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What If?

By: Matt Swartz

1/1/06

   In my previous article, I discussed the possibility of the NFL instituting a draft lottery.  Based on the NBA and NHL systems, I devised a lottery process that would likely be used by the NFL if one were to be established. 
   While it all produced some very interesting scenarios, I kept wondering, "What if this were to really happen?  What would this year's draft look like?"  So, instead of wondering, I decided to make it happen. 
   I went ahead and completed a first-round mock draft based on my previous lottery suggestion, with the results of the drawing as follows:
 
1) NY Jets
2) Houston
3) San Francisco
4) Tennessee
5) Oakland
6) New Orleans
7) Green Bay
 
   While I'm on the subject, can you imagine the television ratings for an NFL Draft lottery drawing? It would be insane, not to mention the outcry of controversy over the Jets landing the number one pick.  People outside of New York still claim that the 1985 NBA lottery was fixed so the Knicks could land Patrick Ewing, and the guy didn't even win a championship. 
   Anyways, on to the mock draft.  Please note that draft position outside of the lottery was based on projected wins, with ties broken by strength of schedule (in other words, the same as it is currently).  Asterisks denote underclassmen.
 
 
  1. NY Jets – Reggie Bush, RB, USC**
With Curtis Martin nearing the end of his fine career, the Jets inject a shot of life into their backfield by drafting Bush.  This also allows Chad Pennington a chance to return as QB with some additional playmakers.  Bush is simply too talented to pass up, and will immediately give the Jets offense a boost in both the running and passing games. 
 
  1. Houston – D’Brickashaw Ferguson, T, Virginia
The Titans have lacked an adequate offensive tackle since their inception, and David Carr has been the victim.  Ferguson finally gives Houston a bookend tackle to protect Carr’s blindside and pave some lanes for the underrated Domanick Davis.
 
  1. San Francisco – A.J. Hawk, LB, Ohio St.
As difficult as it would be to pass on Leinart, the 49ers simply can’t invest that much money into QB’s in two straight drafts.  Hawk is the best defensive player in this draft, and could be a Ray Lewis-type playmaker in Mike Nolan’s defense. 
 
  1. Tennessee – Matt Leinart, QB, USC
Steve McNair clearly is on the downside of his career, and there is no way that the Titans could pass up the best QB prospect since Peyton Manning at #4.  Leinart also would re-unite with former offensive coordinator Norm Chow, while becoming the face of a struggling franchise.
 
  1. Oakland – Mario Williams, DE, NC State**
Williams has the size and athletic ability to be the next Julius Peppers, while Oakland has struggled to find a pass rusher.  This is a perfect fit for a D-line that is desperate for youth and athleticism, as well as instantly providing pass rushing ability.
 
  1. New Orleans – Vince Young, QB, Texas**
It seems more likely every day that Young will leave school, and New Orleans would be a perfect fit. Young has the potential to be the next Michael Vick and the Saints are desperate for someone to draw a crowd, especially with their future home in question.  Young could step in immediately to replace the struggling Aaron Brooks.
 
  1. Green Bay – Mathias Kiwanuka, DE, Boston College
The Packers D-line struggled all year, and Kiwanuka is an instant impact player who could step in immediately.  He has the size and athletic ability to improve both the run and pass defense for Green Bay.  Should be a dominating all-around end opposite Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila.
 
  1. St. Louis – Jimmy Williams, CB, Virginia Tech
The Rams defense has never caught up to high-powered offense, but Williams would be a good fit in the secondary.  His versatility allows him to play either corner or safety, and St. Louis could use help all over in the defensive backfield. 
 
  1. Detroit – Omar Jacobs, QB, Bowling Green**
Jacobs gets his shot to reverse the “QB curse” in Detroit.  The Lions are desperate for a playmaking QB who can utilize the assortment of talent they have already assembled at the offensive skill positions.  Jacobs has the skills to be the next Byron Leftwich. 
 
  1. Cleveland – Haloti Ngata, DT, Oregon**
Ngata is a near-perfect defensive tackle, who can both rush the passer and use his overpowering strength to clog up the running game.  The Browns D-line simply doesn’t have much talent, and Ngata could step right in at nose tackle in Romeo Crennel’s 3-4 defense.
 
  1. Arizona – Laurence Maroney, RB, Minnesota**
While the Cardinals might have bigger needs, their running game was flat-out terrible and finished dead last in the NFL.  Dennis Green is known to draft the best available player, and Maroney fits the bill.  He would be too good of a value for Arizona to pass up here.
 
  1. Buffalo – Vernon Davis, TE, Maryland**
Davis is a physical specimen at tight end, while Buffalo is in need of a security blanket for J.P. Losman, who struggled in his first year as a starter.  Davis could contribute immediately and would be a perfect complement to the young core of Losman, Willis McGahee and Lee Evans.
 
  1. Philadelphia – Tamba Hali, DE, Penn St.
The Eagles are in need of a quality defensive end to play opposite Jevon Kearse, and Hali would fit perfectly.  He is one of the most talented players in the draft, and despite being a bit raw, should develop into a dominant end. 
 
  1. Baltimore – Marcus McNeill, T, Auburn
McNeill probably could have been a top-10 pick last year, but went back to school and did not hurt his draft stock.  Not quite at the athletic level of Ferguson, but could still step in immediately and be a dominant right tackle.  Would be a perfect addition to help revitalize the Ravens rushing attack.
 
  1. Miami – Rodrique Wright, DT, Texas
Nick Saban is a defensive coach, and won’t pass on the opportunity to grab a defensive tackle with Wright’s athletic ability.  Wright draws frequent double and triple-teams, but still managed 46 tackles, 4.5 sacks and 15 hurries for Texas this season.  
 
  1. Minnesota – DeAngelo Williams, RB, Memphis
The Vikings running game has been a weak link since Robert Smith retired, despite numerous draft picks.  Williams will end those struggles, as he's arguably the best all-around running back in the draft.  Williams was unfortunate to end up in the same draft as Bush and Maroney, and the Vikings getting him at 16 would be a steal.
 
  1. Atlanta – Jonathan Scott, T, Texas
The Falcons offensive line could use some help, and Scott would be the perfect addition.  His athleticism will fit perfectly into the Falcons system, stepping in at either tackle spot to help block for Michael Vick.
 
  1. Kansas City – Chad Greenway, LB, Iowa
Greenway seems far too talented to last this far into the draft, but the Chiefs certainly wouldn’t complain.  Greenway would nearly complete their overhaul on defense, and give KC a loaded linebacking corps.
 
  1. Dallas – Santonio Holmes, WR, Ohio St.**
The Cowboys are lacking quality WR’s, and Holmes is the best available in this year’s draft.  Holmes is very similar to current Cowboy Terry Glenn, but could contribute immediately as a slot receiver.
 
  1. San Diego – DeMeco Ryans, LB, Alabama
With no top receiver prospect available, the Chargers add to their defense by taking one of the most athletic linebackers in the draft.  Ryans had an outstanding senior year, and could play inside or outside in the 3-4. 
 
  1. Denver (Wash) – Ashton Youboty, CB, Ohio St.**
The Broncos offense is loaded, but the defense is still a step behind.  Youboty is arguably the best cover corner in this year’s class and would be a great addition to Denver’s porous defensive backfield.
 
  1. Carolina – Marcedes Lewis, TE, UCLA
The Panthers have few needs to fill, and Lewis would have to be the best player available here.  While his run blocking needs work, his speed and hands make him nearly impossible to defend in the passing game.  Could be the next Tony Gonzalez. 
 
  1. Pittsburgh – Manny Lawson, DE/OLB, NC State
Lawson is a fantastic athlete and would be a perfect rush backer in a 3-4 defense.  The Steelers have lost some linebackers through free agency recently and could use an influx of youth.
 
  1. New England – Michael Huff, S, Texas
The Patriots have been using a patchwork defensive backfield for two seasons, but Huff could be an impact player at either safety position.  His versatility and speed would fit well into New England’s defensive system.
 
  1. Cincinnati – Claude Wroten, DT, LSU
Marvin Lewis is still filling some holes on the Bengals defense, and Wroten is one of the most athletic tackles in this year’s draft.  He has the speed and agility that the Bengals are looking for in an upgrade to the interior D-line.
 
  1. Tampa Bay – Max Jean-Gilles, G, Georgia
The Buccaneers are in need of improvement on the O-line, with injuries and age taking a toll.  Jean-Gilles is by far the best guard prospect this year, with an impressive combination of strength and athleticism.  He would be a good value this late, and could start immediately.
 
  1. NY Giants – Abdul Hodge, LB, Iowa
New York has been plugging in backups at linebacker all season, and it’s become evident that acquiring youth and speed will be an off-season priority.  Hodge provides both, as well as an instinctive sense for the game that made him a great collegiate middle linebacker.
 
  1. Chicago – Eric Winston, T, Miami (FL)
The Bears would be more than happy to take a chance on Winston, who might be the most athletic tackle in his class.  He has the potential to be a dominant, Kyle Turley-type player, but injuries have slowed him and remain a question mark. Chicago’s offense has been flat-out bad at times, and an upgrade on the O-line could only help.
 
  1. Jacksonville – Darryl Tapp, DE, Virginia Tech
Tapp is a pure pass-rushing defensive end, which is exactly what the Jaguars have been missing.  He may be a bit small to be an every-down end as a rookie, but has the frame to add muscle and is enough of an athlete that Jack Del Rio would find a way to use him.
 
  1. Denver – Broderick Bunkley, DT, Florida St.
The Broncos defensive line is a collection of former busts, and is in need of an upgrade.  Bunkley is an outstanding athlete, with agility and interior pass-rush skills.  Having already picked up Youboty earlier in the round, Denver would do well to add Bunkley to the D-line.
 
  1. Seattle – Derek Hagan, WR, Arizona St.
The Seahawks receiving corps has stepped up this season, but could still use an injection of youth.  Hagan has above-average speed, but is more of a possession receiver with excellent hands and body control.  Would be a good fit as a second or third wideout in the Seahawks offense.
 
  1. Indianapolis – Elvis Dumervil, DE/OLB, Louisville
Dumervil is a lightning-fast pass rusher in the mold of Dwight Freeney, but lacks the size to be an every-down defensive end.  Might end up as an outside linebacker in the NFL.  The Colts stress speed on defense, and Dumervil will bring that regardless of what position he is playing. 
 

 
 

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