Image
image
image
image


Jacksonville Jaguars Column
 


Our 2009 NFL Draft Guide is now on sale!
This is our 7th year publishing what has quickly become one of the must-have draft guides of the year.  In 2008 our draft guide went out to 31 of the 32 NFL teams.  We're thrilled to say that since it's introduction, the draft guide has been met with nothing but glowing praise and generally exceptional feedback.  We strive to continue that same level of quality this year by putting out work that is consistently amongst the best around.  In addition to that, it's also one of the best values and biggest guides you'll find anywhere.  Click here for more information and to order.
 


By: Collin Streetman

3/19/09

There is no quicker way to damage one's credibility than to start rumors that never come to fruition. There are always a ton of rumors going around during the offseason, and we don't like to get egg on our face more often than we have to. That being said, JagNation has a story (In the pay section, so I can't/won't go into detail) that implies Cutler could be involved in a trade to Jacksonville. Jagnation started this rumor, and they are deeply connected, so there must be some truth to it.

Here's the link... 

I ventured into the dreaded Jags Message Boards to see what people were saying (NOTE: This is never a good idea if you want intelligent info), and what I saw was a complete disregard for reality. 

Let me be the voice of reason here people... DAVID GARRARD will NOT be traded in any deal. Period. What may occur is a 3-way trade involving the Jags.... In a 3-way trade, one team is usually the "middle-man" who has the leverage to negociate two different deals to accomplish what one deal would have, and then to reap the benefits. 

Here's how I see what's happening (this doesn't mean it will happen, but this is SPECULATION). It is a pretty good guess though, if I do say so myself. The Bucs want Cutler, no doubt about it. However, the Bucs also need a DT. They missed out on Haynesworth and they lost Jovan Haye in free agency. ENTER BIG JOHN... I am guessing the Jags will work out a deal that involves the #8 pick (and possibly additional compensation) going to the Broncos for Cutler. The Jags would then trade Cutler to the Bucs (all three sides would have a deal in place so nobody gets stuck, that's how 3-ways work) along with Big John Henderson for a literal plethora of picks. We ditch the number 8 pick and John Henderson in one fell swoop... That is my ideal scenario. 

I will guarantee that DAVID WILL NOT BE TRADED... You can take that to the bank, regardless of how this turns out. Anyone who thinks we are going to trade a man of high character and a proven leader like David, for a prima-donna like Cutler, is out of their gourd. That goes against everything Gene stands for. If this trade occurs, the Jags will only be a middle man, that's a promise.

 

3/17/09

The Future of the Salary Cap
 

 

There has been a great deal of discussion as to whether or not the elimination of the salary cap would mean an end to fair competition in the NFL. The answer to this question is a resounding NO, and there are a number of reasons why. 

The NFL hasn't always had a salary-cap:

The NFL functioned without a salary cap up until 1994, when the original CBA was instituted. I managed to find a graph that compares the distribution of wins among teams prior to 1994, up until now. The prevailing thought is that having an uncapped NFL would lead to a few teams that amassed tons of wins, and a large number of teams who were consistantly bottom feeders. We would not expect to see as many average teams as we do now, where much of the NFL finishes between 7-9 and 9-7. 

The blue line represents the number of wins prior to the CBA, and the red line represents number of wins after the institution of the CBA. Notice a difference? Neither do I...

It seems counter-intuitive, but the distribution of wins among NFL teams doesn't significantly differ from before the CBA was instituted. Could there be more to having a successful NFL franchise beyond how much is spent on player acquisition? Yes!

The Growth of the cap and the problems with a salary floor:

Second, no salary cap means no salary floor: The current salary floor mandates that NFL teams are to spend at least 84% of the entire salary cap, no matter what. When you have the salary cap expanding at such drastic rates, the salary floor grows with it. Here's a list of the amount the salary cap has grown each year since 1999. 

Salary Cap Per Team for NFL Player Salaries by Year

2008 $116 million 2003 $75 million
2007 $109 million 2002 $71 million
2006 $102 million 2001 $67.5 million
2005 $85.5 million 2000 $62.2 million
2004 $80.5 million 1999 $58.4 million
 


Wow... Just so you know, the salary cap this season jumped to $127 million. That means that over 90 million has to be spent on player salaries this season alone. When the cap is growing so exponentially, it really doesn't matter that it exists at all. Rich teams can afford to keep their key players when they have that much cash floating around and are required to spend a certain amount. They'll just manipulate the terms of the contract to make it cap-friendly. This means that most quality players don't even reach free agency because their respective teams have plenty of money to re-sign them. 

The Cap is a funny animal, it can be manipulated and forced into doing whatever you want it to do, as a result, it might as well just disappear altogether. A perfect example is when Dan Snyder spent over $100 million in the year 2000, at a time when the cap was only $62.2 million.

A special way of paying players called a signing bonus is used to avoid dealing with cap problems. A player may only get a salary of $500k, but a signing bonus of $10 million for a 5 year deal. You would think this means that his cap hit is $10.5 million that year because that's how much he was paid that year... Well, you're wrong. The signing bonus is pro-rated throughout the length of the contract, so even though the player was paid $10..5 million that year, his cap hit was only $2.5 million because the $10 million is divided by the length of the contract (5 years in this example), which comes to 2 million. Then we add his base salary of $500k, and we see how the cap cost reaches $2.5 million. 

You might say, "Collin, their irresponsible behavior will catch up with them soon enough!" In theory, you are correct. However, the cap has grown even more rapidly than predicted, and it has allowed teams to spend irresponsibility without consequences. It is almost pointless as it stands now.

Restricted Free Agency:

Third, a player would have to accrue six seasons of NFL experience before he would be a free agent, not the four that are required now. This means that once a player's rookie contract expires he'll still be a RFA for one or two seasons, depending on the length of his contact (The NFL only permits the top 16 picks in the draft to sign 6 year deals). This means the team would still own their rights and could tender them accordingly. Once tendered, the team would receive compensation if another team chose to offer the player a contract and his original squad opted not to match. That's right, the team he currently plays for can choose to match the offer and the player has no say in where he goes... Basically, if you draft well, you'll own the players rights for at least six seasons and if you choose to not match the offer the player recieves, then you'll get draft pick compensation. 

Allow me divert for a moment and explain the levels that you can tender a RFA (note that this is different than placing a franchise or transition tag on a player). The levels are First and Third round tender (meaning if another team signs him you get a 1st and 3rd round pick), First round tender, Second round tender, and Original round tender (you receive a pick from the same round that the player was originally drafted in). You can tender as many players as you want who are RFA, or you may choose not to. 

Without a salary cap, the draft increases in importance, drastically. Not only does it become the chief way to acquire talent for small market teams, the value of each pick also increases because you will own that player's rights for an extra two years. The most important person on an NFL team without a salary cap is the GM. Gene Smith is the the kind of man you want running your franchise.

Franchising multiple players:

Fourth, without a salary cap, a team would be able to franchise or transition two players instead of one. This means even if a player reaches his sixth season and is ready to hit free agency, he can still be franchised and it would again prevent him from leaving (Franchise and transition tags are different than restricted free agent tenders). Since you can franchise a player more than once, it effectively means you can keep a player for eight or more seasons without having to sign him beyond his rookie contract. You would be able to do this to two different players each year, meaning that you could effectively keep the core of your team intact as long as you draft well. If you can't draft, you are going to struggle big-time. If someone else offered him a contract you chose not to match, then you would receive two first round picks for a franchise player, but nothing for a transition player (except the ability to match the offer given).

Additional ways to level competition without a cap:

The top 8 NFL teams would only be permitted to sign free agents at the rate they lose them each year. On top of that, the league would keep the same scheduling parameters in place, meaning the worse a team does, the easier their schedule is the following season. Also, the draft order would remain the same, with the worst teams getting to choose first. These barriers would have the effect of inhibiting the ability of the top eight teams to improve themselves.

WHEW!!

I hope I answered some of your questions and have provided you with the kind of information that you can use to refute all those who say that the NFL will turn into the MLB without a salary cap... That's just not the case.... If you have any other questions, just list them in the comments and I'll do my best to get to them ASAP.

 

3/11/09

There has been a great deal of discussion as to whether or not the elimination of the salary cap would mean an end to fair competition in the NFL. The answer to this question is a resounding NO, and there are a number of reasons why. 

The NFL hasn't always had a salary-cap:

The NFL functioned without a salary cap up until 1994, when the original CBA was instituted. I managed to find a graph that compares the distribution of wins among teams prior to 1994, up until now. The prevailing thought is that having an uncapped NFL would lead to a few teams that amassed tons of wins, and a large number of teams who were consistantly bottom feeders. We would not expect to see as many average teams as we do now, where much of the NFL finishes between 7-9 and 9-7. 

The blue line represents the number of wins prior to the CBA, and the red line represents number of wins after the institution of the CBA. Notice a difference? Neither do I...

It seems counter-intuitive, but the distribution of wins among NFL teams doesn't significantly differ from before the CBA was instituted. Could there be more to having a successful NFL franchise beyond how much is spent on player acquisition? Yes!

The Growth of the cap and the problems with a salary floor:

Second, no salary cap means no salary floor: The current salary floor mandates that NFL teams are to spend at least 84% of the entire salary cap, no matter what. When you have the salary cap expanding at such drastic rates, the salary floor grows with it. Here's a list of the amount the salary cap has grown each year since 1999. 

 

Salary Cap Per Team for NFL Player Salaries by Year

2008 $116 million 2003 $75 million
2007 $109 million 2002 $71 million
2006 $102 million 2001 $67.5 million
2005 $85.5 million 2000 $62.2 million
2004 $80.5 million 1999 $58.4 million
 


Wow... Just so you know, the salary cap this season jumped to $127 million. That means that over 90 million has to be spent on player salaries this season alone. When the cap is growing so exponentially, it really doesn't matter that it exists at all. Rich teams can afford to keep their key players when they have that much cash floating around and are required to spend a certain amount. They'll just manipulate the terms of the contract to make it cap-friendly. This means that most quality players don't even reach free agency because their respective teams have plenty of money to re-sign them. 

The Cap is a funny animal, it can be manipulated and forced into doing whatever you want it to do, as a result, it might as well just disappear altogether. A perfect example is when Dan Snyder spent over $100 million in the year 2000, at a time when the cap was only $62.2 million.

A special way of paying players called a signing bonus is used to avoid dealing with cap problems. A player may only get a salary of $500k, but a signing bonus of $10 million for a 5 year deal. You would think this means that his cap hit is $10.5 million that year because that's how much he was paid that year... Well, you're wrong. The signing bonus is pro-rated throughout the length of the contract, so even though the player was paid $10..5 million that year, his cap hit was only $2.5 million because the $10 million is divided by the length of the contract (5 years in this example), which comes to 2 million. Then we add his base salary of $500k, and we see how the cap cost reaches $2.5 million. 

You might say, "Collin, their irresponsible behavior will catch up with them soon enough!" In theory, you are correct. However, the cap has grown even more rapidly than predicted, and it has allowed teams to spend irresponsibility without consequences. It is almost pointless as it stands now.

Restricted Free Agency:

Third, a player would have to accrue six seasons of NFL experience before he would be a free agent, not the four that are required now. This means that once a player's rookie contract expires he'll still be a RFA for one or two seasons, depending on the length of his contact (The NFL only permits the top 16 picks in the draft to sign 6 year deals). This means the team would still own their rights and could tender them accordingly. Once tendered, the team would receive compensation if another team chose to offer the player a contract and his original squad opted not to match. That's right, the team he currently plays for can choose to match the offer and the player has no say in where he goes... Basically, if you draft well, you'll own the players rights for at least six seasons and if you choose to not match the offer the player recieves, then you'll get draft pick compensation. 

Allow me divert for a moment and explain the levels that you can tender a RFA (note that this is different than placing a franchise or transition tag on a player). The levels are First and Third round tender (meaning if another team signs him you get a 1st and 3rd round pick), First round tender, Second round tender, and Original round tender (you receive a pick from the same round that the player was originally drafted in). You can tender as many players as you want who are RFA, or you may choose not to. 

Without a salary cap, the draft increases in importance, drastically. Not only does it become the chief way to acquire talent for small market teams, the value of each pick also increases because you will own that player's rights for an extra two years. The most important person on an NFL team without a salary cap is the GM. Gene Smith is the the kind of man you want running your franchise.

Franchising multiple players:

Fourth, without a salary cap, a team would be able to franchise or transition two players instead of one. This means even if a player reaches his sixth season and is ready to hit free agency, he can still be franchised and it would again prevent him from leaving (Franchise and transition tags are different than restricted free agent tenders). Since you can franchise a player more than once, it effectively means you can keep a player for eight or more seasons without having to sign him beyond his rookie contract. You would be able to do this to two different players each year, meaning that you could effectively keep the core of your team intact as long as you draft well. If you can't draft, you are going to struggle big-time. If someone else offered him a contract you chose not to match, then you would receive two first round picks for a franchise player, but nothing for a transition player (except the ability to match the offer given).

Additional ways to level competition without a cap:

The top 8 NFL teams would only be permitted to sign free agents at the rate they lose them each year. On top of that, the league would keep the same scheduling parameters in place, meaning the worse a team does, the easier their schedule is the following season. Also, the draft order would remain the same, with the worst teams getting to choose first. These barriers would have the effect of inhibiting the ability of the top eight teams to improve themselves.

WHEW!!

I hope I answered some of your questions and have provided you with the kind of information that you can use to refute all those who say that the NFL will turn into the MLB without a salary cap... That's just not the case.... If you have any other questions, just list them in the comments and I'll do my best to get to them ASAP.

 

3/2/09

OFFENSIVE LINE COMBINE ANALYSIS

 

Jason Smith threw up 225 lbs on the bench press 33 times. Oher  managed 21 reps, and Eugene Monroe reached 23 reps. Both have longer arms than Smith does, but that still doesn't account for the entire discrepancy in strength. This will only cause Oher to fall further and the Jags are clearly trying to move out of the #8 spot, so it may end up being a marriage of need and availability.

Michael Crabtree will be lucky to be a first round pick... He's got to have surgery.

This will hurt his draft status big-time. I really struggle seeing him taken anywhere before the 20th pick or so. He's got to have surgery or at some point his foot will simply break completely, that's how stress fractures work. If not treated correctly, they will eventually fracture completely, resulting in a broken foot for Michael. Medical tests are the main reason you have a combine, things like this must be discovered prior to selecting a player. 

It also appears that John Henderson is on the trading block as he has been linked to two trade rumors that both originated from Jacksonville radio... Don't be surprised to see him in another uniform next season too. We are acquiring picks, and as I've said before, there is no sacred cow in Gene Smith's pasture. I'm convinced the guy would trade Jack Del Rio, David Garrard, and his own mother in a package deal for the right price of picks... I love it!

Jason Smith looks to be the most NFL ready lineman, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him gone first. On the other hand, Andre Smith apparently showed up out of shape and didn't work out; apparently combine officials couldn't even locate him this morning. That is not good for his draft stock at all.

While Alabama offensive tackle Andre Smith isn’t working out and has drawn criticism for showing up out of shape and for combine officials being unable to locate him this morning, his competition is making their case to NFL talent evaluators.

Way to go Andre! 

I have a hard time believing he'll still be a top 10 pick with all the character concerns. His suspension from the Sugar Bowl, his struggles with weight, and now we find out he couldn't be located for some of the most important interviews of his life. If you're not going to work out then you've got to at least interview well. 

A list of the top 10 performers in some of the major combine drills. Offensive line and TE.

Jared Cook, TE out of South Carolina was rumored to run in the 4.3's. He turned in a disappointing 4.5 and likely hurt his stock. If he had run a 4.3 like he mentioned he did when he came into South Carolina and expected to do at the combine, then he'd have been a likely top 15 choice. As it stands now, he may slip into the second round. 

 

1/24/09

BREAKING NEWS: DEL RIO TO BE DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR - MEL TUCKER TO COACH SECONDARY

In one day, the Jaguars' have found both their new defensive coordinator after the departure of Gregg Williams and a new Secondary Coach after the departure of Donnie Henderson.

The Jags scored a major coup and snagged 2008 Browns Defensive Coordinator and DB specialist Mel Tucker to be our DB coach. It says a lot that Mel was willing to take the equivalent of a demotion to come to Jacksonville and coach the DB's. A Bio on Tucker will be up in a few days, but until then it is sufficient to say the guy knows the secondary. 

At the Defensive Coordinator position, Jack Del Rio has appointed... (wait for it)... Jack Del Rio. That's right, our Head Coach will now be calling the plays and the shots on defense. Expect passionate, full speed, hard knocks football with Del Rio at the helm. This also means that there is no chance that we switch to a 3-4 defensive scheme, in fact, expect us to return to a more conventional 4-3 defense with fewer blitzes overall. I know Del Rio learned a lot from watching and seeing Gregg Williams' playbook and style, so it will be interesting to see if Del Rio adopts any of Gregg's blitzing tendencies. 

Not many coaches in the NFL who are Defensive gurus take over the play calling on the defensive side of the ball, unlike their offensive counterparts (Gruden, Martz), so this breaks the conventional mold. It also will put a great deal of accountability on Del RIo's shoulders should the defense struggle. This is an "OWN IT" move by Del Rio. He's taking the defense's struggles personally, and he feels that he is the ideal man to fix the unit's deficiencies. That says a lot about the confidence he has in himself and it instills a great deal of confidence in me. 

Here's the press release. WOKV broke the story.

------------------------------------------------------------------------

After making a bold proclamation that no coaches would be relieved of their duties, another coach has left the team. At this time it is unclear whether Donnie was fired or if he resigned. Nevertheless, the Jags now have 7 coaching positions to fill. Def. Coordinator, Secondary, Special Teams, Assistant WR, Def Assistant, and 2 new Strength and Conditioning coaches. It's unclear if there was a falling out between the two headstrong coaches, or if this was an amicable split. The fact that Del Rio made it a point to say no one would be fired causes questions like this to be raised.

It's unfortunate that Donnie had to go, but the DB corp regressed as a whole and our new free agent didn't pan out. This move (in my opinion) virtually guarantees that the Jags will give Florence another year and pay his roster bonus. The team will likely want to see if he can continue to develop under improved tutelage. Henderson was touted as a fiery coach who was going to focus on teaching the players to make better reads on the QB. Unfortunately, the complete lack of a pass rush combined with a few injuries all contributed to the steep decline in the performance of our cornerbacks, and Donnie is taking the fall. 

This move may have something to do with the team wanting to bring in Mel Tucker of the Cleveland Browns as new DC. Mel's expertise is in the secondary and I believed from the start that if he came Donnie would go. Well, Donnie's gone, and I wouldn't be too surprised if we got word in the next few weeks that the team has hired Tucker. This is purely speculation on my part, but it makes perfect sense. 

 

1/21/09

THE CASE FOR PICKING EIGHTH

The Jaguars had pick number 26 last year and traded all the way up to number 8 in order to draft rookie Derrick Harvey in the first round. Now, they'll have the number eight overall pick again courtesy of a 5-11 record. The Front Office debacle that was the 2008 Jacksonville Jaguars has already claimed it's prize victim... James Shack Harris. Shack's departure has opened up the door for one of the organization's "old hats". Gene Smith has worked his way up through the Jaguars' organization and is more than deserving of this opportunity. He has earned it, and I for one look forward to his regime's first draft. He is the epitome of how hard work can pay off.

One of the major issues facing Gene is what to do with the number eight overall selection in the 2009 NFL draft? Some are calling for him to trade down, others are screaming for one of the top tackles to be taken with the pick, and still others are crying for the team to just draft the best available player at number 8 as a surefire way to fill one of our many holes. I have to say I agree with the two latter choices, either taking one of the top three tackles, or using the pick on another position of need on the team.

The major complaint of having a top draft pick is the money the team is required to invest in the player. Well, the Jags inadvertently did themselves a major favor by not cracking under Harvey's contract demands. They set the bar low (relatively speaking) for this year's number 8 pick. The team signed Harvey to 23.8 million dollar contract with possible incentives reaching only 33 million. Only 17.5 million of that is guaranteed money. When you compare that to Vernon Gholston's contract of 5 years 50 million with 21 million guaranteed, or Sedrick Ellis' deal worth 39 million with 19.5 million guaranteed, the deal the Jags got looks awfully sweet.

So, the Jaguar's frugality paid off and is a major reason the team can afford to pay another number 8 pick this year should they choose to do so. The other issue is that the Jaguar's hurt themselves by getting such a good deal from the Ravens to jump up from 26. The Ravens got two 3rd rounders and a 4th rounder to drop 18 spots. They then gave up a 3rd and a 6th to jump back up to 18. So to drop 10 spots, they gained a 3 and a 4, and lost a 6th. Not that great of a deal.

Another trade example is what NE did. They traded the number 7 pick and their 5th rounder for the Saints number 10 pick and their 3rd rounder. That would seem to be a much more feasible trade in my opinion, however, I don't think you can justify making that trade if one of the three main LT are on the board because I don't think the reward of one extra pick is worth losing out on the chance to draft a fixture at LT. 

All I'm saying is that the Jaguar's can afford to pay another number 8 pick because of how well they negotiated Harvey's contract. Plus, the trade value of a top 10 pick isn't what it used to be and I doubt the Jags are going to get anything more than what they gave the Ravens last year... I'm not sure that's worth giving up one of the stalwart LTs in this year's draft. 

1/7/09

The Jaguars' season now is squarely in our rear view mirror, and we can take an honest look at what we're dealing with. I don't see us rebuilding, I see us reloading. The overall strength of our roster is good, and our young players are developing quite nicely. I'll focus on the defense, and touch on the glaring need for a LT now, and the offense will be next.

We need a strong LT to keep Garrard upright; that has got to be priority number one. This is the hardest position to fill besides QB, but our spot as the number 8 overall pick puts us in prime position to draft one of the few OT who can come in and start from the beginning, so we should be able to solve that issue. Another option is to tie up a LT in free agency as a stop-gap while the LT we draft learns. That would also free us up to trade away the number eight pick and grab a linemen farther back who may need some polish before they're ready to shut down DE's. 

We need a STRONG Safety. The Brian Williams experiment is over, and he's no Bob Sanders (despite what Vic says). Gerald Sensabaugh will likely leave in free agency and if that happens, then SS jumps up the board as a major need for the team. Reggie Nelson is a speed and coverage guy, not a run stuffer. Brian Williams is more of a pass defender then a run stuffer too, meaning we need another Sammy Knight (only younger and faster... and capable of covering TE's). 

After thinking about it, I don't think we have to draft another CB. Next year we'll have Mathis, Williams, Florence, and Scott Starks. Most of these players are proto-typical cover two corner-backs (minus Scott Starks... he has the speed to play man-to-man against most), and I expect we'll see a major improvement when the team returns to this style of defense. Our two DE's should help bring pressure next year and that will help the CB's immensely. 

Our Defensive line really only needs an interior run-stuffer, a position best filled through the draft. I wouldn't be surprised to see Big John traded in a fashion similar to Stroud. He has a very high cap number and hasn't produced up to his contract in the last 2 years. Some of you may remember that he missed countless practices last season due to "personal problems", and it was expected that he would return to form this season. However, that hasn't been the case and he has struggled at times. He has played well over the last month though (The Jags shut down their opponents' running game the last 4 contests of the year), which may increase his trade value, or prompt the team to give him another season. On the whole, his performance has been unsatisfactory for the last two years.

Rob Meier hasn't played as well as he did last year prior to penning an extension. Derek Landri has played great, but he still isn't strong enough to be a force in the run-game. He's got a great ability to pressure to QB from the DT spot though, something that many interior linemen can't do. He was clearly an excellent 5th round pick, and you have to love anyone that comes out of Notre Dame.

Don't forget about our mammoth of a "jar on the shelf" Theo Horracks. He spent the season on IR, but he is a huge run-stopping DT we signed as a UDFA and holds a lot of promise. Our interior DT's must be our focus! If Terrence Cody comes out (which I'm betting he will) then I would have no problem trading back a few spots to try and draft him. Stop the run and run the ball... that's how you win.

Reggie Hayward has been one of the team's top performers at DE and has built a solid rapport with rookie DE Derrick Harvey. Hayward will undoubtedly be back both for his tutelage of Harvey, and his ability to play run or pass. Paul Spicer hasn't played as well this season either, but his versatility (he can play DE or DT) will get him another year. 

Harvey and Groves are developing quite well, and Derrick Harvey has actually been performing much better than most have given him credit for. As of Dec.12 he was only one behind Dwight Freeney and tied with Mario Williams in QB pressures. This was prior to his last three games, including the game against Baltimore where he registered 2 sacks.
 

AFC South QB pressures (with sacks)

Dwight Freeney, 25 (9.5)
Mario Williams, 24 (11)
Derrick Harvey, 24 (1.5)
Tony Brown, 21 (3.5)
Paul Spicer, 20 (3.5)
Albert Haynesworth, 19 (8.5)
Kyle Vanden Bosch, 18 (4.5)*
Reggie Hayward, 17 (1.5)
Rob Meier, 17 (2)
Jevon Kearse, 15 (2.5)
Robert Mathis 14, (11.5)
 

So, maybe some of you have been a little to hard on the guy, blaming him for the team's failures when he has been improving by leaps and bounds. Need more convincing? Read This.

Reggie Hayward had this to say about Harvey's development.

QUOTE:

 "He has the ability to be a great player," fellow starting defensive end Reggie Hayward said. "He's learning to let the game come to him instead of trying to force things."

"He used to be really quiet in the start, but now he's asking questions," Hayward said. "He's evolving his game. I don't mean physically, because he's already there. I mean he's evolving mentally. The game's starting to slow down for him."

Harvey admits that he may have forced his play a bit during the start of the season.

QUOTE

It is evident that Harvey is beginning to feel at ease with the team. He's got a mentor in Hayward and he is asking lots of questions, which highlights his desire to improve. I have no doubt that he will continue his strong push from the end of this season into next year. If he can continue to create pressure, it opens up all the possibilities of our defense. A new co-ordinator is going to walk into a very talented defense next season and I can't wait.

 

12/19/08

I was re-watching the game against Green Bay last week and made a few observations I thought deserved mention. The Jaguars clearly are playing to win, and that is a huge statement considering the letdown this season has become. Forget that trash about tanking to get a good draft pick. Just ask Herm Edwards why you play the game. I bet he'll tell you. We get 48 hours (TV time) of football guaranteed to us each year, and  I demand the best effort possible from my team every minute of that time. It's why we watch, but more importantly, it is why we love sports.

If the team can turn it around and go 7-9, it gives us a much brighter outlook on the future. There were quite a few things that didn't seem to go our way all season, and it has cost us. The missed FGs, the injuries, the needless turnovers, the shooting of a player, the locker-room infighting, the incorporation of a new defensive scheme, the loss of coaches to other teams... All of it hurt more than we thought. However, if we can turn it around and beat two playoff contenders back-to-back, then I think it shows we aren't far off our mark of being a playoff caliber team.

Last Sunday's game against a much-maligned, but very talented Packers team showed us that there a quite a few players who realize they are on the hot seat. Dennis Northcutt clearly realizes he's in danger of being cut in the offseason and is desperately trying to secure his roster spot for next year. Our WR corps has been the bane of this teams existence for far too long. Reggie Williams will have to turn out record breaking games in the next two contests, or the team will undoubtedly opt out of his final contract year. He knows this and we'll likely see his best effort. 2 games with 8-10 catches and 2 TD might be enough to save his job, but even that is unlikely.

George Wrighster is another player who I don't see having a future as a Jaguar. He's scheduled to earn $950,000 next season, and Marcedes Lewis and Greg Estandia have closed the significant gap in blocking ability that once existed between Wrighster and the rest of the TE's. George Wrighster is a Kyle Brady clone. He has sure hands and rarely drops a pass, can block like a guard, but is by far the slowest of our 4 TE's. George is another player who must turn out major performances in the last two games if he has any hope of keeping his job at a salary 3 times as high as Estandia's. 

Khalif Barnes is a guy I wouldn't mind resigning as a back-up tackle, but the team is obviously going to let him test free-agency. Expect a complete overhaul on the offensive line. The only two linemen who are secure as starters are Uche Nwari and Tony Pashos, everyone else is auditioning for a back-up role or possibilities with other franchises. Ideally, the Jags would want to resign Meester, but it may not be in the cards for the aging center. The question is, can the Front Office find an adequate replacement for him in the offseason at a cheaper price. He's good, but not as good as he once was, and that is exactly why you replace guys. 

Defensive Line is another area of concern. While watching the Green Bay game again, I noticed quite a few bright spots, but some concerning trends as well.

Derrick Harvey, played very well in my opinion. He was often double teamed on run plays to his side, and he held his ground (your job when being double teamed), and on a few occasions forced the opposing blockers back. I repeat, he can play the run well. For the first time, I saw consistent pass rush moves employed by Harvey to get to the QB. He had a spin move, a dive move, he executed his stunts flawlessly (something he had struggled with all season), and most importantly, he used his hands very well to keep the opposing linemen from locking on with their blocks. He has improved and I think he'll be much better next season. It was nice to see something other than a bull rush or an outside move. 

Rob Meier is inconsistent and hasn't played up to his contract extension. If John Henderson is playing well, then Rob plays well because the opponents focus on Big John. I haven't liked what I've seen from Meier lately. Tony Mc Daniel is now on IR so he's completely out of the mix. Quentin Groves is fast, explosive, and too small to play DE against the run. He must bulk up in the offseason or teams will continue to exploit his lack of size and inability to hold the point.

Reggie Hayward is a veteran who knows change is coming and can see the writing on the wall. He's playing for a roster spot next year and has really come on in the past month. If he continues to make plays he'll continue to be a Jag. Paul Spicer is in my Dog-House. He supposedly went to offseason training to improve his pass rushing abilities, and he hasn't done squat. He's old and really poses no threat in the pass game anymore. He is strong against the run, but not as strong as he used to be (notice a trend forming here?). In my opinion he's another player who is likely to be released unless he shows he's worth keeping. All of these players deserve to be kept under a watchful eye over the next two weeks. It may be their last as Jaguars.

-Collin Streetman

image
image