With the NFL Draft quickly approaching,
the fans have become charged with
numerous scenarios involving the #1
pick, which many believe will decide the
destination of Heisman winner Reggie
Bush. You’ll hear a lot of “experts”
throwing out key terms like “strength of
schedule” and making seemingly random
predictions about where teams will end
up, but never actually explain where
they got the info or how they know what
they do. Well, after two days of
careful study and hard work, what I’ve
come up with is a pretty expansive look
at the worst 5 teams in the league, and
where they stand in the battle for #1.
First listed are each team, and their
record obviously; followed by their
schedule this season along with each
team’s record. Those records are
combined into their Strength of
Schedule, which is determined by
dividing the wins by the number of games
they’ve played. Because each team will
finish with 256 games against, we can
just use the number of wins to determine
the pick order. After that is the games
that matter in Week 17 for each team, a
star next to a team’s name means a win
by that squad will add a win to the wins
against; two stars means they’re in
division, and therefore add 2 wins
(because they appear twice on the
schedule). The range is,
mathematically, the least to max amount
of wins that can be added to their SOS,
in cases where they’ve played both
teams, only one can win, therefore only
one point can be added. Best case is
what the best actual outcome would be
for the teams in Week 17.
Houston
2-13
Buffalo 5-10
Pittsburgh 10-5
Cincinnati 11-4
Tennessee 4-11
Seattle 13-2
Indianapolis 13-2
Cleveland 5-10
Jacksonville 11-4
Indianapolis 13-2
Kansas City 9-6
St. Louis 5-10
Baltimore 6-9
Tennessee 4-11
Arizona 5-10
Jacksonville 11-4
San Francisco 3-12
Present wins against: 128/240
Arizona* at Indianapolis**
Baltimore* at Cleveland*
Buffalo* at N.Y. Jets
Cincinnati* at Kansas City*
Detroit at Pittsburgh*
Seattle* at Green Bay
Houston at San Francisco*
Tennessee** at Jacksonville**
St. Louis* at Dallas
Range: 5-11/16
best case:
Arz > Ind
Nyj > Buf
Det > Pit
GB
> Sea
Dal > Stl
SF
> Hou
=
6 pts
New Orleans 3-12
Carolina 10-5
NY
Giants 10-5
Minnesota 8-7
Buffalo 5-10
Green Bay 3-12
Atlanta 8-7
St. Louis 5-10
Miami 8-7
Chicago 11-4
New England 10-5
NY
Jets 3-12
Tampa Bay 10-5
Atlanta 8-7
Carolina 10-5
Detroit 5-10
Tampa Bay 10-5
Present wins against: 124/240
N.Y. Giants* at Oakland
Buffalo* at N.Y. Jets*
Carolina** at Atlanta**
Detroit* at Pittsburgh
Miami* at New England*
New Orleans at Tampa Bay**
Seattle at Green Bay*
Chicago* at Minnesota*
St. Louis* at Dallas
Range: 5-11/16
best case:
Oak > Nyg
Pit > Det
Sea > GB
Dal > Stl
TB
> NO
= 7 pts
NY Jets
3-12
Kansas City 9-6
Miami 8-7
Jacksonville 11-4
Baltimore 6-9
Tampa Bay 10-5
Buffalo 5-10
Atlanta 8-7
San Diego 9-6
Carolina 10-5
Denver 12-3
New Orleans 3-12
New England 10-5
Oakland 4-11
Miami 8-7
New England 10-5
Buffalo 5-10
Present wins against: 128/240
Denver* at San Diego*
N.Y. Giants at Oakland*
Baltimore* at Cleveland
Buffalo** at N.Y. Jets
Carolina* at Atlanta*
Cincinnati at Kansas City*
Miami** at New England**
New Orleans* at Tampa Bay*
Tennessee at Jacksonville*
Range: 5-11/16
Best case:
Ten > Jax
Cin > KC
Nyg > Oak
Cle > Bal
Buf > Nyj
=
7 pts
Green Bay 3-12
Detroit 5-10
Cleveland 5-10
Tampa Bay 10-5
Carolina 10-5
New Orleans 3-12
Minnesota 8-7
Cincinnati 11-4
Pittsburgh 10-5
Atlanta 8-7
Minnesota 8-7
Philadelphia 6-9
Chicago 11-4
Detroit 5-10
Baltimore 6-9
Chicago 11-4
Seattle 13-2
Present wins against: 130/240
Baltimore* at Cleveland*
Carolina* at Atlanta*
Cincinnati* at Kansas City
Detroit** at Pittsburgh*
New Orleans* at Tampa Bay*
Seattle* at Green Bay
Chicago** at Minnesota**
Washington at Philadelphia*
Range: 6-10/16
best case:
KC
> Cin
Pit > Det
Was > Phi
GB
> Sea
=
7 pts
San
Francisco 3-12
St. Louis 5-10
Philadelphia 6-9
Dallas 9-6
Arizona 5-10
Indianapolis 13-2
Washington 9-6
Tampa Bay 10-5
NY
Giants 10-5
Chicago 11-4
Seattle 13-2
Tennessee 4-11
Arizona 5-10
Seattle 13-2
Jacksonville 11-4
St. Louis 5-10
Houston 2-13
Present wins against: 131/240
N.Y. Giants* at Oakland
Arizona** at Indianapolis*
New Orleans at Tampa Bay*
Seattle** at Green Bay
Houston* at San Francisco
Tennessee* at Jacksonville*
Chicago* at Minnesota
Washington* at Philadelphia*
St. Louis** at Dallas*
Range: 4-12/16
best case:
Oak > Nyg
Ind > Arz
NO
> TB
GB
> Sea
Min > Chi
Dal > Stl
Hou > SF
=
5 pts
The following are two
separate looks at the schedule for Week
17, so you can compare what one team
needs to happen with the others. In the
first, if the team is in parentheses
next to a team that is playing, the that
team is hoping the playing team wins.
Seeing as how poor that description is,
here’s an example: Cincinnati (Jets) at
Kansas City (Packers). In this case, NY
is hoping Cinci wins, and GB hopes KC
wins. If it has something like (Deuce-
Texans) next to the games, it means that
a win by either team would give Houston
a win in SOS, Double Deuce means either
winning would give them 2 wins. Any
other special cases are noted. Also,
it’d obviously be beneficial for the
teams attempting to get the #1 for them
to lose next week, even though it’d add
at least a win to their SOS, but that
was really too obvious to add.
Denver at San Diego (Deuce- Jets)
N.Y. Giants (Jets) at Oakland (Saints,
49ers)
*
1, 2 Arizona (Texans, 1 pt)
(49ers, 2 pt) at Indianapolis (Texans, 2
pt) (49ers, 1 pt)
Baltimore at Cleveland (Jets) (Deuce-
Texans, Packers)
Buffalo at N.Y. Jets (Texans) (Deuce-
Saints)
Carolina at Atlanta (Deuce- Jets, Packers) (Double Deuce-
Saints)
Cincinnati (Jets) at Kansas City
(Packers) (Deuce- Texans)
*
3 Detroit (Texans) (Packers,
2 pts) at Pittsburgh (Saints) (Packers 1
pt)
Miami at New England (Double Deuce-
Jets) (Deuce- Saints)
New Orleans at Tampa Bay (Deuce- Jets,
Packers)
*
4 Seattle (Saints) at Green
Bay (Texans, 49ers)
Houston at San Francisco
Tennessee (Jets) at Jacksonville (Double
Deuce- Texans)
Chicago at Minnesota (49ers) (Deuce-
Saints) (Double Deuce- Packers)
Washington (Green Bay) at Philadelphia
(Deuce- 49ers)
* 5 St. Louis (49ers, 2 pts)
at Dallas (Saints, Texans) (49ers, 1 pt)
1.
If Arizona wins, Houston gets 1 win
against, if Indy wins they get 2.
2.
If Arizona wins, San Francisco gets 2
wins against, if Indy wins they get 1.
3.
If Detroit wins, Green Bay gets 2 wins
against, if Pittsburgh wins they get 1.
4.
If Seattle wins, San Francisco gets 2
wins against because they played them
twice.
5.
If St. Louis wins, San Francisco gets 2
wins against, if Dallas wins they get 1.
or
in a more User Friendly form:
Denver at San Diego
If
Denver wins: Jets: 1 Saints:
0 Texans: 0 49ers: 0
Packers: 0
If
San Diego wins: Jets: 1 Saints:
0 Texans: 0 49ers: 0
Packers: 0
N.Y. Giants at Oakland
If
New York wins: Jets: 0 Saints:
1 Texans: 0 49ers: 1
Packers: 0
If
Oakland wins: Jets: 1 Saints:
0 Texans: 0 49ers:
Packers: 0
Arizona at Indianapolis
If
Arizona wins: Jets: 0 Saints:
0 Texans: 1 49ers: 2
Packers: 0
If
Indianapolis wins: Jets: 0
Saints: 0 Texans: 2 49ers:
1 Packers: 0
Baltimore at Cleveland
If
Baltimore wins: Jets: 1 Saints:
0 Texans: 1 49ers: 0
Packers: 1
If
Cleveland wins: Jets: 0 Saints:
0 Texans: 1 49ers: 0
Packers: 1
Buffalo at N.Y. Jets
If
Buffalo wins: Jets: 2 Saints:
1 Texans: 1 49ers: 0
Packers: 0
If
New York wins: Jets: OUT Saints:
1 Texans: 0 49ers: 0
Packers: 0
Carolina at Atlanta
If
Carolina wins: Jets: 1 Saints:
2 Texans: 0 49ers: 0
Packers: 1
If
Atlanta wins: Jets: 1 Saints:
2 Texans: 0 49ers: 0
Packers: 1
Cincinnati at Kansas City
If
Cincinnati wins: Jets: 0 Saints:
0 Texans: 1 49ers: 0
Packers: 1
If
Kansas City wins: Jets: 1
Saints: 0 Texans: 1 49ers:
0 Packers: 0
Detroit at Pittsburgh
If
Detroit wins: Jets: 0 Saints:
1 Texans: 0 49ers: 0
Packers: 2
If
Pittsburgh wins: Jets: 0 Saints:
0 Texans: 1 49ers: 0
Packers: 1
Miami at New England
If
Miami wins: Jets: 2 Saints: 1
Texans: 0 49ers: 0
Packers: 0
If
New England wins: Jets: 2 Saints:
1 Texans: 0 49ers: 0
Packers: 0
New Orleans at Tampa Bay
If
New Orleans wins: Jets: 1
Saints: OUT Texans: 0
49ers: 0 Packers: 1
If
Tampa Bay wins: Jets: 1 Saints:
2 Texans: 0 49ers: 0
Packers: 1
*Seattle at Green Bay
If
Seattle wins: Jets: 0 Saints: 0
Texans: 1 49ers: 1
Packers: 1
If
Green Bay wins: Jets: 0 Saints:
1 Texans: 0 49ers: 0
Packers: OUT
Houston at San Francisco
If
Houston wins: Jets: 0 Saints:
0 Texans: 0 (move to 3-13)
49ers: 1 Packers: 0
If
San Francisco wins: Jets: 0
Saints: 0 Texans: 1 49ers:
OUT Packers: 0
Tennessee at Jacksonville
If
Tennessee wins: Jets: 0 Saints:
0 Texans: 2 49ers: 0
Packers: 0
If
Jacksonville wins: Jets: 1
Saints: 0 Texans: 2 49ers:
0 Packers: 0
Chicago at Minnesota
If
Chicago wins: Jets: 0 Saints:
1 Texans: 0 49ers: 1
Packers: 2
If
Minnesota wins: Jets: 0 Saints:
1 Texans: 0 49ers: 0
Packers: 2
Washington at Philadelphia
If
Washington wins: Jets: 0 Saints:
0 Texans: 0 49ers: 1
Packers: 0
If
Philadelphia wins: Jets: 0
Saints: 0 Texans: 0 49ers:
1 Packers: 1
St. Louis at Dallas
If
St. Louis wins: Jets: 0 Saints:
1 Texans: 1 49ers: 2
Packers: 0
If
Dallas wins: Jets: 0 Saints:
0 Texans: 0 49ers: 1
Packers: 0
That’s the best I can do. If
you go over it closely, you’ll notice that
the lead New Orleans has is nearly
insurmountable, meaning that it would take
absolutely every break possible next week
for the Jets or Houston to catch them.
Also, while SF or GB has the same record as
the Jets and Saints, it would take them both
winning along with a Houston win and a few
breaks in terms of the other games to even
give them an opportunity at #1. Of course,
it goes without saying that any team besides
Houston winning knocks them out of the race
for #1 completely, the Texans beating SF
would mean a #3 pick, at least that’s how it
appears for the moment. If you have any
questions, or especially if you noticed any
mistakes, please email me at
charring21@yahoo.com
