recovered, never becoming curious if Jeff Blake could outperform a 60 rating in the meantime .. Whether it’s young for old or old for young, whether it’s Lovie’s fault or Turner’s, whether it’s lack of sense or lack of courage or stubbornness – this staff doesn’t like making changes midseason and rides non-performers way too long. Given the way they operate, I won’t be surprised in the slightest if Bennett is the 2009 day one starter and looks good doing it. (Booker’s recent release may be paving the way for this.)

I’m definitely no fan of Greg Olsen as a prototype TE (see season grades), but I do like him as a receiver. 54 catches and 574 yards for a guy who isn’t an every down player (and stuck in a bad offense, to boot) is a very respectable output. However you use him and however defenses play him, he creates mismatches, which is exactly what an offense wants. If he’s the only TE, then you do take a hit on run blocking, but you do get a favorable passing matchup. Better though, are ‘2 TE’ sets, lining Olsen up wide, or putting him in the backfield. In that case, you still get a real TE to block, and then a mismatch against Olsen. LBs have trouble staying with him. DBs can run with him, but are small enough to be out-physicalled by him (on routes or on runs).

I usually use the summer to compare Angelo’s drafting to my own, but squeezing in some other comparisons is a possibility.

Cap

This is courtesy of online poster dabears54. I have not attempted to verify anything, however, it looks reasonable and I suspect it is very accurate. It's becoming largely irrelevant, since the team looks disinterested in spending (which is fine in a rebuilding year, which is what this should be), but nonetheless, here it is.

Estimated Salary cap room left- $29.135 million - rookie cap (est 5.6 mil)

NAME............ base salary.........Signing bonus( unamortized)....Other bonus ...TOTAL.. Contract. year

1 Aromashodu,D $460,0000 -0- -0 $460,000 2010

1. Adams, A $850,000 $250,000 -0- $1,100,000 2010

2.Anderson M $530,000 $39,000 -0- $569,000 2009

3. Baldwin.E $385,000 $30,000 -0- $415,000 2011

4. Beekman J $460,000 $97,500 -0- $557,500 2010

5. Basanez, Brett $385,000 ? -0- $385,000 2010

6.Bennet, E $385,000 $205,000 -0- $590,000 2011

7 Bowman Z $385,000 $73,750 -0- $458,750 2011

8.Briggs, L $1,100,000 $667,000 $5,000,000 $6,767,000 2013

9 .Brown A $745,000 $2,235,000 -0 - $2,980,000 2011

10 .Buenning D $545,000 -0- - 0- $545,000 2009

11.Clark D $1,000,000 $667,000 $475,000 $2,142,000 2010

12.Davis K $385,000 $42,000 -0- $427,000 2011

13.Davis R $765,000 $367,000 $450,000 $1,582,000 2011

14 Dvoracek D $530,000 $187,500 -0- $717,500 2009

15 Forte M $385,000 $382,500 -0- $767,500 2011

16 Garza,R $745,000 $583,000 -0- $1,328,000 2011

17.Gould R $750,000 -0- $2,150,000 $2,900,000 2013

18 Graham C $460,000 $37,5000 -0- $497,500 2010

19 Harrison M $385,000 $172,500 -0- $557,500 2011

20 Hamilton,M $460,000 -0- -0- $460,000 2010

21 Hanie C $385,000 -0- -0- $385,000 2011

22 Harris T $620,000 $1,808,000 $6,670,000 $9,080,000 2012

23 Hester D $555,000 $833,000 $5,250,000 $6,638,000 2013

24 Hillenmayer H $1,500,000 $1,000,000 -0- $2,500,000 2011

25 Idonije I $1,700,000 $400,000 -0- $2,100,000 2009

26. Kruetz O $2,333,000 $3,000,000 -0- $5,333,000 2010

27 Laroque J $385,000 $30,000 -0- $415,000 2011

28. Manelly P $770,000 $93,000 -0- $863,000 2009

29.Manning D $530,000 $400,000 -0- $930,000 2009

30. Maynard B $1,030,000 $360,000 -0- $1,390,000 2009

31 Mcbride T $460,000 $13,750 -0- $473,750 2010

32 Mckie,J $745,000 $250,000 -0- $995,000 2011

33 Metcalf,T $1,000,000 $583,000 -0- $1,583,000 2011

34 Ogunlaye A $4,8000,000 $2,500,000 -0- $7,300,000 2009

35. Olsen G $460,000 $50,000 $100,000 $610,000 2011

36 Orton K* $620,000 $700,000 $1,600,000 $2,920,000 2009

37 Payne K $460,000 $37,500 -0- $497,500 2010

38 Peterson A $745,000 $333,333 -0- $1,078,333 2009

39 Riddeau B $460,000 -0- -0- $460,000 2009

40 Roach N $460,000 -0- --0- $460,000 2010

41 Stelz C $385,000 $111,250 -0- $496,250 2011

42 Tillman C $2,250,000 $2,570,000 -0- 4,820,000 2013

43. Toeaina M $460,000 -0- -0- $460,000 2010

44.Urlacher B $5,950,000 $3,725,000 $50,000 $9,725,000 2011

45 Vasher n $2,950,000 $1,900,000 -0- $4,850,000 2011

46. Williams C $385,000 $100,000 175,000 $660,000 2011

47 Williams J $530,000 $111,250 -0- $641,250 2010

49 Wolfe G $460,000 $155,000 -0- $615,000 2011

[TOTAL SALARY] $92,790,666

Dead cap Hit 2009* $6,675 mill*

LTBE's Not hit $3,000,000

UTBE hit $1,400,000*

Estimated Salary cap( 116.8 X 7%) 127,000,000

CAP SPACE Avaiable $29.135 mill- rookie cap(est. $5.6 mill)

Dead Space:

brian griese- $1,350,000

moose- $1,500,000

benson - $2,575,000

booker- $750,000

tait- $500,0000

total= $6.675 million

UTBE- mike brown $1.4 million

LTBE NOT HIT- rex grossman $1.5million, harris $1.5 million

**The Bears signed offensive linemen Cody Balogh and Tyler Reed, wide receivers John Broussard and Rudy Burgess, tight end Fontel Mines, defensive end Joe Clermond and linebacker Marcus Riley to reserve/ future contracts.

Coming Soon

A giant update later this month – my post-combine full draft board with 256+ slotted players!

1/30/09

Misc

Another possible solution at WR got away – Mike Hass was signed by Seattle. It’s a real shame they didn’t have the sense to evaluate him after we were eliminated in 07 or while Booker and Davis were dropping everything in 08.

As expected, Tillman had reconstructive shoulder surgery as soon as the season ended.

Angelo had an interview where he seems resigned to Urlacher being past his prime. Angelo also sounded smitten by Danieal Manning. He talked like Mike Brown is finally done here, because they want Manning on the field more and the money to give him a medium-sized extension!

Are You In Or Out?

Deciding when your window is, and when to put your resources into trying to win immediately and when to rebuild with an eye down the road is a crucial team evaluation task.

I think if the Bears decide to go all in on 2009, they have a decent shot at doing better than this season - ie, going to the playoffs. But being a serious contender? I think the odds are pretty slim. Reasonable best case, I see them winning about 10, advancing maybe a round into the playoffs, thinking they're really close again, playing for 2010, then watching the wheels fall off (which also has a pretty decent shot of happening in 2009, too).

I said it at the time - and this year wasn't enough of a surprise to chan ge my mind - that the window for this incarnation closed during the 2007 run when Rex washed out, Miller got hurt again, Reuban Brown got hurt again, Mike Brown got hurt again, they decided to dump Moose, Urlacher developed a chronic condition, Daniel Manning was a disaster at FS, they decided they hated RMJ, Berrian was let go, and Okwo, Bazuin, Wolfe, and Benson were all misses.
That's way too many losses to absorb at once without rebuilding for a bit.

They did cut some dead wood and get a tiny bit younger for 2008, but not much. Potential losses within the next 0-2 years of Urlacher, Brown, Tait, Kreutz, St Clair, Clark, Vasher, Harris, Ogunleye is a lot of key personnel to churn through. I have a hard time seeing them bringing in talent so fast that they can replace those losses and get even better.

Given that Lovie is guaranteed at least 2 more years, I think rebuilding is the way to go right now. From interviews, it’s quite clear the key figures are thinking the exact opposite.

WR

Because I’d rather be building this team for the future, I’m not as hell-bent on getting a receiver as many others are. Not that I wouldn’t like some more talent there, but I don’t rank it our top 09 need, just because it was obviously our top 08 deficiency.

Receivers typically have a slow learning curve, and a rookie probably won't be contributing until at least 2010, if not 11. By that time, I'm really not sure how urgent a need WR will be. Hester is finally winning me over, and I think by the end of 09/very beginning of 10 he will be a legit starter. And Bennett was taken in R3 (and I had him slotted late 2), which is a point where you're anticipating a starter quality FL. As for a 3rd receiver - I think Olsen really does/can function as this team's 3rd WR (and does it quite well).
Am I sure Hester and Bennett will pan out? Of course not. But we've got young, high picks at those 2 slots with a solid chance of making it. Before I go stacking more good prospects there than I have positions to play them at, I'd rather work on the positions where I've got nothing lined up.
At DE, what have we got to replace Ogun when he's sent to the glue factory (which, it appears in retrospect, should have already happened a year ago)? Anderson's been playing and been a stink bomb 2 yrs running, as a starter and as a rotational player.
At FS, we've got absolutely, positively no legit immediate players or legit prospects. Nothing at all. (Unless you move Tillman, which I think then creates a serious weakness at CB you have to fill instead.)
And at OT, even supposing Williams is fine now, Tait is old, and St Clair is fairly old and probably leaving in FA, I suspect. Again, nothing young at all there to pin your hopes on.
If we can use our top 3 picks at those 3 positions, then I think we've got either a passable starter and/or legit starter-potential young/developing prospect at every position. Then if Bennett were to look bad in 09, for example, then I'd be after quicker FA help.

Coaching

The fans wanted Babich gone. The players all bit their tongues and carefully said "something has to change", which is code for "I don’t want to be cut, but I hate playing in our defense".

Result?

Everyone was fired, except DC Bob Babich, who gained additional responsibilities.

Really.

DB coach – gone. LB coach – gone. DL coach – gone. (and this isn’t the first position coach housecleaning of the Lovie era, either) Lovie’s best buddy, Babich – still here.

There’s more, though. Another Lovie Buddy, ex-Lion HC, Rod Marinelli, was brought in to work on the defense. Would he become the new DC, with Babich busted back down to LB coach? Of course not. a) that would embarrass Lovie Buddy Number One. b) that would make sense.

What we got instead was Marinelli as Asst HC/DL coach, Babich as DC/LB coach, and Lovie as HC saying that he wants to be ‘more involved’ in the defense, including the play-calling, next season.

So what does that all add up to? Could be a few different meanings –

Babich is essentially relieved of DC duties and Marinelli will really fill that role, no matter what the titles say. This is the best scenario, but least likely, IMO.
Babich is essentially relieved of DC duties and Lovie intends to run the defense himself. Some HCs do call the offensive plays, but I don’t think anyone operates without a true coordinator.
Nothing much really changes. Lovie makes a bit of a show of being more involved, and Babich is somewhat distracted by his new LB duties, but mostly things run as before.
The DC duties are handled by committee, involving Lovie, Marinelli, and Babich. In other words, a giant cluster**** of a management diagram, which should work out about as well as the ‘GM by committee’ approach worked for the Bears, before Angelo’s arrival.

QBs

Charlie Batch, Pittsburgh Steelers
Kyle Boller, Baltimore Ravens
Brooks Bollinger, Dallas Cowboys
Todd Bouman, Baltimore Ravens
David Carr, New York Giants
Kerry Collins, Tennessee Titans
Ryan Fitzpatrick, Cincinnati Bengals
Charlie Frye, Seattle Seahawks
Jeff Garcia, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Gibran Hamdan, Buffalo Bills
Joey Harrington, New Orleans Saints
Byron Leftwich, Pittsburgh Steelers
J.P. Losman, Buffalo Bills
Jamie Martin, San Francisco 49ers
Luke McCown, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Dan Orlovsky, Detroit Lions
J.T. O'Sullivan, San Francisco 49ers
Patrick Ramsey, Denver Broncos
Chris Simms, Tennessee Titans
Brian St. Pierre, Arizona Cardinals
Marques Tuaisosopo, Oakland Raiders
Kurt Warn er, Arizona Cardinals
Anthony Wright, New York Giants

There’s 3 accomplished old men out there (Warner, Garcia, Collins). Those are the guys to pursue if you think there’s still room in the Bear window (which I don’t).

If you’re thinking about rebuilding with Orton and a decent young vet with some upside remaining, there’s at least 10 that fit the bill adequately, and none that particularly stand out much. Leftwich and Simms had the most success, but both have had bad injuries, may not be the same anymore, and are now risky choices.

2009 Shopping List

Our early picks should be roughly 18, 49, 85, and probably an early compensatory pick (97-100ish?) for Berrian.

Our FA position is discussed further down, in the Mailbag.

Rank.....Position.....Rounds it could be successfully addressed in.....Comment

1)………..FS....…..1-3…………….Brown is a 30+ FA with a long injury history, Manning has only 1 yr left, and they prefer him at nickel back. The Payne experiment demonstrates just how desperate they are.

2)………..DE.…….1-4……………Ogun, Idonije, and Anderson all expire after 09. Ogunleye and Anderson have been invisible, they want Idonije to do ST and rotational DT. Ogunleye 31.

3)……8 0..OT?….…1-3..………….Williams has a potentially serious injury concern, St Clair is a FA, Tait aging and a FA the year after.

4)……….HB?…….2-5…………….None of the backups has contributed anything with the ball. Forte getting seriously overworked.

5)……….WR?……1-3……………. Decent depth and 2 developing youngsters, but utterly atrocious in immediate top-end talent. Not much of a year for drafting or signing FA receivers, though.

6)………..QB?……1-7……………. Anything’s possible - could go real prospect, vet backup, or mid-round placeholder. Terrible top prospects, but late rounds shaping up to have interesting value. Since they like Hanie, signs are pointing more to veteran backup.

7)………..G?……...2-3…….……...Decent depth now, but very lacking in top-end talent

8)………..LB?.…...5-7……………..2 FAs. But Roach, McClover, and even Wilson are good bets to return

Blitz Draft

Blitz maintains a list of its top 500 players. Here’s who I would have taken for us, using player availability based on a recent version and my guesses at our eventual draft slots.

1) OT Eben Britton, Arizona

Not really thrilled about this, but usually 18 ends up being a reach if we can’t trade

2) FS Rashad Johnson, Alabama

We should be so lucky to have a shot at him in R2

3) DE Robert Ayers, Tenn

Might need another DE again next year after this, but since I figure Ogun and Anderson to be gone, we probably need 2 anyway.

3C*) WR Demetrius Byrd, LSU

Probable comp pick for Berrian turns into another R3 speed receiver

4) T/G Troy Kropog, Tulane

Physically talented ex-teammate of Forte’s

5) QB Tom Brandstater, Fresno State

QB not planned, but I like Brandstater a lot more than Chris, I guess

6) HB Kory Sheets, Purdue

7) FB Jorvorskie Lane, Texas AM

Eye on the Future

Players that fit the Bears’s needs, scheme, and draft slots well. Not a complete ranking of the position.

Rashad Jennings, 6’1 235 4.55 , Liberty

Not fast, shifty, or much of a receiver, but a good bruiser back.

James Davis, 5’10 207 4.50, Clemson

Not an accomplished receiver, blocker, or a big breakaway threat

Marlon Lucky, 6’0 210 4.50, Nebraska
Very well-rounded player. Physically, similar stylistically to Forte. Bafflingly underrated by some after sharing carries as a senior.

Cedric Peerman, 5’9 210 4.50, Virginia

Good receiver, lots of injuries

Kory Sheets, 5’11 205 4.50, Purdue

Good receiver and blocker

Glen Coffee, 6’1 200 4.50, Alabama

Will have to add weight without losing too much speed

Branden Ore, 5’11 200 4.50, West Liberty State

Sadly, Coffee and Ore may not be going to Combine

Rashad Johnson, 6’0 195 4.50, Alabama

On the rise after the Senior Bowl

Louis Delmas, 5’11 195 4.50, W Michigan

Good intangibles, mediocre measurables

William Moore, 6’0 225 4.55, Missouri

Very unclear what position he fits well – if any. Needs to drop a lot of weight to play pro FS.

Derek Pegues, 5’9 190 4.45, Miss St
Small, fast transfer from CB. Size less than ideal, although fairly similar to young Mike Brown.

Not a lot of pure FSs, although if Angelo insists on continuing to go the smart + slow route, t hat would present more options.

Everette Brown, 6’4 250 4.70, Fl State(Jr)

This has to be the top thought right now, if he should last to 18

Clint Sintim, 6’3 250 4.70, Virginia

Better 3-4 candidate, but could play LB/DE (a la Colvin) or maybe DE in a 4-3

Michael Johnson, 6’6 260 4.65, Ga Tech
Great measurables, but production lags a bit. Unbelievably passed on the Senior Bowl, despite not being an elite prospect.

Connor Barwin, 6’3 255 4.65, Cincinnati

Having a breakout season in first year playing defense

Larry English, 6’2 255 4.75, N Illinois

3 very productive seasons, but may have to play in a 3-4

Robert Ayers, 6’3 275 4.75, Tenn

Senior Bowl propels him into relevancy

Paul Kruger, 6’4 265 4.70, Utah

Matt Shaughnessy, 6’6 253 4.75, Wisc

Some injury concern. Has frame to get bigger

Jason Smith, 6’4 300 5.20, Baylor

Athletic LT, but undersized and from a quirky offense.

Michael Oher, 6’5 310 5.20, Ole Miss

Overhyped and risky. But, that said, still a top prospect.

Eben Britton, 6’6 310 5.10, Arizona(Jr)

Phil Loadholt, 608 340 5.35, Oklahoma

Probably RT only. Long arms.

Andre Smith, 6’4 350 5.30, Alabama(Jr)

Raves about his talent, but physique and footspeed make him a better G prospect.

William Beatty, 6’6 290 5.15, Connecticut

Finesse T could use some weight.

Troy Kropog, 6’5 315 5.00, Tulane

Small school project with LT athleticism. Mixed reviews.

Jamon Meredith, 6’5 300 5.20, South Carolina

Fenuki Tupou, 6’6 330 5.25, Oregon

Pro RT. Powerful.

Matthew Stafford, 6’3 230, Georgia (Jr)

Will only be 21, but has almost 3 full yrs starting.

Mark Sanchez 6’3 225, USC (Jr)

Needs a lot more development, but came out because Bradford didn’t.

Josh Freeman 6’6 250, K State (Jr)

Giant with a powerful gun, but also extremely raw.

Rhett Bomar, 6’2 225, Sam Houston State

Nate Davis, 6’2 215, Ball State

Strong arm, funky mechanics, small

Tom Brandstater, 6’5 220, Fresno State

Well-rounded player

David Johnson, 6’2 220, Tulsa

Only 1yr experience

Hunter Cantwell, 6’4 230, Louisville

Strong arm, only201 yr of experience.

Curtis Painter, 6’4 220, Purdue

3 yrs as full-time starter

Nathan Brown, 6’1 215, Central Arkansas

Weak arm

Rudy Carpenter, 6’2 200 Arizona State

Graham Harrell, 6’2 215, Texas Tech
Every year or so, the new Texas Tech QB with crazy numbers is supposed to be ‘the real deal – not like all the other Texas Tech QBs with crazy numbers who had no pro impact.’ They never are. Weak arm.

Cullen Harper, 6’3 225, Clemson

Trainwreck senior season has dropped him from a top 25 to a top 250 prospect

Chase Daniel, 5’11 220 Missouri
Major height concerns and a mediocre arm, but jaw-dropping college production and quality intangibles, too.

Chase Holbrook, 6’5 240, NM State

Monster numbers in 06, tailed off a bit since.

Mike Reilly, 6’3 215, Central Washington

Mike Teel, 6’3 220, Rutgers

Willie Tuitama, 6’3 220 Arizona

JP Wilson, 6’2 215, Alabama

Awful at the top, but I’m growing really intrigued by some of the value likely to be around in R4-7…which is where all but the top couple of these guys belong. Because of the way they’re all bunched together in quality, it’s entirely reasonable for a QB to be=2 08^th on one evaluator’s list and 25^th on someone else’s. There’s very little separation in this unimpressive crew.

Mailbag

Dave, how is the salary cap situation for bears? Thanks.

Bill F

In this era of Internet information availability, finding accurate and detailed cap info is still extremely difficult. It’s also not uncommon for two seemingly reliable sources to publish highly contradictory within a week or two of each other.

Typically, the Bears have managed their cap quite well (not cheapness, but actual skill!). They’ve virtually never had ‘over the cap slash and burn’ issues. Usually they have lots of room left as the end of the season approaches, and they do creative deals with veterans to extend their contracts and pay them out of the current year’s cap for service they’ll=2 0get in future years (a type of front-loaded extension). In 2008, the Bears used nearly every dollar they had available – despite entering the season with a sizeable amount remaining, IIRC. They spent most of that leftover amount on a quirky contract for CB Marcus Hamilton (stolen midseason when the Bucs tried to drop him back to the PS) which boils down to a sneaky way to take 10M of available 2008 cap space and transfer it to 2009, making 2009’s pot bigger.

Recently, Brad Biggs (Chicago Sun-Times) did a follow-up to a Kevin Seifert (ESPN) piece – the upshot of which is that the Bears should have about 27M available in a 123M cap for 2009.

One important thing neither piece mentions is how many players (and how many key players) are under contract at the time of those numbers. For example, one team may end the season with 53 players on their roster, have 15 players (all starters) becoming free agents in the offseason, and a cap number of 90M. Another team might end the season with 53 player on their roster, have only 4 free agents (none of them starters) with contracts that expire at the end of the season, and a cap number of 90M. Clearly, Team B is in much better position, because they have 33M to work with and very few holes left to fill up. Team A has 33M to work with, but 33M to replace/re-sign 15 starters isn’t going to go very far.

Biggs did report the team’s leading cap numbers f or 2009 as approximately:
1) Brian Urlacher 9.7 million
2) Tommie Harris 9.1
3) Devin Hester 6.9
4) Lance Briggs 6.8
5) Adewale Ogunleye 6.4
6) John Tait 5.4
7) Nathan Vasher 4.9
8) Charles Tillman 4.8

Worth noting is that 6/8 are defense. That’s where the team spends draft picks and $ both and that’s why the defense is almost always better than the offense around here. Also worth noting is that only 3/8 (Briggs, Tait, Tillman) are worth or even remotely close to worth that much, based on 2008 performance. (Maybe Hester for a 4^th, if you project based off his last few games only.)

I’m expecting a source will have a good update/refined estimate for 2009 total team cap in roughly a month or so – a bit before free agency kicks off (Feb 27), I hope. In the meantime, here’s a site with some good general info on the salary cap and free agency (links on the left).

http://www.askthecommish.com/salarycap/numbers.asp

* Today’s unexpected grammar lesson: it’s "TOE", not "TOW", doggone it!

http://www.phrases.org.uk/meanings/toe-the-line.html

Coming Soon

Possibly a short update in Feb

A giant update in mid March – my post-combine full draft board with 256+ slotted players!

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