There are 4 teams that could make it to the Super Bowl from the NFC: Atlanta, Carolina, Minnesota and Philadelphia. Could a dark-horse emerge? Could of one of the top 4 falter? Sure. But not likely. Here is the NFC preview.

(Like the AFC preview, I am not going to predict records because of the math. I hate math. So I will just list order of finish, playoff teams, and eventual conference champ, as well as Super Bowl Champ).

NFC West

1^st. St. Louis Rams. The best thing to happen to Mike Martz was the decline of Marshall Faulk, and the ascent of Stephen Jackson. If the pre-season is a harbinger of things to come, the Rams will be more balanced in their attack then they have been in the past. Now, Martz is not going to become Marty Schottenheimer, but he will employ a power-running attack more often than he has in the past. This will benefit the passing game, and should reduce turnovers. Defensively, the Rams will be adequate. They’ve looked very quick this pre-season, but there are questions in the secondary and DL depth. Regardless, the Rams will be the NFC West Champs, and the cries for Martz’s head will subdue.

2^nd. Seattle Seahawks. Remember when Mike Holmgren was a great coach that was destined to become the Offensive Version of Bill Parcells? When Holmgren took over the Seahawks in 1999, it was a question of when not if the Seahawks would get to the Super Bowl. Well, six seasons later, Seahawk fans are still waiting at the Super Bowl bus stop, and bus is nowhere in sight. The main reason the Seahawks haven’t gotten there is because unlike in Green Bay, Holmgren doesn’t have a Reggie White type player in Seattle. Seattle has some good talent in defense in Marcus Tubbs, Michael Boulware, and Marcus Trufant, but they don’t have anyone who could change a game, or lead a team like Reggie White. Seattle will once again be a good offensive team, and a decent defensive team, but they are missing a special player – really on both sides of the ball that will keep them from having any kind of post-season success.

3^rd. Arizona Cardinals. Like Jacksonville last year, many pundits are picking the Cardinals to make the playoffs and be the “surprise playoff” team of 2005. Like some of that 3D art, I don’t see it. Arizona should be improved, but even in the weak NFC, I don’t them competing for a playoff spot. Last year Warner’s yards per attempt was down 1 yard (7.4 to 8.4), he had only 6 TD passes in 10 games, and has a passer rating 10 points lower than his career average (86 to 96). Teams are going to pressure Warner from the corner and up the middle, and he will get blown up by week 5. And McCown nor Navarre aren’t going to be able to do anything positive. Then there’s everyone’s darling rookie RB pick this year: JJ Arrington, the rookie from Cal. Again, not buying it. Arrington averaged less than 3 yards per carry in the preseason, which is dreadful. I’m not saying he has to light it up in August, as it is the pre-season, but you want to see something that would demonstrate that he can make some plays, and he didn’t. Defensively, the Cardinals are among the conference’s best with stud playmakers in Bert Berry, Darnell Docket, Carlos Dansby, Adrian Wilson, and the rookie CB from The U, Antrell Rolle. However, the defense will not be able to carry this team, as it’s not as good as the 2000 Ravens. Anyway, after everything is said and done, Arizona will likely win some games they shouldn’t, but will lose more than currently predicted, and will miss the playoffs by at least 2 games.

4^th. San Francisco. How can it be that the 49ers, one of the gold standards of professional sports, are quickly becoming one of the biggest jokes of the NFL? Is it owner John York’s commitment to thriftiness, which leads to no big Free Agency signings, a shortsighted coaching search, and an ostensible focus on the bottom line ahead of talent acquisition? Yeah, partly. They’ve also had some horrid drafts over the last 4 years that would make Dallas’ drafts from 1996-2001 look good. In regards to the 2005 draft, top pick Alex Smith is not yet ready to step on the field, as he was beaten out by the relentlessly mediocre Tim Rattay. Their running game is uninspired with Kevan  Barlow and Frank Gore. Their WRs couldn’t catch a cold, as 2^nd year player Rashaun Woods looks destined for Bustville, and 3rd year player Brandon Lloyd didn’t live up to expectations last year. Lloyd is an enigma, as he was expected to break out last year, but had only 43 catches for 565 yards. Maybe that was due to the abysmal quarterbacking. Also, Arnaz Battle is expected to step up, but again, without good a good quarterback, how can a WR step up? The Niners are better on defense than they are on offense, but they will wear down as they play too many plays, because the SF offense won’t be able to stay of the field. All in all, it leads to a 3^rd straight losing season for the 9ers, which seems crazy, as they were so good for so long.

AFC South

1^st. Carolina.  This time I totally agree with all the experts who are predicting the Panthers to be back in the Super Bowl hunt. The Panthers have all the key ingredients to make a Super Bowl cake: A top QB (Delhomme). A very good running game (Foster & Davis). A playmaking wide receiver (Steve Smith). A top LT (Gross). An elite CB (Ken Lucas). And an elite pass-rushing DE (Julius Peppers). This is the Rick Gosselin formula for winning a Super Bowl Championship, and Carolina has all bases covered. In fact, I’ll go so far as to say that Peppers will not only contend for Defensive MVP, but will contend for League MVP too. The Panthers return a ton of talented starters on offense and defense, and coach John Fox is one of the best in the league. Delhomme will make lots of plays with the fiery Smith, and the underrated Keary Colbert. The running game is deep, talented and determined with Davis and Foster. The offensive line is tough. But the best unit on the team is the defensive line, which is arguably the best in the NFL. The Panthers might not lead the league in yards given up, or even points against, but they will frequently make the kind of catalytic plays that lead to victory. Ultimately, I think Delhomme’s moxie combined with the superiority of the DL will allow Carolina to edge out Atlanta for the NFC South crown.

2^nd. Atlanta. If Vick stays healthy, then the Falcons will be right there in the mix for the NFC Championship. The offense is a bit of a conundrum. The running game is the best in the league, but the passing game is sub-par. Vick receives a lot of criticism for not evolving as a passer, which is wrong. Last year I wrote that not only was Vick ill suited to Offensive Coordinator Greg Knapp’s version of the Bill Walsh Offense, but so were the rest of the skill players. I wrote specifically that Peerless Price was not a good fit with the Bill Walsh Offense, and I was proven right as he was released last week and signed by Dallas. Will Michael Jenkins and Roddy White be able to pick up and succeed in the horizontal passing game? To me it’s a lot to ask a second-year player and a rookie to be productive in a complex offensive scheme. And let’s get back to Vick. His throwing skills are far more tailored to the vertical passing game. He has an absolute cannon of an arm, and excels at throwing downfield on the outs, skinny posts, go-routes, etc. The quick-strike horizontal attack is not a good fit for his passing ability. It has nothing to do with his ability to intellectually comprehend the nuances of the offense; it has to do with his natural ability to make laser-like throws 15-50 yards downfield. The defense is the main reason the Falcons could conceivably be a Super Bowl team. Free Agent LB Ed Hartwell was a great signing, and Hartwell will bring the fiery emotional aspect that was missing from the Atlanta defense. Also, DeAngelo Hall will be a year better and a year more experienced. But without changes to the offensive scheme, this team will trail the Panthers.

3^rd. New Orleans. What more can be said about the horrific tragedy of Hurricane Katrina that hasn’t been written and said already? It is way beyond tragic, and in many ways incomprehensible. There are two schools of thought regarding the Saints’ season: 1. That they will be overwhelmed by playing all 16 games on the road, while at the same time trying to deal with their own personal situations regarding the tragedy. 2. The Saints’ reaction to the tragedy will be to galvanize and have one of those truly magical seasons that inspire a team, a city and even a nation. Sadly, I think the former is the more likely scenario, and alas, the Saints’ enormous talent on paper will be undone by the sheer enormity of the situation. On paper, the Saints have loads of talent on offense and defense, but it won’t be of much help as they struggle to get through the season. I’m not a Saints fan, but I hope I’m wrong.

4^th. Tampa Bay. Like the Texans, I don’t really have a read on this team. I know that Michael Clayton is a stud, and that the defense should at least be adequate. However, who’s the QB? Is it Brian Griese who has more personalities than a girl I briefly dated in 2000 that my friends and I nicknamed “The Mindbender”? Will we see the Brian Griese that effectively manages the game, and makes plays when need be, or will we see the Brian Griese that inexplicably, and unpredictably implodes for long stretches at a time? Could Chris Simms, who had a really good pre-season finally emerge this season, or is he to remain a career backup? I have no idea. And neither do you. What I do know is that their schedule is tough with early trips to Minnesota, Green Bay, and New York (Jets), and with late trips to Carolina and New England. And they don’t have “an easy stretch” at any time this season. Too many questions add up to too few victories. Maybe Tampa will be a surprise entrant in the Matt Leinart Lottery?

NFC North

1^st. Minnesota. I don’t believe the team added by subtracting in their off-season trade of Randy Moss. However, they still have one of the best QBs in the league, depth and talent at RB, and capable WRs, some of whom like Burleson and Williamson are just dying to make people forget about Moss. Defensively, they’ve added Fred Smoot, Darren Sharper, and Sam Cowart, and that should improve a weakness from 2004, specifically in the secondary with Smoot and Sharper. The NFC North is the weakest division in the league, and Minnesota should have no trouble cruising to a division title, and perhaps even home-field advantage. However, there is one ginormous caveat, and that is The Mike Tice Factor. Tice looks like the unholy offspring of Tony Soprano and The Dad from The Family Guy, and doesn’t appear much brighter. His game-time decisions are questionable to the point he should be testifying before some sort of sub-committee, and I think Tice will be the downfall of the team in the playoffs.

2^nd. Chicago. I’m not necessarily buying into the Kyle Orton hype, I just don’t think they’re that bad, and I believe Green Bay and Detroit are that bad. Chicago’s defense, which was putrid against the run last year, will be improved in that aspect, and their offense has to make strides at some point doesn’t it? The Bears’ running game could be very good with Jones and Benson, and the addition of Muhammed to a young receiving corps will pay some dividends in the passing game. However, despite finishing in 2^nd place in the NFC North, the Bears will be a non-descript team that hovers around .500 for the season. At least Bears fans will have an exciting QB controversy next year with Orton and Grossman.

3^rd. Detroit. Every year people expect the Lions to make improvements, and every year they end up in the top10 of the draft. This year they inexplicably took Mike Williams, which from a business standpoint is positively foolish. It’d be like a well-known restaurant chain coming out with “33 signature burgers”. Wait, that has happened. (Ruby Tuesday’s, whom I’ve never associated with having anything more than your garden variety happy-hour fare has introduced a seemingly endless parade of vomit inducing burgers, including the “surf and turf burger”, which is a regular hamburger with shrimp (?!). The hell is that? Who in their right mind, or even in their most inebriated mind wants to eat a burger with shrimp?). Anyway, the Lions now have 3 WRs taken in the top 10 in each of the last three drafts, which as I said is bad business. Is there a position right now that is more egocentric, and monetarily delusional than WR? If Solipsism is the belief that only the self can be proven to exist, is Hyper-Solipsism the belief that only a WR can proven to exist (particularly a wide-open WR)? How in the name of Wayne Fontes are the Lions going to able to afford all three WRs over the next 4-5 years? Tell me, Mr. Millen. And don’t get me started on Joey Harrington. I’ve composed 1,000 word emails to my friend Birddog on the shortcomings of his game. The defense for the Lions will be decent, and Kevin Jones should have 1400 yards and 8 TDs, but the Lions will fail to make the playoffs in year 4 of the Harrington era.

4^th. Green Bay. Peter King, John Madden and pretty much everyone else on TV heaves praise on Brett Favre like I heaved mulch into my front yard this past weekend. Despite the mind numbing praise, Favre continues to decline with boneheaded decisions, bad reads, and poor throws. Over the last two seasons, Favre has thrown 38 interceptions. To put that in perspective, Kerry Collins has thrown 36, Drew Bledsoe has thrown 28, Aaron Brooks has thrown 24, Kyle Boller has thrown 20, and even Jake Plummer has thrown 27. In other words, no QB has thrown more interceptions than Brett Favre. Not that I’m counting. Maybe the pattern won’t continue. Making matters worse will be the losses of Mike Wahle and Marco Rivera on the offensive line, which will not only affect Favre, but also Ahman Green. On the other side of the ball, the Packers are thin and not very talented...kinda like Nicole Ritchie. This could be Favre’s last year, and I don’t think it will end on a good note.

NFC East

1^st. Philadelphia. The Terrell Owens soap opera aside, the Eagles are still clearly the best team in the division. They’re perilously thin at RB, WR, and TE, but they have 2 of the 5 best offensive players in the league in McNabb and Owens, and that counts for a lot. The Eagles are strong in two very important areas: Offensive and Defensive Line. Their secondary and LBs are smart, fast, and physical. They also make big plays, and their Defensive Coordinator Jim Johnson can scheme with the best of the NFL. Whatever happened at the end of the Super Bowl still remains a mystery, and I would bet a million dollars that McNabb is going to do anything and everything to erase that memory from the public consciousness. Whether or not McNabb can delete that from everyone’s memory, though, will have to play out, but there is no doubt the Eagles will win the NFC East for the 4^th straight year. (People wonder when and not if Owens will go off again, but I don’t think he will.)

2^nd. Dallas Cowboys. This is more by default than it a true measure of where Dallas ranks in the NFC. Dallas has potential to be a really good team, but that would mean that 6^th round pick RT Rob Pettiti, 1^st  Round Pick OLB/DE DeMarcus Ware, 1^st Round Pick DE Marcus Spears, and 3^rd year Player, and first time starter Keith Davis all pan out. That’s a lot of positives to ask for in one season. And I haven’t even mentioned Drew Bledsoe who’s not expected to carry the team, but will surely have those moments where his impulses take over, and that’s never a good thing. The Cowboys are deeper than Marianna’s Trench at RB with Julius Jones, Anthony Thomas, Marion Barber and Tyson Thompson, and that will lead to a very productive running game. The receivers look good on paper, but they’re older and injury prone. TE Jason Witten is an emerging star. So the offense looks like it should be awesome, but somehow I have a feeling the team will still struggle to score more than 20 points a game. Defensively, the Cowboys will be up and down as they employ the 3-4. They have a lot of talent, but also a lot of youth, which means there will be mistakes. The defense will be particularly vulnerable to TEs running down the middle of the field, and RBs running wide on the weak side. However, the Cowboys defense will gain a lot of momentum in the second half of the season, as the young players adjust to the NFL. Rookie DeMarcus Ware flashed some serious potential in the pre-season, and could be a rookie defensive player of the year candidate. And people are sleeping on 2^nd round pick LB Kevin Burnett who could also be a playmaking force in the second stanza. Despite the uncertainty, the Cowboys will finish 2^nd in the NFC east.

3^rd. Washington Redskins. The opinions on the Redskins vary, and I’m thinking this is a 7-9, 8-8 or even a 9-7 team depending on the play of whoever is the QB. Writers like Len Pastabelly, Pete Prisco, and Dr. Z have all clubbed the Redskins and penciled them in for a disastrous season. It’s obvious that at least some of these writers have a personal vendetta against Daniel Snyder’s Redskins. In Pastabelly’s case, I’ve heard that he has it in for the skins because he found out about Gibbs’ hiring, and was lied to by Skins officials when he tried to confirm it, only to be scooped by Washington Post writer Mark Maske. I have no idea is this is true; it’s just what I’ve heard. Regardless, it shouldn’t cloud the judgment of people who get paid to report about, and analyze teams. Back to the team. I think the Redskins ground attack will be an absolute force, as Clinton Portis has looked like a monster this preseason. He’s put on 20 pounds, but has lost none of the speed or elusiveness that makes him special. John Jansen returns healthy (even though he recently broke his thumb; a mere scratch for an old-school player like Jansen), and Chris Samuels appears to be reinvigorated. The Skins WRs are nothing special, and if teams are in fact able to stop Portis, I think Santana Moss and David Patten will be hard-pressed to take the pressure of the running game, and that’s where the QB comes in. In the most ironic of ironies, fans are now calling upon Brunell, he of the 2-yard pass, after Ramsey’s less than stellar preseason. Last season, fans were ready to draw and quarter Brunell for his unyielding display of noodle-armed tosses, but now, they want him back in the lineup. Be careful what you wish for, Washington. Ramsey should be just fine if he can limit the mistakes. I think the Skins take a step back defensively. Not so much because of their loss of personnel, but because their status last year was a bit of a mirage. Teams didn’t aggressively attack Washington’s defense because they knew they could play very conservatively on offense, and still come out with a win. In other words, and yeah this is circular logic, the Skins offense last year was viewed as threatening as Toby Maguire in boxing gloves, and hence, teams played to that offensive weakness by playing to avoid mistakes. And it was successful, as even though Washington was 3^rd in the league in yards given up, they weren’t in the top ten in terms of sacks and interceptions. If Drew Bledsoe proves his critics correct, and Ramsey proves his wrong, then the Skins will be the 2^nd place team in the NFC East, but for right now, I think both Bledsoe and Ramsey play well enough to silence the naysayers, and hence, the Skins are a very close 3^rd.

4^th. New York Giants. Tiki Barber is a year older, and I don’t buy the Brandon Jacobs hype. Eli Manning is going to be good, but until his OL is stable and talented, he will struggle. Amani Toomer is also a year older, and will not benefit from the signing of part-time playmaker Plaxico Burress. The Burress situation is a perfect example of The Alvin Harper Corollary. In 1995, Alvin Harper left the Cowboys to go play for Tampa, and received a huge contract. Several seasons later, Harper was washed up and out of the league having never come close to the type of numbers he produced in Dallas. Then there was Peerless Price who thrived in Buffalo with Eric Moulds only to be cut by Atlanta after two utterly underwhelming years. Now comes Burress. Burress was the perfect WR in Pittsburgh. He made plays, but he wasn’t asked to carry the WR corps. That was and is Hines Ward’s job. In New York, Burress will have to not only have to be the #1 WR, he’ll have to do so under the rabid scrutiny of the NY media and fans. Good luck, Plax. I see Plaxico succumbing to The Alvin Harper Corollary, and by 2007, he’ll be on a new team...probably the Raiders or Redskins. On the defensive side of the ball, Strahan is still an elite DE when healthy. Their LBs got a boost with free agent acquisition Antonio Pierce, but the secondary is mediocre at best. The Giants are a year away from competing for a playoff spot, and if they don’t solve their OL problems, it could be longer.

NFC Week1 Playoffs:

Atlanta at St. Louis

Dallas at Carolina

NFC Divisionals:

Atlanta at Minnesota

Carolina at Philadelphia

NFC Championship

Atlanta at Carolina

Super Bowl:

Indianapolis 27 Carolina 24.

Erik’s Recommendations:

Book: Hocus Pocus by Kurt Vonnegut. My personal favorite among Vonnegut’s extensive work. Basically a post-modern retelling of the trial of Socrates.

TV Show: Arrested Development. The show enters its 3^rd season, and it is the best comedy ever.