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Jacksonville Jaguars Column
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By:
Collin Streetman
3/19/09
There is no quicker way to
damage one's credibility than to start rumors that never
come to fruition. There are always a ton of rumors going
around during the offseason, and we don't like to get egg on
our face more often than we have to. That being said,
JagNation has a story (In the pay section, so I can't/won't
go into detail) that implies Cutler could be involved in a
trade to Jacksonville. Jagnation started this rumor, and
they are deeply connected, so there must be some truth to
it.
Here's the link...
I ventured into the dreaded
Jags Message Boards to see what people were saying (NOTE:
This is never a good idea if you want intelligent info), and
what I saw was a complete disregard for reality.
Let me be the voice of reason
here people... DAVID GARRARD will NOT be traded in any deal.
Period. What may occur is a 3-way trade involving the
Jags.... In a 3-way trade, one team is usually the
"middle-man" who has the leverage to negociate two different
deals to accomplish what one deal would have, and then to
reap the benefits.
Here's how I see what's
happening (this doesn't mean it will happen, but this is
SPECULATION). It is a pretty good guess though, if I do say
so myself. The Bucs want Cutler, no doubt about it. However,
the Bucs also need a DT. They missed out on Haynesworth and
they lost Jovan Haye in free agency. ENTER BIG JOHN... I am
guessing the Jags will work out a deal that involves the #8
pick (and possibly additional compensation) going to the
Broncos for Cutler. The Jags would then trade Cutler to the
Bucs (all three sides would have a deal in place so nobody
gets stuck, that's how 3-ways work) along with Big John
Henderson for a literal plethora of picks. We ditch the
number 8 pick and John Henderson in one fell swoop... That
is my ideal scenario.
I will guarantee that DAVID
WILL NOT BE TRADED... You can take that to the bank,
regardless of how this turns out. Anyone who thinks we are
going to trade a man of high character and a proven leader
like David, for a prima-donna like Cutler, is out of
their gourd. That goes against everything Gene stands for.
If this trade occurs, the Jags will only be a middle man,
that's a promise.
3/17/09
The Future of the Salary Cap
There has been a great
deal of discussion as to whether or not the elimination
of the salary cap would mean an end to fair competition
in the NFL. The answer to this question is a resounding
NO, and there are a number of reasons why.
The NFL hasn't always had
a salary-cap:
The NFL functioned
without a salary cap up until 1994, when the original
CBA was instituted. I managed to find a graph that
compares the distribution of wins among teams prior to
1994, up until now. The prevailing thought is that
having an uncapped NFL would lead to a few teams that
amassed tons of wins, and a large number of teams who
were consistantly bottom feeders. We would not expect to
see as many average teams as we do now, where much of
the NFL finishes between 7-9 and 9-7.

The blue line represents
the number of wins prior to the CBA, and the red line
represents number of wins after the institution of the
CBA. Notice a difference? Neither do I...
It seems
counter-intuitive, but the distribution of wins among
NFL teams doesn't significantly differ from before the
CBA was instituted. Could there be more to having a
successful NFL franchise beyond how much is spent on
player acquisition? Yes!
The Growth of the cap and
the problems with a salary floor:
Second, no salary cap
means no salary floor: The current salary floor mandates
that NFL teams are to spend at least 84% of the entire
salary cap, no matter what. When you have the salary cap
expanding at such drastic rates, the salary floor grows
with it. Here's a list of the amount the salary cap has
grown each year since 1999.
Salary Cap Per Team for NFL Player Salaries by Year
|
2008 |
$116 million |
2003 |
$75 million |
|
2007 |
$109 million |
2002 |
$71 million |
|
2006 |
$102 million |
2001 |
$67.5 million |
|
2005 |
$85.5 million |
2000 |
$62.2 million |
|
2004 |
$80.5 million |
1999 |
$58.4 million
|
Wow... Just so you know, the salary cap this
season jumped to $127 million. That means that over 90
million has to be spent on player salaries this season
alone. When the cap is growing so exponentially, it
really doesn't matter that it exists at all. Rich teams
can afford to keep their key players when they have that
much cash floating around and are required to spend a
certain amount. They'll just manipulate the terms of the
contract to make it cap-friendly. This means that most
quality players don't even reach free agency because
their respective teams have plenty of money to re-sign
them.
The Cap is a funny
animal, it can be manipulated and forced into doing
whatever you want it to do, as a result, it might as
well just disappear altogether. A perfect example is
when Dan Snyder spent over $100 million in the year
2000, at a time when the cap was only $62.2 million.
A special way of paying
players called a signing bonus is used to avoid dealing
with cap problems. A player may only get a salary of
$500k, but a signing bonus of $10 million for a 5 year
deal. You would think this means that his cap hit is
$10.5 million that year because that's how much he was
paid that year... Well, you're wrong. The signing bonus
is pro-rated throughout the length of the contract, so
even though the player was paid $10..5 million that
year, his cap hit was only $2.5 million because the $10
million is divided by the length of the contract (5
years in this example), which comes to 2 million. Then
we add his base salary of $500k, and we see how the cap
cost reaches $2.5 million.
You might say, "Collin,
their irresponsible behavior will catch up with them
soon enough!" In theory, you are correct. However, the
cap has grown even more rapidly than predicted, and it
has allowed teams to spend irresponsibility without
consequences. It is almost pointless as it stands now.
Restricted Free Agency:
Third, a player would
have to accrue six seasons of NFL experience before he
would be a free agent, not the four that are required
now. This means that once a player's rookie contract
expires he'll still be a RFA for one or two seasons,
depending on the length of his contact (The NFL only
permits the top 16 picks in the draft to sign 6 year
deals). This means the team would still own their rights
and could tender them accordingly. Once tendered, the
team would receive compensation if another team chose to
offer the player a contract and his original squad opted
not to match. That's right, the team he currently plays
for can choose to match the offer and the player has no
say in where he goes... Basically, if you draft well,
you'll own the players rights for at least six seasons
and if you choose to not match the offer the player
recieves, then you'll get draft pick compensation.
Allow me divert for a
moment and explain the levels that you can tender a RFA
(note that this is different than placing a franchise or
transition tag on a player). The levels are First and
Third round tender (meaning if another team signs him
you get a 1st and 3rd round pick), First round tender,
Second round tender, and Original round tender (you
receive a pick from the same round that the player was
originally drafted in). You can tender as many players
as you want who are RFA, or you may choose not to.
Without a salary cap, the
draft increases in importance, drastically. Not only
does it become the chief way to acquire talent for small
market teams, the value of each pick also increases
because you will own that player's rights for an extra
two years. The most important person on an NFL team
without a salary cap is the GM. Gene Smith is the the
kind of man you want running your franchise.
Franchising multiple
players:
Fourth, without a salary
cap, a team would be able to franchise or transition two
players instead of one. This means even if a player
reaches his sixth season and is ready to hit free
agency, he can still be franchised and it would again
prevent him from leaving (Franchise and transition tags
are different than restricted free agent tenders). Since
you can franchise a player more than once, it
effectively means you can keep a player for eight or
more seasons without having to sign him beyond his
rookie contract. You would be able to do this to two
different players each year, meaning that you could
effectively keep the core of your team intact as long as
you draft well. If you can't draft, you are going to
struggle big-time. If someone else offered him a
contract you chose not to match, then you would receive
two first round picks for a franchise player, but
nothing for a transition player (except the ability to
match the offer given).
Additional ways to level
competition without a cap:
The top 8 NFL teams would
only be permitted to sign free agents at the rate they
lose them each year. On top of that, the league would
keep the same scheduling parameters in place, meaning
the worse a team does, the easier their schedule is the
following season. Also, the draft order would remain the
same, with the worst teams getting to choose first.
These barriers would have the effect of inhibiting the
ability of the top eight teams to improve themselves.
WHEW!!
I hope I answered some of
your questions and have provided you with the kind of
information that you can use to refute all those who say
that the NFL will turn into the MLB without a salary
cap... That's just not the case.... If you have any
other questions, just list them in the comments and I'll
do my best to get to them ASAP.
3/11/09
There has been a great deal
of discussion as to whether or not the elimination of the
salary cap would mean an end to fair competition in the NFL.
The answer to this question is a resounding NO, and there
are a number of reasons why.
The NFL hasn't always had a
salary-cap:
The NFL functioned without a
salary cap up until 1994, when the original CBA was
instituted. I managed to find a graph that compares the
distribution of wins among teams prior to 1994, up until
now. The prevailing thought is that having an uncapped NFL
would lead to a few teams that amassed tons of wins, and a
large number of teams who were consistantly bottom feeders.
We would not expect to see as many average teams as we do
now, where much of the NFL finishes between 7-9 and 9-7.

The blue line represents the
number of wins prior to the CBA, and the red line represents
number of wins after the institution of the CBA. Notice a
difference? Neither do I...
It seems counter-intuitive,
but the distribution of wins among NFL teams doesn't
significantly differ from before the CBA was instituted.
Could there be more to having a successful NFL franchise
beyond how much is spent on player acquisition? Yes!
The Growth of the cap and the
problems with a salary floor:
Second, no salary cap means
no salary floor: The current salary floor mandates that NFL
teams are to spend at least 84% of the entire salary cap, no
matter what. When you have the salary cap expanding at such
drastic rates, the salary floor grows with it. Here's a list
of the amount the salary cap has grown each year since
1999.
Salary Cap Per Team for NFL
Player Salaries by Year
|
2008 |
$116
million |
2003 |
$75
million |
|
2007 |
$109
million |
2002 |
$71
million |
|
2006 |
$102
million |
2001 |
$67.5 million |
|
2005 |
$85.5 million |
2000 |
$62.2 million |
|
2004 |
$80.5 million |
1999 |
$58.4 million
|
Wow... Just so you know, the salary cap this season jumped
to $127 million. That means that over 90 million has to be
spent on player salaries this season alone. When the cap is
growing so exponentially, it really doesn't matter that it
exists at all. Rich teams can afford to keep their key
players when they have that much cash floating around and
are required to spend a certain amount. They'll just
manipulate the terms of the contract to make it
cap-friendly. This means that most quality players don't
even reach free agency because their respective teams have
plenty of money to re-sign them.
The Cap is a funny animal, it
can be manipulated and forced into doing whatever you want
it to do, as a result, it might as well just disappear
altogether. A perfect example is when Dan Snyder spent over
$100 million in the year 2000, at a time when the cap was
only $62.2 million.
A special way of paying
players called a signing bonus is used to avoid dealing with
cap problems. A player may only get a salary of $500k, but a
signing bonus of $10 million for a 5 year deal. You would
think this means that his cap hit is $10.5 million that year
because that's how much he was paid that year... Well,
you're wrong. The signing bonus is pro-rated throughout the
length of the contract, so even though the player was paid
$10..5 million that year, his cap hit was only $2.5 million
because the $10 million is divided by the length of the
contract (5 years in this example), which comes to 2
million. Then we add his base salary of $500k, and we see
how the cap cost reaches $2.5 million.
You might say, "Collin, their
irresponsible behavior will catch up with them soon enough!"
In theory, you are correct. However, the cap has grown even
more rapidly than predicted, and it has allowed teams to
spend irresponsibility without consequences. It is almost
pointless as it stands now.
Restricted Free Agency:
Third, a player would have
to accrue six seasons of NFL experience before he would be a
free agent, not the four that are required now. This means
that once a player's rookie contract expires he'll still be
a RFA for one or two seasons, depending on the length of his
contact (The NFL only permits the top 16 picks in the draft
to sign 6 year deals). This means the team would still own
their rights and could tender them accordingly. Once
tendered, the team would receive compensation if another
team chose to offer the player a contract and his original
squad opted not to match. That's right, the team he
currently plays for can choose to match the offer and the
player has no say in where he goes... Basically, if you
draft well, you'll own the players rights for at least six
seasons and if you choose to not match the offer the player
recieves, then you'll get draft pick compensation.
Allow me divert for a moment
and explain the levels that you can tender a RFA (note that
this is different than placing a franchise or transition tag
on a player). The levels are First and Third round tender
(meaning if another team signs him you get a 1st and 3rd
round pick), First round tender, Second round tender, and
Original round tender (you receive a pick from the same
round that the player was originally drafted in). You can
tender as many players as you want who are RFA, or you may
choose not to.
Without a salary cap, the
draft increases in importance, drastically. Not only does it
become the chief way to acquire talent for small market
teams, the value of each pick also increases because you
will own that player's rights for an extra two years. The
most important person on an NFL team without a salary cap is
the GM. Gene Smith is the the kind of man you want running
your franchise.
Franchising multiple players:
Fourth, without a salary cap,
a team would be able to franchise or transition two players
instead of one. This means even if a player reaches his
sixth season and is ready to hit free agency, he can still
be franchised and it would again prevent him from leaving
(Franchise and transition tags are different than restricted
free agent tenders). Since you can franchise a player more
than once, it effectively means you can keep a player for
eight or more seasons without having to sign him beyond his
rookie contract. You would be able to do this to two
different players each year, meaning that you could
effectively keep the core of your team intact as long as you
draft well. If you can't draft, you are going to struggle
big-time. If someone else offered him a contract you chose
not to match, then you would receive two first round picks
for a franchise player, but nothing for a transition player
(except the ability to match the offer given).
Additional ways to level
competition without a cap:
The top 8 NFL teams would
only be permitted to sign free agents at the rate they lose
them each year. On top of that, the league would keep the
same scheduling parameters in place, meaning the worse a
team does, the easier their schedule is the following
season. Also, the draft order would remain the same, with
the worst teams getting to choose first. These barriers
would have the effect of inhibiting the ability of the top
eight teams to improve themselves.
WHEW!!
I hope I answered some of
your questions and have provided you with the kind of
information that you can use to refute all those who say
that the NFL will turn into the MLB without a salary cap...
That's just not the case.... If you have any other
questions, just list them in the comments and I'll do my
best to get to them ASAP.
3/2/09
OFFENSIVE LINE COMBINE ANALYSIS
Jason Smith threw up 225 lbs
on the bench press 33 times. Oher managed 21 reps, and
Eugene Monroe reached 23 reps. Both have longer arms than
Smith does, but that still doesn't account for the
entire discrepancy in strength. This will only cause Oher to
fall further and the Jags are clearly trying to move out of
the #8 spot, so it may end up being a marriage of need and
availability.
Michael Crabtree will be lucky to be a first
round pick... He's got to have surgery.
This will hurt his draft
status big-time. I really struggle seeing him taken anywhere
before the 20th pick or so. He's got to have surgery or at
some point his foot will simply break completely, that's how
stress fractures work. If not treated correctly, they will
eventually fracture completely, resulting in a broken foot
for Michael. Medical tests are the main reason you have a
combine, things like this must be discovered prior to
selecting a player.
It also appears that John
Henderson is on the trading block as he has been linked to
two trade rumors that both originated from Jacksonville
radio... Don't be surprised to see him in another uniform
next season too. We are acquiring picks, and as I've said
before, there is no sacred cow in Gene Smith's pasture. I'm
convinced the guy would trade Jack Del Rio, David Garrard,
and his own mother in a package deal for the right price of
picks... I love it!
Jason Smith looks to be the
most NFL ready lineman, and I wouldn't be surprised to see
him gone first. On the other hand, Andre Smith apparently
showed up out of shape and didn't work out; apparently
combine officials couldn't even locate him this morning.
That is not good for his draft stock at all.
While Alabama offensive
tackle Andre Smith isn’t working out and has drawn
criticism for showing up out of shape and for combine
officials being unable to locate him this morning, his
competition is making their case to NFL talent
evaluators.
Way to go Andre!
I have a hard time believing
he'll still be a top 10 pick with all the character
concerns. His suspension from the Sugar Bowl, his struggles
with weight, and now we find out he couldn't be located for
some of the most important interviews of his life. If you're
not going to work out then you've got to at least interview
well.
A list of the top 10 performers in some of
the major combine drills. Offensive line and TE.
Jared Cook, TE out of South
Carolina was rumored to run in the 4.3's. He turned in a
disappointing 4.5 and likely hurt his stock. If he had run a
4.3 like he mentioned he did when he came into South
Carolina and expected to do at the combine, then he'd have
been a likely top 15 choice. As it stands now, he may slip
into the second round.
1/24/09
BREAKING NEWS: DEL
RIO TO BE DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR - MEL TUCKER TO COACH SECONDARY
In one day, the Jaguars' have found both
their new defensive coordinator after the departure of Gregg
Williams and a new Secondary Coach after the departure of
Donnie Henderson.
The Jags scored a major coup and snagged 2008
Browns Defensive Coordinator and DB specialist Mel Tucker to
be our DB coach. It says a lot that Mel was willing to take
the equivalent of a demotion to come to Jacksonville and
coach the DB's. A Bio on Tucker will be up in a few days,
but until then it is sufficient to say the guy knows the
secondary.
At the Defensive Coordinator position, Jack
Del Rio has appointed... (wait for it)... Jack Del Rio.
That's right, our Head Coach will now be calling the plays
and the shots on defense. Expect passionate, full speed,
hard knocks football with Del Rio at the helm. This also
means that there is no chance that we switch to a 3-4
defensive scheme, in fact, expect us to return to a more
conventional 4-3 defense with fewer blitzes overall. I know
Del Rio learned a lot from watching and seeing Gregg
Williams' playbook and style, so it will be interesting to
see if Del Rio adopts any of Gregg's blitzing tendencies.
Not many coaches in the NFL who are Defensive
gurus take over the play calling on the defensive side of
the ball, unlike their offensive counterparts (Gruden,
Martz), so this breaks the conventional mold. It also will
put a great deal of accountability on Del RIo's shoulders
should the defense struggle. This is an "OWN IT" move by Del
Rio. He's taking the defense's struggles personally, and he
feels that he is the ideal man to fix the
unit's deficiencies. That says a lot about the confidence he
has in himself and it instills a great deal of confidence in
me.
Here's the press release. WOKV broke the
story.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
After making a bold proclamation that no
coaches would be relieved of their duties, another coach has
left the team. At this time it is unclear whether Donnie was
fired or if he resigned. Nevertheless, the Jags now have 7
coaching positions to fill. Def. Coordinator, Secondary,
Special Teams, Assistant WR, Def Assistant, and 2 new
Strength and Conditioning coaches. It's unclear if there was
a falling out between the two headstrong coaches, or if this
was an amicable split. The fact that Del Rio made it a point
to say no one would be fired causes questions like this to
be raised.
It's unfortunate that Donnie had to go, but
the DB corp regressed as a whole and our new free agent
didn't pan out. This move (in my opinion) virtually
guarantees that the Jags will give Florence another year and
pay his roster bonus. The team will likely want to see if he
can continue to develop under improved tutelage. Henderson
was touted as a fiery coach who was going to focus on
teaching the players to make better reads on the QB.
Unfortunately, the complete lack of a pass rush combined
with a few injuries all contributed to the steep decline in
the performance of our cornerbacks, and Donnie is taking the
fall.
This move may have something to do with the
team wanting to bring in Mel
Tucker of the Cleveland Browns as new DC.
Mel's expertise is in the secondary and I believed from the
start that if he came Donnie would go. Well, Donnie's gone,
and I wouldn't be too surprised if we got word in the next
few weeks that the team has hired Tucker. This is purely
speculation on my part, but it makes perfect sense.
1/21/09
THE CASE FOR PICKING
EIGHTH
The Jaguars had pick
number 26 last year and traded all the way up to number 8 in order
to draft rookie Derrick Harvey in the first round. Now, they'll have
the number eight overall pick again courtesy of a 5-11 record. The
Front Office debacle that was the 2008 Jacksonville Jaguars has
already claimed it's prize victim... James Shack Harris. Shack's
departure has opened up the door for one of the organization's "old
hats". Gene Smith has worked his way up through the Jaguars'
organization and is more than deserving of this opportunity. He has
earned it, and I for one look forward to his regime's first draft.
He is the epitome of how hard work can pay off.
One of the major issues
facing Gene is what to do with the number eight overall selection in
the 2009 NFL draft? Some are calling for him to trade down, others
are screaming for one of the top tackles to be taken with the pick,
and still others are crying for the team to just draft the best
available player at number 8 as a surefire way to fill one of our
many holes. I have to say I agree with the two latter choices,
either taking one of the top three tackles, or using the pick on
another position of need on the team.
The major complaint of
having a top draft pick is the money the team is required to invest
in the player. Well, the Jags inadvertently did themselves a major
favor by not cracking under Harvey's contract demands. They set the
bar low (relatively speaking) for this year's number 8 pick. The
team signed Harvey to 23.8 million dollar contract with possible
incentives reaching only 33 million. Only 17.5 million of that is
guaranteed money. When you compare that to Vernon Gholston's
contract of 5 years 50 million with 21 million guaranteed, or
Sedrick Ellis' deal worth 39 million with 19.5 million
guaranteed, the deal the Jags got looks awfully sweet.
So, the Jaguar's
frugality paid off and is a major reason the team can afford to pay
another number 8 pick this year should they choose to do so. The
other issue is that the Jaguar's hurt themselves by getting such a
good deal from the Ravens to jump up from 26. The Ravens got two 3rd
rounders and a 4th rounder to drop 18 spots. They then gave up a 3rd
and a 6th to jump back up to 18. So to drop 10 spots, they gained a
3 and a 4, and lost a 6th. Not that great of a deal.
Another trade example is
what NE did. They traded the number 7 pick and their 5th rounder for
the Saints number 10 pick and their 3rd rounder. That would seem to
be a much more feasible trade in my opinion, however, I don't think
you can justify making that trade if one of the three main LT are on
the board because I don't think the reward of one extra pick is
worth losing out on the chance to draft a fixture at LT.
All I'm saying is that
the Jaguar's can afford to pay another number 8 pick because of how
well they negotiated Harvey's contract. Plus, the trade value of a
top 10 pick isn't what it used to be and I doubt the Jags are going
to get anything more than what they gave the Ravens last year... I'm
not sure that's worth giving up one of the stalwart LTs in this
year's draft.
1/7/09
The Jaguars' season now is squarely in our rear
view mirror, and we can take an honest look at what we're
dealing with. I don't see us rebuilding, I see us reloading. The
overall strength of our roster is good, and our young players
are developing quite nicely. I'll focus on the defense, and
touch on the glaring need for a LT now, and the offense will be
next.
We need a strong LT to keep Garrard upright; that
has got to be priority number one. This is the hardest position
to fill besides QB, but our spot as the number 8 overall pick
puts us in prime position to draft one of the few OT who can
come in and start from the beginning, so we should be able to
solve that issue. Another option is to tie up a LT in free
agency as a stop-gap while the LT we draft learns. That would
also free us up to trade away the number eight pick and grab a
linemen farther back who may need some polish before they're
ready to shut down DE's.
We need a STRONG Safety. The Brian Williams
experiment is over, and he's no Bob Sanders (despite what Vic
says). Gerald Sensabaugh will likely leave in free agency and if
that happens, then SS jumps up the board as a major need for the
team. Reggie Nelson is a speed and coverage guy, not a run
stuffer. Brian Williams is more of a pass defender then a run
stuffer too, meaning we need another Sammy Knight (only younger
and faster... and capable of covering TE's).
After thinking about it, I don't think we have to
draft another CB. Next year we'll have Mathis, Williams,
Florence, and Scott Starks. Most of these players are
proto-typical cover two corner-backs (minus Scott Starks... he
has the speed to play man-to-man against most), and I expect
we'll see a major improvement when the team returns to this
style of defense. Our two DE's should help bring pressure next
year and that will help the CB's immensely.
Our Defensive line really only needs an interior
run-stuffer, a position best filled through the draft. I
wouldn't be surprised to see Big John traded in a fashion
similar to Stroud. He has a very high cap number and hasn't
produced up to his contract in the last 2 years. Some of you may
remember that he missed countless practices last season due to
"personal problems", and it was expected that he would return to
form this season. However, that hasn't been the case and he has
struggled at times. He has played well over the last month
though (The Jags shut down their opponents' running game the
last 4 contests of the year), which may increase his trade
value, or prompt the team to give him another season. On the
whole, his performance has been unsatisfactory for the last two
years.
Rob Meier hasn't played as well as he did last
year prior to penning an extension. Derek Landri has played
great, but he still isn't strong enough to be a force in the
run-game. He's got a great ability to pressure to QB from the DT
spot though, something that many interior linemen can't do. He
was clearly an excellent 5th round pick, and you have to love
anyone that comes out of Notre Dame.
Don't forget about our mammoth of a "jar on the
shelf" Theo Horracks. He spent the season on IR, but he is a
huge run-stopping DT we signed as a UDFA and holds a lot of
promise. Our interior DT's must be our focus! If Terrence Cody
comes out (which I'm betting he will) then I would have no
problem trading back a few spots to try and draft him. Stop the
run and run the ball... that's how you win.
Reggie Hayward has been one of the team's top
performers at DE and has built a solid rapport with rookie DE
Derrick Harvey. Hayward will undoubtedly be back both for
his tutelage of Harvey, and his ability to play run or pass.
Paul Spicer hasn't played as well this season either, but his
versatility (he can play DE or DT) will get him another year.
Harvey and Groves are developing quite well, and
Derrick Harvey has actually been performing much better than
most have given him credit for. As of Dec.12 he was only one
behind Dwight Freeney and tied with Mario Williams in QB
pressures. This was prior to his last three games, including the
game against Baltimore where he registered 2 sacks.
AFC South QB pressures (with
sacks)
Dwight Freeney, 25
(9.5)
Mario Williams, 24
(11)
Derrick Harvey, 24
(1.5)
Tony Brown, 21
(3.5)
Paul Spicer, 20
(3.5)
Albert Haynesworth,
19 (8.5)
Kyle Vanden Bosch,
18 (4.5)*
Reggie Hayward, 17
(1.5)
Rob Meier, 17 (2)
Jevon Kearse, 15
(2.5)
Robert Mathis 14,
(11.5)
So, maybe some of you have been a little to hard
on the guy, blaming him for the team's failures when he has been
improving by leaps and bounds. Need more convincing? Read
This.
Reggie Hayward had this to say about Harvey's
development.
QUOTE:
"He has the ability to be a
great player," fellow starting defensive end Reggie Hayward
said. "He's learning to let the game come to him instead of
trying to force things."
"He used to be really quiet in
the start, but now he's asking questions," Hayward said.
"He's evolving his game. I don't mean physically, because
he's already there. I mean he's evolving mentally. The
game's starting to slow down for him."
Harvey admits that he may have
forced his play a bit during the start of the season.
QUOTE
It is evident that Harvey is beginning to feel at
ease with the team. He's got a mentor in Hayward and he is
asking lots of questions, which highlights his desire to
improve. I have no doubt that he will continue his strong push
from the end of this season into next year. If he can continue
to create pressure, it opens up all the possibilities of our
defense. A new co-ordinator is going to walk into a very
talented defense next season and I can't wait.
12/19/08
I was re-watching the game against Green Bay last
week and made a few observations I thought deserved mention. The
Jaguars clearly are playing to win, and that is a huge statement
considering the letdown this season has become. Forget that
trash about tanking to get a good draft pick. Just ask
Herm Edwards why you play the game. I
bet he'll tell you. We get 48 hours (TV time) of
football guaranteed to us each year, and I demand the best
effort possible from my team every minute of that time. It's why
we watch, but more importantly, it is why
we love sports.
If the team can turn it around and go 7-9, it
gives us a much brighter outlook on the future. There were quite
a few things that didn't seem to go our way all season, and it
has cost us. The missed FGs, the injuries, the needless
turnovers, the shooting of a player, the locker-room infighting,
the incorporation of a new defensive scheme, the loss of coaches
to other teams... All of it hurt more than we thought. However,
if we can turn it around and beat two playoff contenders
back-to-back, then I think it shows we aren't far off our mark
of being a playoff caliber team.
Last Sunday's game against a much-maligned, but
very talented Packers team showed us that there a quite a few
players who realize they are on the hot seat. Dennis Northcutt
clearly realizes he's in danger of being cut in the offseason
and is desperately trying to secure his roster spot for next
year. Our WR corps has been the bane of this teams existence for
far too long. Reggie Williams will have to turn out record
breaking games in the next two contests, or the team will
undoubtedly opt out of his final contract year. He knows this
and we'll likely see his best effort. 2 games with 8-10 catches
and 2 TD might be enough to save his job, but even that is
unlikely.
George Wrighster is another player who I don't
see having a future as a Jaguar. He's scheduled to earn $950,000
next season, and Marcedes Lewis and Greg Estandia have closed
the significant gap in blocking ability that once existed
between Wrighster and the rest of the TE's. George Wrighster is
a Kyle Brady clone. He has sure hands and rarely drops a pass,
can block like a guard, but is by far the slowest of our 4 TE's.
George is another player who must turn out major performances in
the last two games if he has any hope of keeping his job at a
salary 3 times as high as Estandia's.
Khalif Barnes is a guy I wouldn't mind resigning
as a back-up tackle, but the team is obviously going to let him
test free-agency. Expect a complete overhaul on the offensive
line. The only two linemen who are secure as starters are Uche
Nwari and Tony Pashos, everyone else is auditioning for a
back-up role or possibilities with other franchises. Ideally,
the Jags would want to resign Meester, but it may not be in the
cards for the aging center. The question is, can the Front
Office find an adequate replacement for him in the offseason at
a cheaper price. He's good, but not as good as he once was, and
that is exactly why you replace guys.
Defensive Line is another area of concern. While
watching the Green Bay game again, I noticed quite a few bright
spots, but some concerning trends as well.
Derrick Harvey, played very well in my opinion.
He was often double teamed on run plays to his side, and he held
his ground (your job when being double teamed), and on a
few occasions forced the opposing blockers back. I repeat, he
can play the run well. For the first time, I saw consistent pass
rush moves employed by Harvey to get to the QB. He had a spin
move, a dive move, he executed his stunts flawlessly (something
he had struggled with all season), and most importantly, he used
his hands very well to keep the opposing linemen from locking on
with their blocks. He has improved and I think he'll be much
better next season. It was nice to see something other than a
bull rush or an outside move.
Rob Meier is inconsistent and hasn't played up to
his contract extension. If John Henderson is playing well, then
Rob plays well because the opponents focus on Big John. I
haven't liked what I've seen from Meier lately. Tony Mc Daniel
is now on IR so he's completely out of the mix. Quentin Groves
is fast, explosive, and too small to play DE against the run. He
must bulk up in the offseason or teams will continue to exploit
his lack of size and inability to hold the point.
Reggie Hayward is a veteran who knows change is
coming and can see the writing on the wall. He's playing for a
roster spot next year and has really come on in the past month.
If he continues to make plays he'll continue to be a Jag. Paul
Spicer is in my Dog-House. He supposedly went to offseason
training to improve his pass rushing abilities, and he hasn't
done squat. He's old and really poses no threat in the pass game
anymore. He is strong against the run, but not as strong as he
used to be (notice a trend forming here?). In my opinion he's
another player who is likely to be released unless he shows he's
worth keeping. All of these players deserve to be kept under a
watchful eye over the next two weeks. It may be their last as
Jaguars.
-Collin Streetman
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