FIRST ROUND ANALYSIS
1. Cleveland Browns – QB Baker Mayfield (Oklahoma)
Wow, no one saw this coming a couple of days ago. John Dorsey fooled us all. The Heisman Trophy winner is very competitive by nature and a leader on the field. He is an accurate QB with a quick release. He displays good ball placement. He is at his best throwing the ball on the run. He can extend plays and improvises really well. Mayfield is an undersized QB with above average arm strength. He is a bit of a gunslinger who struggles under pressure. He needs to improve his footwork. He throws primarily to his first read and wasn’t asked to work through his progressions on a regular basis. His overall numbers were inflated due to the spread offense that he played in.
2. New York Giants – RB Saquon Barkley (Penn State)
They showed commitment to Eli Manning here with this selection by not picking the future QB. Barkley was the No.1 RB on the board. He is a terrific athlete with great speed and homerun ability. He is a big-play threat. He is extremely elusive in the open field. He is also a dangerous receiver coming out of the backfield.
3. New York Jets (from Colts) – QB Sam Darnold (USC)
He was my number one QB in this NFL Draft. He is a mobile signal caller with the size and good arm strength. Darnold is accurate in the short and intermediate area. He displays terrific ball placement and good field vision. He extends plays and makes quick decisions. He is a leader and is clutch in key situations. He needs to improve his decision-making (22 INT’s and 14 lost fumbles) in 27 games as a two-year starter. I love his upside.
4. Cleveland Browns (from Texans) – CB Denzel Ward (Ohio State)
This was a position of need for the Browns. Ward is the best pure cover corner in the entire draft. The only drawback is his size, which might relegate him to play nickel corner at the next level. He is a terrific athlete with great speed. He is a smooth CB with excellent footwork and great change of direction skills. He is a physical player despite his size.
5. Denver Broncos – DE Bradley Chubb (NC State)
The Broncos stayed put and didn’t reach for the QB. He was clearly the number one pass rusher in this draft. Chubb has great size and quickness for the position. He is a good athlete and he is disruptive in the backfield. He is also a very good run defender with violent hands. However, he needs to improve his hand usage. Imagine the possibility of Miller and Chubb getting after the opposing QB’s next season.
6. Indianapolis Colts (from Jets) – OG Quenton Nelson (Notre Dame)
He was arguably the best player in this entire draft. Nelson is an all-around OG. He is dominant in the run game. He has terrific size and incredible strength. He finishes his blocks and overpowers his opponents at the point of attack. He shows excellent hand placement, sustains his blocks well and displays good knee bend.
7. Buffalo Bills (from Bucs) – QB Josh Allen (Wyoming)
It was expected that the Bills were going to move up in the draft and select one of the QB’s. They gave up two second round picks, but didn’t surrender their other first round selection. This is a risky pick. He is your classic boom or bust prospect. He has the heighest ceiling of any QB in this draft, but I doubt that he will ever reach his full potential. Allen has ideal size, great arm strength, large hands and terrific athleticism. However, he struggles with his accuracy (56% completion in college), his ball placement is shaky, he needs to improve his footwork and he stares down receivers.
8. Chicago Bears – LB Roquan Smith (Georgia)
Smith was my number one player on the board. He will play ILB in their 3-4 defense. He is a great athlete with sideline-to-sideline speed. His closing speed and angle pursuit are outstanding. He displays terrific instincts and changes directions with ease. He is a very good tackler. Durability concerns and size were the main concerns with him. He should be the leader of the defense for years to come.
9. San Francisco 49ers – OT Mike McGlinchey (Notre Dame)
In a weak OT class, he was the best player at his position. The 49ers went for the position of need. He has started a lot of games during his career. He is a tough, hard-nosed OL with good size and long arms. He is a technician who plays with proper knee bend. He needs to get a bit stronger and sustain his blocks better. He struggles with quicker speed rushers and commits mental mistakes. His future is at RT at the next level.
10. Arizona Cardinals (from Raiders) – QB Josh Rosen (UCLA)
The Cardinals got a bargain. They traded up from the No.15 spot and only gave up a third round and a fifth round pick in this year’s draft. They got their signal caller of the future. He is the most pro ready QB in this entire draft. Rosen displays great footwork, throws with great touch and has a quick release. He is an accurate QB who throws with excellent anticipation. There are questions about his durability, leadership and decision-making at times. This is a great pick for Steve Keim.
11. Miami Dolphins – S Minkah Fitzpatrick (Alabama)
The Alabama product has a good combination of size and speed. He is a very instinctive player with quick feet. He played slot corner at Alabama his junior season, but he projects best as a FS at the next level. He is versatile and could be used in a variety of roles.
12. Tampa Bay Bucs (from Bills via Bengals) – NT Vita Vea (Washington)
They brought in Jason Pierre-Paul and Vinny Curry in free agency. Now they get help for Gerald McCoy. He is a big DT with outstanding strength. He is also very athletic for his size. Vea occupies double teams and is stout against the run. He is powerful and uses his bull rush effectively. He needs to develop pass rush moves and be quicker off the ball.
13. Washington Redskins – DE/DT Da’Ron Payne (Alabama)
The Redskins selected his former teammate Jonathan Allen in the first round last year. Payne is a versatile DL who can play a number of positions. He excels as a run defender. Payne has tremendous strength, active hands and pretty good movement skills. He was a difference-maker for the Crimson Tide in the two biggest playoff games at the end of the season. However, he is not much of a pass rusher and he has an inconsistent motor.
14. New Orleans Saints (from Packers) – DE Marcus Davenport (UTSA)
The Saints moved up from No.27 in order to get Davenport. They gave up a first round pick in next year’s draft, which is a steep price to pay. Davenport has ideal size with very long arms. He is an athlete with great speed. He is also a good run defender. But he is raw. He needs to improve as a pass rusher. His instincts and awareness are average. He needs to play with better leverage. He is another overrated prospect in this draft.
15. Oakland Raiders (from Cardinals) – OT Kolton Miller (UCLA)
The Raiders missed out on the Notre Dame tackle Mike McGlinchey. Then they proceeded to trade down from the No.10 spot. They are addressing a position of need, but this is a reach. Miller is a terrific athlete with ideal size. He was a player on the rise after the Combine. He is a good run defender and sustains his blocks well. He started at LT for one year and has upside. However, he plays too tall and struggles against quicker speed rushers on the outside. His best fit would be at RT at the next level. He is one of the more overrated players at his position.
16. Buffalo Bills (from Ravens) – LB Tremaine Edmunds (Virginia Tech)
GM Brandon Beane has been burning up the phone lines. The Bills traded up again in the first round. They sent the 22nd overall pick and the 65th selection in the third round to the Ravens in exchange for this pick and a fifth rounder (No. 154). Edmunds is a physical freak and is only 19 years old. He has ideal size, long arms, excellent athleticism and great speed. He posted back-to-back seasons with 100+tackles. He is very versatile and can play multiple positions in different schemes. His instincts, awareness and hand usage are below average. He is a boom or bust prospect with huge potential.
17. Los Angeles Chargers – S Derwin James (Florida State)
This could turn out to be a major steal in the first round. The Chargers stayed put, and James fell into their lap. He is a safety with major upside. He has great size, speed and athleticism. James displays good instincts and excels against the run. He is a physical hitter and is a good blitzer. He is a work in progress in coverage, but he has shown the ability to cover TE’s, RB’s and WR’s in man coverage.
18. Green Bay Packers (from Seahawks) – CB Jaire Alexander (Louisville)
The Packers were busy in the first round. They traded down from No.14 and picked up a first rounder from the Saints in the 2019 NFL Draft. Then they gave up a third rounder and a sixth rounder in this year’s draft in order to move up from No.27 to this spot. They drafted Alexander who is an undersized cornerback with great speed and athleticism. He shows solid instincts, quick feet and good ball skills. His lateral quickness really stands out on film. He is also willing in run support and will help in the return game. He has a tendency to get overaggressive in coverage and bites on play fakes. There are also durability concerns.
19. Dallas Cowboys – LB Leighton Vander Esch (Boise State)
Most people expected WR to be the selection, but the Cowboys were linked to Vander Esch. He has been a prospect on the rise ever since the Combine. He had a tremendous year and won the Mountain West Defensive Player of the Year. He is an athletic LB with terrific size, sideline-to-sideline speed and good instincts. He is a one-year wonder with durability concerns. He also needs to improve his strength.
20. Detroit Lions – OG/C Frank Ragnow (Arkansas)
Ragnow is versatile and can play either guard or center at the next level. He has ideal size and is strong at the point of attack. He is an excellent run blocker. He is a tough, nasty OL who finishes his blocks. He had his share of struggles against quicker DT’s in pass protection.
21. Cincinnati Bengals (from Bills) – C Billy Price (Ohio State)
I am glad Price was selected in the first round. He has started a lot of games over his career. He is an explosive, nasty blocker with great strength. He plays with very good leverage and technique. He is a natural knee bender and displays proper hand placement. He is pretty athletic and he excels in space on pulls and traps.
22. Tennessee Titans (from Ravens via Bills via Chiefs) – LB Rashaan Evans (Alabama)
Titans traded up a couple of spots for the Alabama LB. Evans had a good 2017 season. He is an athletic LB with very good speed. He is a physical tackler and an underrated blitzer. His instincts are very average. He needs to do a better job shedding blocks. Durability is another issue.
23. New England Patriots (from Rams) – OG Isaiah Wynn (Georgia)
Patriots love versatile OL that can play multiple positions. Wynn played LT last season. But his best fit would be as a guard or center at the next level. He is an athletic OL with quick feet who plays with great knee bend and sustains his blocks well. He shows excellent short area quickness and finishes his blocks. Great value pick for New England.
24. Carolina Panthers – WR D.J. Moore (Maryland)
The Panthers continue their search for the No.1 WR. I didn’t have a first round grade on him. Frankly, Moore is an overrated WR in this draft. He tested really well at the Combine, and his stock was on the rise. But I don’t see 4.4 speed on the field. He is not quick in and out of his breaks. He needs to improve his route running, and I question whether he can separate at the next level. He is not physical and will struggle against press coverage.
25. Baltimore Ravens (from Titans) – TE Hayden Hurst (South Carolina)
This was a position of need for the Ravens because Maxx Williams has been a complete bust. Hurst is a former professional baseball player who emerged this year. He is going to be a 25 year-old rookie. He is an athletic TE with good size and very good speed. He shows excellent hands. Hurst needs to get stronger and continue to improve as a blocker and as a route runner.
26. Atlanta Falcons – WR Calvin Ridley (Alabama)
There was a time when he was projected to go in the top 10. But the Falcons get another weapon for Matt Ryan. Ridley has very good speed and can stretch the field vertically. He is a smooth route runner. He is quick in and out of his breaks. He shows an extra gear in the open field. There are questions about his slight build and he has a tough time getting off press coverage. He has had issues with focus drops. He is also an older prospect who is not much of a blocker.
27. Seattle Seahawks (from Packers via Saints) – RB Rashaad Penny (San Diego State)
They traded down from the 18th selection and picked up an extra third and a sixth round pick this year. The Seahawks shocked everyone by selecting RB Rashaad Penny. This is a player that should have been available on Day 2. They also passed on more talented backs like Derrius Guice, Sony Michel and Ronald Jones II who were still on the board. Seattle loves to make picks outside the box.
28. Pittsburgh Steelers – S Terrell Edmunds (Virginia Tech)
Another unexpected selection at the end of the first round. He had a day two grade. His brother Tremaine was drafted by the Bills with the 16th selection. They are the first pair of brothers ever drafted in the first round of the NFL Draft. Terrell is a great athlete with good size and outstanding speed. He would be better off playing closer to the line of scrimmage. He changes directions well, but needs to become a more consistent tackler.
29. Jacksonville Jaguars – DT Taven Bryan (Florida)
Bryan has good size and build. He has a lightning quick first step and tremendous strength. He is extremely athletic and versatile. He sheds blocks quickly and plays with a non-stop motor. However, he relies on his athleticism too much. He needs to improve his hand usage, instincts and pass rush repertoire moves. He has tremendous upside. This was one of my favorite picks at the end of the the first round.
30. Minnesota Vikings – CB Mike Hughes (UCF)
He was a one-year starter at UCF. Hughes transferred from the JUCO ranks after starting his career at North Carolina. Despite his size, he is a tough corner who excels in off man and zone coverage. He needs to become a better tackler. He needs to improve his overall technique and footwork, and there is no better teacher than Mike Zimmer.
31. New England Patriots – RB Sony Michel (Georgia)
I predicted that Derrius Guice was going to be the pick here, they drafted Michel. He is a downhill runner with good vision and a tremendous burst. He is a solid receiver coming out of the backfield and is a good pass protector. He doesn’t have a lot of tread on his tires. There are concerns about his durability and ball security.
32. Baltimore Ravens (from Eagles) – QB Lamar Jackson (Louisville)
In his last draft, GM Ozzie Newsome decided to draft a QB. Jackson is an exciting playmaker. He is a terrific runner who shows a tremendous acceleration and has a knack for making defenders miss in the open field. He has improved as a pocket passer. He has good arm strength, a quick release and a nice touch on downfield throws. His accuracy in the short/intermediate area needs to improve. He has to fix his footwork issues and improve his field vision.
